Movie ‘VIVANT’ Takes Aim at the ¥20 Billion Box-Office Wall — Can It Reach Demon Slayer Territory? 5ch Weighs In

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The story

TBS’s Sunday Drama Theater series ‘VIVANT’ Season 2 wrapped its finale on November 8, with the movie continuation set to open December 4. On 5ch’s Entertainment & Sports Express+ board, discussion centered on whether the film could clear the roughly ¥20 billion box-office mark set by ‘Bayside Shakedown’ and ‘Kokuho’ (lit. ‘National Treasure’), or even approach the numbers of an anime blockbuster like Demon Slayer. Amid reports that advance ticket sales had already topped ¥2 billion, bullish predictions based on simple math from household TV ratings clashed with cooler takes like “TV viewers and theater audiences aren’t the same thing” and “once it’s spoiled, repeat viewings won’t carry it.” Most posters ultimately settled on a prediction of around ¥10 billion.

“Could it be #1 in Japanese box-office history?” — the hopes riding on ‘VIVANT,’ the ¥20 billion wall set by ‘Bayside Shakedown’ and ‘Kokuho,’ and anime’s “pinnacle”

TBS’s Sunday Drama Theater series ‘VIVANT’ Season 2 reached its finale on November 8.

A relentless string of twists unfolded from the very start, and a loaded final scene set off a wave of fan theorizing once the broadcast ended. The continuation will presumably play out in the movie version, opening December 4.

Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here

What people said

5AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:27
Finished watching all the way through the wire-transfer-fraud accounting episode — does it get good from here? Right now I'd give it like a 75 out of 100.
6AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:27
This isn't the kind of show you watch twice once you already know the twist.
Can't imagine many idiots going back for repeat viewings.
8AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:27
Huh?
No way it beats Demon Slayer.

0% chance, lol
9AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:27
It'll clear that bar for sure.
It'll become live-action's answer to Demon Slayer.
10AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:28
No way.
Only people who already watched the TV drama are even going to show up for this in the first place —
you can't just jump into that show partway through.
11AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:29
Just rough math, but a 20% household rating means something like 50 million people watched the drama, families included.
If 10% of those go see the movie, that's 5 million people.
5 million times ¥2,000 comes out to about ¥10 billion at best.
74AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:59
Re: #11
There's no way 50 million people in Japan actually watched it, lol.
You're putting way too much faith in ratings — though I do want the theaters packed.
12AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:29
Tremble and sleep, Yuji Oda (throwing his own famous 'Bayside Shakedown' catchphrase back at him)
18AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:32
Re: #12
He did tell a reporter, "Of course I'll do a drama if I'm offered one" —
but if VIVANT beats 'Bayside Shakedown 2,' that kind of talk will probably just die down.
13AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:29
Demon Slayer

That's ¥120 billion, lol
15AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:30
Re: #13
Counting overseas numbers is pointless.
That's like saying it can't beat Spider-Man.
22AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:34
Re: #15
Demon Slayer:
fantasy for domestic Japan

VIVANT:
fantasy aimed at the whole world

If anything, VIVANT ought to go shine on the global stage.
14AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:30
Don't expect much from Japanese movies that won't spend the money.
This industry has no future unless it smashes its lame old-boys'-club mentality.
17AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:32
It might be a big deal in Tokyo, but out in the regions it's probably more of a "meh," right?
19AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:32
Will it even clear ¥10 billion?
Going by the people around me, it's only stirring up resentment.
20AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:32
It won't even beat Chiikawa's ¥20 billion (practically locked in at this point).
21AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:33
The TV network is pushing it way too hard, and that's already made enough haters that it's a no-go.
24AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:36
This isn't the kind of film that gets a long theatrical run.
I bet a good chunk of people lose interest the second they get spoiled.
Do you even know how many months Demon Slayer and Kokuho ran in theaters?
25AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:36
Demon Slayer is out of reach for this —
it just doesn't have the ingredients.
26AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:36
Theory-crafting fans will watch it 3 to 5 times, so I bet it hits ¥21 billion at the box office.
27AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:37
There's a huge repeat-viewer crowd for this one, so ¥20 billion might genuinely just be a waypoint.
117AnonymousNov 15, 2026 20:18
Re: #27
Learn a bit more about how box-office numbers actually work.
28AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:38
Keep dreaming and it's gonna hurt later when reality sets in…

I'm telling you this for your own good —
stay humble.
29AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:38
The promo blitz has been so relentless I'm sick of it down to my soul.
I've sworn I will never, ever watch this show's sequels or anything related to it again, for the rest of my life.
32AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:40
If advance sales are already like that, I bet it hits ¥10 billion.
If that anime currently hogging a ridiculous number of screens right now gets scaled back, it could climb even higher.
33AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:41
Go get 'em.

Though it's already a lock that it'll finish below Demon Slayer (lol)
34AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:41
Obviously it can't beat Demon Slayer, lol.
Though it might beat Yuji Oda's movie or Kokuho.
35AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:41
TV itself is in decline to begin with, so isn't it mostly people who never even watched the drama anyway?
36AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:42
People who watch VIVANT are probably gonna get branded with a label —
unlike Chiikawa or Demon Slayer, this is the kind of content that gets you tagged as "that sketchy type."
Anyway, I'd guess around ¥12 billion.
62AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:52
VIVANT, ~20% ratings: "Literally every Japanese person is watching this! Who's the idiot not watching?"

Kohaku Uta Gassen (the New Year's Eve song contest), ~35% ratings: "Nobody watches that."

LOLOLOLOLOL
68AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:54
Re: #62
> VIVANT, ~20% ratings: "Literally every Japanese person is watching this! Who's the idiot not watching?"

My bad.
Also, I've never seen that Demon Slayer whatchamacallit either.
63AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:53
I don't think it'll beat Chiikawa either.
66AnonymousNov 15, 2026 19:54
Re: #63
Stuff that becomes an actual social phenomenon is just on a different level.
This one's only a TV thing.
91AnonymousNov 15, 2026 20:06
I doubt it'll be a total flop.
It should hit at least ¥3 billion.
Whether that's worth all the money spent on promotion, who knows.
103AnonymousNov 15, 2026 20:10
Re: #91
That would actually count as a flop.
At ¥3 billion box office, the production side only pockets about ¥1 billion, lol.
119AnonymousNov 15, 2026 20:19
Re: #91
Advance sales already passed ¥2 billion, so ¥3 billion is a breeze.
Whether it reaches ¥10 billion is a different story though.
106AnonymousNov 15, 2026 20:13
Looks like a massive opening is basically locked in. From here it's all down to how good the movie actually is. If the reviews are brutal, it could end up finishing at just a bit over ¥10 billion.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HXFgqWQakAAFTey.jpg

Background and Key Points of the Debate

The phrase “the ¥20 billion wall” comes from the fact that few Japanese live-action films have ever reached that scale. ‘Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL’ is said to hold one of the top box-office grosses of any Japanese live-action film and has long been cited as the benchmark. Theatrical anime like Demon Slayer, on the other hand, tend to have figures that blend in overseas revenue and take on a life of their own, and posters in the thread pointed out that “comparing numbers that include overseas gross doesn’t make sense.” Where opinions split was over how far TV ratings can be converted into theater attendance — some argued straight from a 20%-plus household rating to an audience estimate via simple math, while others pushed back with “you’re putting way too much faith in ratings.” Another factor swaying the predictions was disagreement over whether a spoiler-heavy, theory-driven drama like this would see revenue boosted by repeat viewings, or whether audiences would feel satisfied after one watch and the film wouldn’t get a long run. This article excludes a handful of posts that inappropriately brought up ethnic background.

*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Entertainment & Sports Express+) thread “[Movie] Box-Office Hopes of “Could It Be #1 in Japanese History?” — VIVANT’s Run at the ¥20 Billion Wall Set by Bayside Shakedown and Kokuho, and Anime’s “Pinnacle”.”

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