Coffee prices soar and the ‘2050 problem’ looms — companies bet on coffee-like alternative drinks

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The story

Against the backdrop of soaring coffee bean prices and the “2050 problem” — the concern that climate change will shrink the land suitable for growing coffee in the future — companies have been rolling out alternative drinks aimed at capturing a coffee-like taste, one after another. The idea is to drum up demand with affordably priced products while also preparing for a future in which coffee beans become harder to source. On the thread, posters brought up existing substitutes like dandelion coffee, brown rice coffee, and coffee made from civet cat or elephant droppings, speculated that Japan might eventually become suitable for growing coffee itself, and pointed out that the weak yen has driven up prices for everything from coffee beans to orange juice — the discussion ranged from the merits of alternative coffee to climate change and currency exchange rates.

As a new development in the soft drink market this year, alternative (substitute) coffee drinks have been announced one after another.

With coffee bean prices soaring and doubts growing over the sustainability of coffee bean production, the aim is twofold: to drum up demand with affordably priced products that still deliver a coffee-like taste, and to prepare for a future in which cost and sourcing issues make it harder to build product lineups around actual coffee beans.

Behind this lies the “coffee 2050 problem” — a warning that even as global coffee consumption rises, the land suitable for growing coffee may shrink due to the effects of climate change.

Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here

What people said

8AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:46
Guess we'll just make coffee out of rice then… (´・ω・`)
107AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:05
Re: #8
Apparently rice-based alternative coffee already exists as a product — sold as brown rice coffee / brown rice decaf.

Never tried it myself though.
122AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:07
Re: #8
By 2050 rice will be so precious that burning it to make coffee will get you arrested.
12AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:47
A health YouTuber featured it, but there's already elephant dung coffee out there.
Do these people have zero pride as human beings?
127AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:10
Re: #12
By that logic, civet cat poop coffee (kopi luwak) isn't any different.
14AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:48
The current growing regions just stop being suitable — other regions will simply become suitable instead.
24AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:50
Re: #14
It's not that simple just because the temperature zone shifts. Insects, soil, drainage, nutrient balance with other plants — all of that gets thrown off too.
142AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:12
Re: #14
"Suitable zones" for civilization shift too, but building one up from scratch takes massive resources and decades.
22AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:50
Coffee got so expensive I downgraded to bottled coffee. Guess Japan's losing out to overseas buyers thanks to the weak yen.
38AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:52
Re: #22
Isn't it selling at a high price because we won the bidding war? If we'd lost, we'd simply have empty shelves.
161AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:15
Re: #22
Is there any bottled coffee that's actually good? I looked for one for a while but gave up — couldn't find any.
34AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:51
Feels like BOSS Black got watered down recently — from 'coffee' to a mere 'coffee beverage' (a lower-grade category under Japan's labeling rules with less actual coffee content).
63AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:56
Re: #34
Hills Bros' Major got reclassified as a 'coffee beverage' too.
https://cdn.askul.co.jp/img/product/3L3/EN99673_3L3.jpg
76AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:57
Re: #63
The aroma and richness just vanished lol
84AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:58
Re: #63
"Contents renewed" too (wink wink)
39AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:52
Won't Japan eventually become a suitable place to grow coffee too?
170AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:16
Re: #39
No chance — labor costs and everything else here are still too high.
40AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:52
Orange juice got pricier too, since Japan's losing the bidding war overseas thanks to the weak yen. So many things are turning bad now.
179AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:18
Re: #40
Mandarin oranges are in trouble for a different reason too — farmers are starting to switch over to avocados.
78AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:57
I've heard there's coffee made from cat poop. Might just be some fake article floating around online though.
89AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:59
Re: #78
There IS coffee made from civet cat poop (kopi luwak).
92AnonymousSep 27, 2026 16:59
Re: #78
Pretty sure a civet isn't actually a cat though.
112AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:05
I wish they'd stop calling it 'lightly sweetened' when it's loaded with acesulfame K and tastes ridiculously sweet.
114AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:06
Re: #112
Apparently that stuff is addictive too.
163AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:15
Re: #112
Acesulfame K tastes disgustingly bad so you can spot it instantly — please just stop using it. Apparently about 10% of people carry a gene that makes them taste it as awful, and I must be one of them, because it's bad enough to make me want to kill someone.
135AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:11
The office coffee at my workplace is bad on a level of 'how do you even manage to make it taste this bad?' It tastes like what I imagine you'd get from pouring water over burnt paper trash and drinking the runoff. Coffee beans are precious — why ruin them this badly?
225AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:27
Re: #135
That's probably dandelion coffee (´・ω・`)
https://image.rakuten.co.jp/healthylife/cabinet/s/tanpopo/tanpopo-2.jpg
Requested by a woman at the office, I bet…
138AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:11
Stop growing rice at a loss and just plant coffee instead.
155AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:14
Re: #138
Coffee can barely be grown in Okinawa as it is — no way it'll work on the mainland.
164AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:15
Re: #155
Alright, let's grow it on Iwo Jima then. Though right now it's off-limits to civilians and is a JMSDF base.
171AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:16
Re: #155
But the climate's been so messed up these past few years that Honshu might turn subtropical eventually.
145AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:13
Well, there are already 'beer-like' drinks (happoshu), so why not 'coffee-like' drinks too.
Margarine as a 'butter-like' thing.
Imitation crab as a 'crab-like' thing.
Eggplant unaju as an 'eel-like' thing (eggplant grilled and served eel-style, a mock-unagi dish).
180AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:18
Re: #145
Even margarine is a processed product made from vegetable oil, but with this artificial coffee I have no idea what it's even made from. Is it 100% chemically synthesized?
185AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:19
Re: #180
The vanilla flavor in ice cream is made from petroleum, you know.
199AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:21
Re: #180
Regular coffee is 98-99% water anyway though.
152AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:13
Coffee futures are crashing hard, so prices should be coming down soon, right?
203AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:22
Re: #152
For some reason, coffee bean prices are only surging in Japan.
209AnonymousSep 27, 2026 17:23
Re: #152
Well, China's coffee bubble is over too.

Background and key points on this topic

The “coffee 2050 problem” is a long-standing industry warning that climate change will drastically shrink the land suitable for growing Arabica and other coffee varieties in the future, pointing to a long-term risk in sourcing raw materials. The recent rise in coffee bean prices discussed in the thread, by contrast, is driven mainly by short-term factors like the weak yen and swings in international markets — it’s worth treating that as a separate issue from the “2050 problem” described in the article, since the two are different in nature. Also, alternative coffees aren’t limited to novelties made from elephant or civet cat droppings; caffeine-free options like dandelion coffee and brown rice coffee have long been sold commercially as everyday beverages. So this latest round of moves by various companies is less about new technology and more an attempt to push existing alternatives into the mainstream.

*This article is composed from excerpts and a summary of the 5ch (News Express+) thread “A wave of alternative coffee drinks — products offering a coffee-like taste aim to ‘stimulate demand,’ against the backdrop of the world’s ‘coffee 2050 problem’.”

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