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The story
The Financial Times reports — relayed by Bloomberg — that OpenAI expects a cumulative free cash flow deficit of up to $278 billion (roughly ¥43.6 trillion) between 2026 and the end of 2030. As capital spending explodes amid the generative AI boom while revenue fails to keep pace, the company is approaching what’s called a “death cross” — the point where cash burn overtakes income. On 5channel’s Newsplus board, reactions ranged from shock at the sheer scale of the deficit, to doubts over whether the massive spending on data centers and chips will ever pay off, to comparisons with companies like Google and Microsoft that already have solid revenue streams, and even claims that the debt is now so large OpenAI has effectively become “too big to fail.”
OpenAI Projects $278 Billion Free Cash Flow Deficit Through 2030 — FT
(Bloomberg) — U.S.-based OpenAI expects its free cash flow deficit to reach $278 billion (roughly ¥43.6 trillion) from 2026 through the end of 2030.
“Death Cross” Looming — OpenAI’s $278 Billion Deficit Forecast Poses a Reckoning for AI Investment
Source: newsdig.tbs.co.jp / Original article here
What people said
with AI advancing, will small/regional sash (window frame) manufacturers lose work? Go under?
They'll go under.
I'll skip the explanation, but this time it's for real.
Maybe that's how it looks to an outsider, but really all that's happened is that even talentless people can now churn out shoddy, style-over-substance knockoffs of things humans used to do properly.
Stuff that anyone with a real eye for quality would dismiss instantly — but that people without one can produce — is only good for crappy YouTube thumbnails or cheap filler videos. It's barely better than nothing for showing some vague concept image in a meeting.
Google's behind, but they'll survive.
Well, they can drag YouTube, Search, and everything else along with them…
Companies with a solid revenue pillar seem likely to survive, but even Google and Microsoft could end up in trouble.
Even SoftBank can't touch a deficit this size.
If you're moving money around in a world like this all the time, your sense of scale probably goes numb — you'd start thinking a few trillion yen in losses is no big deal.
if it turns out AI couldn't generate profit
and the company folds carrying all that debt,
the stock goes to zero and that much money
just vanishes from the world?
Since the money's going into data centers and custom chips, it can't even be resold — looks like it'll just turn into bad debt.
It doesn't really vanish, does it?
It becomes flesh and blood for Sam and the execs personally, and circulates back into society.
a sycophantic chatterbox robot.
Why don't you put your phone down and get some rest today (mimicking the sycophantic, reassuring tone AI chatbots use).
Why is that?
For training data, and to nudge you toward the paid tier.
Only if organized crime has enough people with the right skills, in sufficient numbers.
If they could charge every free GPT user about 1,000 yen a month, would that even cover it?
Though for someone like me who uses it moderately, if it disappeared it'd just be like losing one toy — no real trouble — so I wouldn't pay for it.
Well, 99% of people would rather go without than actually pay for it.
Meanwhile the minority using it hard for work — individuals and companies — would pay even 100,000 yen a month per seat.
de facto nationalization of the AI company — corruption included — is basically the foregone conclusion.
Yeah, when the debt's that huge you can't let it collapse lol.
Same with individuals apparently — once your debt tops 100 million yen, the collectors actually ease up and you get some breathing room.
Palantir will still be around too.
Feels like this just ends in bankruptcy after running massive deficits.
Only option is locking users in and jacking up prices hard, but there are too many competitors for that to work.
Plenty of companies would want the talent and know-how, but the debt's so massive it's on a level nobody can touch.
but stepping back, the real question is whether AI actually makes money.
The data centers popping up all over Japan might end up like the solar panel farms built by companies that went bankrupt — abandoned for years with nobody taking responsibility.
They need to crack down on that scammy sales pitch too — the "property taxes will enrich the local area" line.
Microsoft and Google have already succeeded at monetizing this, and demand for data centers is still growing, so I doubt they'll end up abandoned to that extent.
Because they're running hundreds of thousands of machines that cost millions of yen each, 24/7, lol.
Company A sees a rival investing and doubles down, then another company sees that and doubles down again.
It turned into a game of chicken based on the assumption "if everyone else is doing it, it must be profitable."
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Goy-iZNaMAAqrAO.jpg
Background and Talking Points
It’s worth noting that this ¥43.6 trillion figure isn’t from OpenAI’s own official earnings disclosure — it comes from internal documents reportedly obtained by the Financial Times and relayed by Bloomberg. A “death cross” is a financial term for the point where cumulative investment spending keeps outpacing revenue growth until cash flow becomes unsustainable — a phrase commonly used when analyzing growth-stage companies. In the thread, some pointed to precedents like SoftBank, which has survived years of deliberate loss-making investment, while others worried that the massive spending on data centers could turn into abandoned assets, much like Japan’s solar power installations. Opinions were split on whether the AI industry’s capital spending race is legitimate forward investment or simply a bubble.</parameter>
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*This article is compiled as excerpts and a summary from the 5channel (Newsplus) thread “OpenAI’s Deficit: ¥43.6 Trillion — ‘Death Cross’ Looms From 2026 to End of 2030.”
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