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The story
TBS’s Sunday Drama Theater series ‘VIVANT’ Season 2 wrapped its finale on November 8, with the movie continuation set to open December 4. On 5ch’s Entertainment & Sports Express+ board, discussion centered on whether the film could clear the roughly ¥20 billion box-office mark set by ‘Bayside Shakedown’ and ‘Kokuho’ (lit. ‘National Treasure’), or even approach the numbers of an anime blockbuster like Demon Slayer. Amid reports that advance ticket sales had already topped ¥2 billion, bullish predictions based on simple math from household TV ratings clashed with cooler takes like “TV viewers and theater audiences aren’t the same thing” and “once it’s spoiled, repeat viewings won’t carry it.” Most posters ultimately settled on a prediction of around ¥10 billion.
“Could it be #1 in Japanese box-office history?” — the hopes riding on ‘VIVANT,’ the ¥20 billion wall set by ‘Bayside Shakedown’ and ‘Kokuho,’ and anime’s “pinnacle”
TBS’s Sunday Drama Theater series ‘VIVANT’ Season 2 reached its finale on November 8.
A relentless string of twists unfolded from the very start, and a loaded final scene set off a wave of fan theorizing once the broadcast ended. The continuation will presumably play out in the movie version, opening December 4.
Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here
What people said
Can't imagine many idiots going back for repeat viewings.
No way it beats Demon Slayer.
0% chance, lol
It'll become live-action's answer to Demon Slayer.
Only people who already watched the TV drama are even going to show up for this in the first place —
you can't just jump into that show partway through.
If 10% of those go see the movie, that's 5 million people.
5 million times ¥2,000 comes out to about ¥10 billion at best.
There's no way 50 million people in Japan actually watched it, lol.
You're putting way too much faith in ratings — though I do want the theaters packed.
He did tell a reporter, "Of course I'll do a drama if I'm offered one" —
but if VIVANT beats 'Bayside Shakedown 2,' that kind of talk will probably just die down.
That's ¥120 billion, lol
Counting overseas numbers is pointless.
That's like saying it can't beat Spider-Man.
Demon Slayer:
fantasy for domestic Japan
VIVANT:
fantasy aimed at the whole world
If anything, VIVANT ought to go shine on the global stage.
This industry has no future unless it smashes its lame old-boys'-club mentality.
Going by the people around me, it's only stirring up resentment.
I bet a good chunk of people lose interest the second they get spoiled.
Do you even know how many months Demon Slayer and Kokuho ran in theaters?
it just doesn't have the ingredients.
Learn a bit more about how box-office numbers actually work.
I'm telling you this for your own good —
stay humble.
I've sworn I will never, ever watch this show's sequels or anything related to it again, for the rest of my life.
If that anime currently hogging a ridiculous number of screens right now gets scaled back, it could climb even higher.
Though it's already a lock that it'll finish below Demon Slayer (lol)
Though it might beat Yuji Oda's movie or Kokuho.
unlike Chiikawa or Demon Slayer, this is the kind of content that gets you tagged as "that sketchy type."
Anyway, I'd guess around ¥12 billion.
Kohaku Uta Gassen (the New Year's Eve song contest), ~35% ratings: "Nobody watches that."
LOLOLOLOLOL
> VIVANT, ~20% ratings: "Literally every Japanese person is watching this! Who's the idiot not watching?"
My bad.
Also, I've never seen that Demon Slayer whatchamacallit either.
Stuff that becomes an actual social phenomenon is just on a different level.
This one's only a TV thing.
It should hit at least ¥3 billion.
Whether that's worth all the money spent on promotion, who knows.
That would actually count as a flop.
At ¥3 billion box office, the production side only pockets about ¥1 billion, lol.
Advance sales already passed ¥2 billion, so ¥3 billion is a breeze.
Whether it reaches ¥10 billion is a different story though.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HXFgqWQakAAFTey.jpg
Background and Key Points of the Debate
The phrase “the ¥20 billion wall” comes from the fact that few Japanese live-action films have ever reached that scale. ‘Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL’ is said to hold one of the top box-office grosses of any Japanese live-action film and has long been cited as the benchmark. Theatrical anime like Demon Slayer, on the other hand, tend to have figures that blend in overseas revenue and take on a life of their own, and posters in the thread pointed out that “comparing numbers that include overseas gross doesn’t make sense.” Where opinions split was over how far TV ratings can be converted into theater attendance — some argued straight from a 20%-plus household rating to an audience estimate via simple math, while others pushed back with “you’re putting way too much faith in ratings.” Another factor swaying the predictions was disagreement over whether a spoiler-heavy, theory-driven drama like this would see revenue boosted by repeat viewings, or whether audiences would feel satisfied after one watch and the film wouldn’t get a long run. This article excludes a handful of posts that inappropriately brought up ethnic background.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Entertainment & Sports Express+) thread “[Movie] Box-Office Hopes of “Could It Be #1 in Japanese History?” — VIVANT’s Run at the ¥20 Billion Wall Set by Bayside Shakedown and Kokuho, and Anime’s “Pinnacle”.”
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