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The story
Oda, a highly touted high-school prospect, is reportedly set to hold a courtesy meeting with the Yomiuri Giants on the 10th — a sudden reversal from what had widely been assumed to be a done deal for an MLB challenge, and the news set 5ch abuzz. In the thread, posters debated everything tied to the career decision: the scale of the signing bonus, the harsh realities of minor-league life in the U.S., and the career paths of players who go through NPB before heading overseas. Many pointed to Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki as examples of how hard it is to jump straight to MLB out of high school, while others argued the decision shouldn’t be made on bonus money alone.
What people said
Let's aim for the majors five years from now!
Depends on the goal, doesn't it
If you want a long career as a pro ballplayer, going through NPB is the better bet
Especially after seeing Re: #8
If so, he's better off moving to the US young and building a foundation and connections there
If that's the case, going with Yomiuri makes even more sense — he can build connections and secure his future
Doesn't Matsui still hold some kind of position with the Yankees?
or "there's no contract as good as I thought"?
If money's the priority, going through NPB is the only choice
He'd get a dedicated interpreter, so there's no reason to stick around Japan
Does he actually get one?
It's a world where some guys never pan out and retire after about five years
If MLB is offering a signing bonus of like ¥700 million, going straight to MLB might actually be the lower-risk option
"Possibly up to ¥800 million!" is just hype getting ahead of the story — realistically it's more like ¥200-300 million
Rookie League → Single-A → Double-A → Triple-A → the majors
That's almost certainly a non-negotiable condition the MLB club laid out
That route is just how it works, but maybe as a sheltered high schooler he was dreaming of an instant "straight-to-the-majors debut!"
They're all desperate to get out as soon as possible
Being in the minors doesn't automatically make you better either
That's not necessarily true though
The ball itself is different over there to begin with, so I get wanting to adjust to it as soon as possible
At the end of the day, without going through NPB you just don't get name recognition in Japan
Is he really considered the kind of player worth betting the entire budget on?
He is that caliber of a player
Does today's NPB even have value?
Why do you think NPB has no value?
Ohtani and Yamamoto alone send its value through the roof
There's just no way that happens
Even starting out in NPB, he wouldn't be putting up numbers like that in year one
There's no way a guy straight out of high school jumps straight to the majors lol
If you don't know how the MLB system works, keep quiet
Is the minor-league development system still built on that "hunger" mentality — basically "claw your way up yourself"?
Being properly developed within a club's own farm system seems like it'd be more cost-effective
Actually, you don't see college rookies either
Even the big-name rookies who made headlines don't get called up to the majors until they prove themselves in the minors
Even Mizorowski (ed.: a prospect who came up through junior college), spent three years in the minors
Oda isn't a physical elite type, so it'll probably take him five-plus years
For an 18-year-old who grew up comfortably in Japan and can't speak English, five years of minor-league life sounds pretty rough
Even if everything goes smoothly, it'll take at least three years to get up to the majors over there
To begin with, in American sports going to college is the norm, so there aren't many pros straight out of high school
The only guys who turn pro out of high school are the ones with family circumstances forcing it, or who are too far behind academically for college to be worth it, or who'd get cut off by NCAA eligibility rules anyway
A minor-league contract is basically like Japan's developmental-player contract
And each club has over 200 of those players
Even SoftBank, which is known for fierce competition, has only about 50
He is making it work though
At the end of the day the guy threw an NPB perfect game — he's a monster, a different class from Oda
He was 23 when he went over, so $6.5 million
He's taking a massive pay cut relative to his talent
Background and Key Points of Debate
When a high schooler signs directly with an MLB club after graduation instead of going through NPB, they typically start out in the Rookie League or Single-A/Double-A ball, and it usually takes several years to reach the majors — in the thread, Roki Sasaki’s signing bonus (about $6.5 million) from when he posted to a US club came up as a point of comparison. Going through NPB lets a player build a track record and name recognition via the registered-roster and developmental systems, while going straight to the US means facing fierce competition, with each club carrying roughly 200 players on minor-league contracts. Where the thread split was over whether the reported signing bonus figures alone are enough to judge the merits of going to the US, with some suggesting the widely reported “up to ¥800 million” figure is getting ahead of the story and the real number is more like ¥200-300 million. The actual circumstances behind the career decision itself await an announcement from Oda or those involved, and the thread’s discussion remains limited to a general comparison of the NPB and MLB systems.
※This article is compiled from excerpts and a summary of the 5ch (Nandemo Jikkyo G) thread “Oda-kun to visit the Giants on the 10th — sudden change of plans?!“.
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