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The story
After the market close on September 24, Cover Corporation (5253, TSE Growth) announced it was raising its ordinary income forecast for the first half (April–September) of the fiscal year ending March 2027 from ¥1.93 billion to ¥3.4 billion — a 76.2% upward revision. That works out to 27.2% profit growth year-on-year, putting the company on track for its highest first-half profit in two fiscal years — yet its full-year forecast of ¥7 billion was left unchanged. The announcement landed on the same day a new Hololive talent held her debut stream, adding to the buzz, but on 5ch, posters pointed out that the stock had actually fallen, with comments like “It’s tanking, though?” Replies piled up debating why the stock got sold off despite the strong earnings.
What people said
The company revised its forecast for cumulative ordinary income (non-consolidated) for the first half (April–September) of the fiscal year ending March 2027, from a previous ¥1.93 billion to ¥3.4 billion (versus ¥2.67 billion in the same period last year) — a 76.2% upward revision.
That's a sharp turnaround to 27.2% profit growth, putting the company on track to post its highest first-half profit in two fiscal years.
Meanwhile, the full-year ordinary income forecast was left unchanged at the previous ¥7 billion (versus ¥7.06 billion last fiscal year).
For reference, back when Amane Kanata (a Hololive talent) graduated, she alone wiped out ¥6.5 billion in market cap.
Yeah, that's exactly why they basically don't want any of their talents to quit.
Is there any growth potential left at all?
Let's release a PC metaverse game.
But can the "Hololive piggies" (a derogatory nickname for hardcore Hololive fans) actually keep up?
Magic's a world where a single deck can run you hundreds of thousands of yen.
Male viewers just cheer from under the kotatsu, but female viewers actually go out and work for their oshi.
MTG? Doesn't seem like there's anyone around with enough know-how to even coach her, so it probably won't take off.
Just grab a Commander deck and you can easily get started for around ¥30,000.
I do like the name, at least.
I was screening stocks on Market Speed (a trading platform) too, and about jumped when I saw Cover down roughly 10%.
Background and Key Points
Cover is a VTuber talent agency listed on the TSE Growth market. It raised its ordinary income forecast for the first half (April–September) of the fiscal year ending March 2027 from ¥1.93 billion to ¥3.4 billion — a 76.2% upward revision — marking 27.2% year-on-year profit growth and its highest first-half profit in two fiscal years. At the same time, it left its full-year forecast of ¥7 billion (versus ¥7.06 billion in actual results the previous year) unchanged. This combination — a blowout first half paired with an unrevised full-year outlook — appears to have triggered selling from investors worried the good news was already priced in, or that growth will slow in the second half. What fueled the thread was the mismatch between what should have been “great news” — a rookie debut plus strong earnings — and the stock actually falling, with the mocking thread title clashing with the real market reaction. Cover has also seen its market cap swing by billions of yen in the past purely on news of a single talent’s graduation, a reminder of the unusual structure in which an intangible individual VTuber can directly move a listed company’s stock price. Without that context, all that’s left is the simple question: “the earnings were great, so why did it drop?”
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Nandemo Jikkyo G) thread “Hololive’s stock price explodes on new talent addition + record-high sales outlook wwwwwwwwww”.
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