New Rice Prices Set to Plummet: 2026 Harvest JA Advance Payments Down 20-40%

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It has emerged that the “provisional payment” JA advances to farmers for the 2026 rice harvest has fallen roughly 20 to 40 percent from last year. Following last year’s price spike, the sudden drop sparked mixed reactions on 5ch: some offered level-headed takes like “it’s the market’s call, nothing to be done,” while others vented lingering resentment over last year’s rice-shortage panic, questioned the authenticity of premium brands like Uonuma, and argued over the realities of part-time farming.

Mainichi Shimbun

August 21, 2026, Tokyo Morning Edition

It was learned on the 20th that prices for the 2026 rice harvest are expected to fall sharply compared to last year’s spike. JA groups nationwide have begun setting the “provisional payments” they advance to rice farmers when collecting the new crop, and in Hokkaido and three Hokushin’etsu prefectures the payments have dropped roughly 20 to 40 percent year-on-year. The decline looks set to spread to other regions too, fueling growing concern among farmers that it will squeeze their finances.

Source: mainichi.jp / Original article here

2Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:45:08.64ID:7cv1Yp6T0
Prices are set by the market, nothing to be done about it
51Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:53:23.27ID:bs+bEfQt0
>>2
Right, farmers became part-timers for exactly this reason, so no worries.
Average age is 70, so they can handle whatever happens
86Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:01:32.61ID:CxOtYvyy0
>>2
Well, that's the word from the minister the rice-growing regions themselves elected.
7Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:46:22.79ID:iRxmKyRi0
Koshihikari's too expensive — 3,000 yen for 5kg tax included would be fair
26Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:49:07.23ID:yv4IK7z80
>>7
Still too high. Half that is the fair price
16Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:47:47.91ID:qzJMy90m0
I can already picture cheap "Uonuma-brand" Koshihikari flooding the market in bulk (Uonuma is normally a premium, pricey rice brand — the implication being fakes or mislabeling)
35Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:50:05.64ID:zyJwUeiq0
Why not just give rice farmers a tax-free subsidy of about 2 million yen a year?
81Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:00:02.92ID:bs+bEfQt0
>>35
Then rice farmers would multiply infinitely lol — there's no law against a baby being a farmer.
The smaller the planted area gets, the more "efficient" it becomes lol
38Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:51:16.59ID:DY3B1Alb0
If prices had fallen below the normal annual average, farmers would need support — but is there really any point comparing to last year's abnormal spike?
85Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:01:22.14ID:bs+bEfQt0
>>38
You guys were the ones using the COVID crash as the baseline to complain prices had "spiked"
42Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:51:40.16ID:79qhu6Aq0
Went to Welcia and Koshihikari was 2,500 yen.
Wasn't single-brand so I passed, but
by September it'll probably be down to 2,000
67Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 07:57:21.95ID:2spsnZz40
So now the question is whether consumers who gave up on rice will come back
91Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:02:23.53ID:D9k/upqr0
>>67
People weren't really abandoning rice as much as claimed to begin with.
Consumption only dropped a few percent from last year.
And most of the people who held off buying because of the high prices will come back now that it's cheaper.

There just aren't many people like you guys boycotting out of principle (misplaced grudges and payback feelings).
Reality (the data) is harsh.
246Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:37:38.26ID:NmoK2lc80
>>67
Since it suddenly got cheaper, I think demand's coming back a bit.
Saw unsold udon marked down at the supermarket
131Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:11:06.79ID:BsWUhF2N0
The other day at my local home center,
Akitakomachi was going for 5,000 yen per 10kg.
That's what I'd call a win-win price for farmers and consumers alike
141Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:14:37.40ID:H/AgwDUp0
>>131
That'll be the day it becomes the ceiling price instead of the floor
143Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:14:45.28ID:8eT0KVqJ0
>>131
Akitakomachi was on sale for 1,990 yen per 5kg
132Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:11:13.32ID:jHRaoaEb0
During the price spike, a lot of farmers came off pretty arrogant in interviews
137Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:13:28.87ID:H/AgwDUp0
>>132
It's less the actual farmers and more the type who barely own any land but run contract operations claiming to "farm 100 hectares" — those are the ones with the attitude
140Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:14:27.44ID:DVCbdZHo0
>>132
I remember a farmer from Kagoshima saying there was bound to be a backlash so he couldn't celebrate.
I want to believe he actually prepared for the price drop
152Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:16:51.33ID:TSRTladO0
I've got no connection to farming, but saying farmers should just be kept alive but not thriving, silently growing rice with zero profit — isn't that a bit much?
I don't go that far
160Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:18:18.98ID:SITrCyZ10
>>152
If they think they can sell high, they should sell high — whether consumers buy is up to consumers.

What's the problem here?
218Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:28:47.00ID:tN/g9/wO0
>>160
The problem is the farmers who were barely scraping by before two years ago.
They got jerked around for these past two years and now we're right back where we started.
JA is supposed to be "close" to those farmers.
If JA loses its public, cooperative character, it's just a private company.
At this point I think farmers should pull their savings out of JA Bank
and move their pensions elsewhere too
200Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:25:07.48ID:7OQmztQl0
For part-time farmers, a rice paddy doesn't take that much work and it's an easy system that nets a few hundred thousand yen a year in pocket money.
Last year it was basically a bonus though
202Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:25:32.35ID:SITrCyZ10
>>200
And fudging your taxes a bit too
212Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:27:11.14ID:vKv1tTCv0
>>200
Register your personal car as agricultural-use too and taxes are cheaper, plus better mortgage terms
252Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 08:39:00.14ID:l/6KJdV10
>>200
If you think that, go try it yourself.
Every weekend from April to October, zero days off.
Even summer means canal upkeep, weeding, and pesticide spraying.
To avoid working in near-40°C midday heat,
you start at 5 in the morning.

The big contract farming outfits
don't bother with canal upkeep or weeding,
so weeds clog the canals,
and even when you complain they don't lift a finger,
leaving the small and mid-size farmers to deal with it out of necessity —
that's the day-to-day reality.

*This article is compiled from excerpts and a summary of the 5ch (Breaking News+) thread “New Rice Prices Set to Plummet: 2026 Harvest JA Advance Payments Fall, Provisional Payments Down 20-40%.”

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