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The story
In Toyama City’s national census, suspicion has emerged that city officials treated households the census takers had struck off — for having no actual residents — as “existing,” without any basis. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications views this as an inflation of the population count and has launched an on-site investigation; media outlets have also reportedly received a tip alleging similar padding occurred in the census five years ago. On the forum, opinions were split over whether the motive for the padding was to boost local allocation tax grants, or to protect the 400,000-population threshold required for core city status, and over whether the Ministry or Toyama City bears the responsibility.
Regarding the over-reporting in Toyama City’s national census, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has indicated “there is suspicion the population was padded.” It states that households which census takers had struck off for having no actual residents were treated by city officials as existing, without any basis.
Source: 47news.jp / Original article here
What people said
The numbers won't add up anyway
Plenty of people never transfer their residency records
The census also counts homeless people who have no residency record at all
Yeah, I think so too
Once a gap shows up it looks suspicious — there's not much upside to doing it
Does it change grant money or something?
It changes the grant amount
The population share probably weighs heavily in the local allocation tax grant
There's a ton of subsidies that get paid out based on population ratio
A while back a municipality in Aichi Prefecture padded its count — it had about 49,800 people and inflated it by 200 to hit 50,000 so it could become a city
Simply put, the grant money goes up
Someone mentioned the ratio increasing around the time of that recent news, but I can't find the source
The subsidy amount changing seems plausible though
Below is based on the resident registry count, but it's a 10-million-yen jump
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/001631102.pdf
4. Self-Reliance Support Consultation Program
Population 300,000–under 400,000: ¥40,000,000
Population 400,000–under 500,000: ¥50,000,000
*Population here refers to the number of people recorded in the resident registry as of January 1 of the prior year in each municipality, as reported to the Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications under the Ministry's "Survey on Population, Vital Statistics, and Number of Households Based on the Resident Registry."
Toyama City "over-reported" its census population — suspicion the padding was "to protect the 400,000 milestone" — Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications conducts on-site inspection — media also received a tip that "the survey five years ago was padded too"
https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/1114091
It's not even functioning as a country anymore at this point
It wasn't the national government that did it, it was the municipality
Put "Toyama City" in there properly
Same thing though
Toyama City just sends the data
It's the Ministry that compiles, finalizes, and publishes it
The responsibility is on the Ministry
The Ministry normally wouldn't be the one actually carrying out population padding
The local allocation tax grant is based on population ratio
The local grant money goes up
LOL that's got nothing to do with Oita (wordplay: "大分" can mean both "Oita Prefecture" and "quite a while") — this is Toyama, do you even know your geography?
The almighty GDP per capita
Japan's the only country in the world still calculating it that way lol
What kind of idiot includes people who aren't even working in the per-capita GDP count
Oh wait — that idiot is Japan lol
America's stats are way more of a mess lolol
There's technically already a criminal complaint filed
It genuinely is a crime
In the Higashiura Town census-padding case, the civil servant involved was properly arrested
If anything, it feels more like they just wanted to save face by holding onto the 400,000 mark?
If 400,000 turns out to be the true number, losing core city status would be a serious problem, right?
According to Mr./Ms. Itsushima's explanation,
maintaining a population more than double the 200,000 threshold required for core city status apparently increases the budget scale for subsidy and grant allotments to businesses.
The total population figure comes inclusive of foreign residents
It has dropped below that (´・ω・)
The employment stats came out bad, so they fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics — that's hilarious
Isn't it the other way around?
I recall Trump was furious because they kept making the numbers look good and never cut interest rates
There's no such thing as a "Bureau of Labor Statistics" here
Don't go inventing fictional organizations
It'd be the Labor Force Population Statistics Division, Statistical Survey Department, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
Or the Employment, Wages and Welfare Statistics Office, under the Director for Policy Planning, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
That one had me cracking up lol
With the government shutdown, they just had zero data for an entire month — totally unchecked.
Background and Key Points of Debate
Part of the local allocation tax grant is calculated in proportion to population, so padding population figures can serve as a financial incentive for municipalities. At the same time, Toyama City’s population sits around 400,000 — well above the core city designation threshold (population of 200,000 or more) — which led some on the forum to argue that “the goal wasn’t the grant money so much as preserving the city’s standing as a core city and its subsidy allotments for businesses.” Additionally, while the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is responsible for compiling and publishing census results, the actual survey work is carried out by municipalities as a “statutory entrusted function,” leaving the question of where responsibility for errors lies somewhat murky under the current system. There have been past cases of a municipality in Aichi Prefecture padding its numbers to meet the population threshold for becoming a city, and of a civil servant in Higashiura Town being arrested for padding census figures — whether the Toyama City case similarly turns into a criminal matter will depend on how things develop.
*This article is compiled as an excerpt and summary of the 5ch (News Express+) thread “Suspicion of population padding and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications….”
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