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The story
We’re covering a thread on 5ch’s “Hardware/Industry (Geha)” board that kicked off with a Nintendo fan’s post claiming “Switch 2 got incredibly lucky, launching right before the economy went south.” The post came as Switch 2 entered its second year on the market, facing growing headwinds from soaring semiconductor and memory prices. Some commenters dismissed the take as “naive,” while others looked back at Nintendo’s console history, arguing things like “PS5’s timing was actually far more precarious” and “most of Nintendo’s hardware fortunes have come down to their own decisions.” Opinions were split on both Switch 2’s sales trajectory and where memory prices are headed next.
What people said
Did your brain scramble while you were asleep?
209: Anonymous (Desperate as Always) 2026/09/07 (Mon) 05:47:56.93 ID:Kh7kKSeD0
Switch2's launch timing was good too
Can wait and see on concrete plans for the next-gen console for a while yet
I made this thread after seeing that dumb post
The fact that you didn't quote it when starting the thread means you know the stretch is a bit much, right? 😏
204 Anonymous (Desperate as Always) 09/07 (Mon) 05:33:30.23 ID:Kh7kKSeD0
Looks like Nintendo's going to end up the only one still doing console hardware
Since they're not competing on power, they can maneuver however they like
209 Anonymous (Desperate as Always) 09/07 (Mon) 05:47:56.93 ID:Kh7kKSeD0
Switch2's launch timing was good too
Can wait and see on concrete plans for the next-gen console for a while yet
226 Anonymous (Desperate as Always) 09/07 (Mon) 06:13:43.30 ID:Kh7kKSeD0
Re: #213
Power that creates a two-generation gap = too pricey to spread widely, and software development slows down too
A price aimed at wide adoption = won't produce a gap that big
Is that really so? 🤔
GameCube → Launched too late compared to the derided "Dreamcast" and PS2, died (despite not being underpowered)
Wii → Went dirt cheap on power but launched early, succeeded
Wii U → Died along with the already-dead Wii
Switch → Launched early, succeeded
Switch2 → Launched way later than PS5, on the verge of dying
That's basically Nintendo's pattern
About half of those were failures, really
Pretty much all self-inflicted wounds from their own decisions, lol
Looking at this, Switch2 is actually PS6's generation, huh
Though who knows if PS6 will even come out
The take is naive, but it's not completely off base either
How badly the price hikes will hurt and how it all shakes out is ultimately just everyone's guesswork anyway
That's exactly what this thread is for
They genuinely believe this, which is why they're still swinging the Switch bat around
Seriously, it's always this exact argument, it's exhausting
Comparing Switch and PS5 generation-wise is only natural, isn't it
PS6 isn't out yet so it's not even in the ring
Generation-wise it does line up, so it can't be helped
Because the Wii U's short lifespan pushed Nintendo into releasing their next-gen hardware early
Not sure what's so funny about that
It sold 20,000 units this week, so what do you think happens from here?
It costs 60,000 yen, you know?
It sold a ton before the price hike, so there's a cushion built up
Re: #31
It sold a ton before the price hike, so there's a cushion built up
38: Anonymous (Desperate as Always) 2026/09/07 (Mon) 11:55:58.88 ID:tdpsIei20
Re: #36
That first-year cushion is shrinking fast now
Europe barely has a trace left either
What happens now?
See, I'm properly drawing the line between year one and year two here
If they'd released Switch2 back then, the future would've looked different
Exactly this
A lot of people just don't get it
That first-year cushion is shrinking fast now
Europe barely has a trace left either
What happens now?
There's no actual numbers out for Europe though
Sites like VGChartz just make stuff up, so it's meaningless
That's just a forced argument
What matters is how the original Switch compares in the latest earnings figures, and the year-over-year numbers, right?
Got any actual counterargument?
https://chatgpt.com/share/6a9e2d37-7c84-83ee-8889-a44bc759a308
Switch2 isn't underperforming at all
What you're saying is nonsense
This exactly
Switch2 is what happens when you coast on Switch's pandemic-era success like an idiot and end up in this state
Well, the earnings reports are all over the place
What's all over the place is your goalposts
What happened to that cushion?
Fanboys love saying "They don't need to release until 2030!" but if you want to launch in 2030, contracts need to be locked in by 2028. That's obviously going to be expensive.
Conversely, if you sign the contracts in 2030, the actual launch won't happen until 2032 or later
And by the way, memory prices won't be back to normal even by 2030
Unlike COVID, AI demand isn't a temporary blip, so you'd better assume it's never coming back down
>And by the way, memory prices won't be back to normal even by 2030
Ever heard of the "silicon cycle" or the "super silicon cycle"?
Why don't you just Google it?
Re: #64's argument is basically "this time it's a super silicon cycle! (unlike the past)"
SK Hynix's own line is that this situation is a "super cycle" that blows past the normal silicon cycle
I honestly can't tell what ID:tdpsIei20 is trying to argue
If you're saying it's a "super silicon cycle" beyond even a super cycle
then Re: #64's point is correct, isn't it
They're projecting 660 billion yen in operating profit, so what exactly is the crisis?
That's not a crisis at all
Are you getting played by Geha (the console-war forum) hype? Have you actually checked the earnings report?
Isn't it just the "silicon cycle" / "super cycle"?
Is "super silicon cycle" even a real term?
Well, I dunno though
Now that you mention it, Switch2's second year has only been going a few months, hasn't it?
Isn't it too early to even compare?
You can compare it
Because there's a new negative factor: price hikes starting this month in the US and Europe too
Needless to say that includes Korea as well, and Re: #7 is worth looking at for how that plays out
It's not a factor you can just ignore
Background and Key Points of Debate
The backdrop here is the surge in semiconductor memory (DRAM and NAND) prices that has continued since around 2025. Explosive demand for AI has kept supply tight, and PC and console makers alike are facing rising production costs. Where the thread split was over whether this price surge is a temporary “silicon cycle” or a “new normal” where prices never return to previous levels. Switch2, having launched in 2025, appears to have secured production stock made before the price hikes, but the post doesn’t offer concrete statistics on post-hike sales trends or the reported slump in the European market — it’s mostly left to individual commenters’ interpretations. It’s also worth noting that the generational comparison between PS5 and PS6 remains speculative, since PS6 itself hasn’t even been announced.
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry [Geha]) thread “A Nintendo fan says: ‘Switch2 got incredibly lucky, launching right before the economy went south lol’ ← this one.”
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