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The story
On November 5, 2026, Nintendo released its financial results for the April–September 2026 period (Q1–Q2), reporting that Nintendo Switch 2 hardware sales fell 37.4% year-on-year to 6.49 million units. The full-year target is 16.5 million units, meaning roughly 10 million units need to be sold in the remaining two quarters. On 5ch’s hardware/industry (geha) board, opinions split over how much impact September’s price hike is having, and how the year-end sales push and the upcoming Indonesia launch might affect the chances of hitting that target. Some argued last year’s Q1–Q2 was exceptionally strong, while others said the target itself is simply a tall order.
Hardware sales: Nintendo Switch 2 fell 37.4% year-on-year to 6.49 million units,
while Nintendo Switch fell 32.7% year-on-year to 1.27 million units. Although Nintendo Switch 2
unit sales declined year-on-year, driven by factors such as new title releases…
Source: nintendo.co.jp / Original article here
What people said
Nah, no way that's true.
They announced the price hike at the same time as the Q1 forecast, didn't they?
If they hadn't raised the price,
they'd probably have broken 20 million units worldwide by now,
with Japan alone topping 7 million.
Domestic sales are running at 20-30k units a week right now,
but without the price hike I think they could've kept selling at double that.
Wait, didn't they already hit 20 million units in the first year?
It's not that they don't understand it — they just don't want to…
Still, I thought it was pretty bold of them not to revise the target,
especially with Duskbloods (the FromSoftware title) getting delayed.
Wonder if it'll still ship within the fiscal year.
Last year Switch 2 did 7.01 million in Q3 and 2.49 million in Q4,
so if sales just match last year's numbers, they won't reach 16.5 million.
I've been watching this for years — it's going to be tough.
They'd need a really good run.
If they do 7.5 million in Q3 and 2.5 million in Q4, they'd hit the target.
Both are roughly in line with last year, not a high bar.
Overseas, the price hike doesn't seem to be hurting much, and the Zelda bundle is clearly selling well, so Q3 could beat last year.
We're down 37% right now — why would you think it'll sell like last year…?
Oh good, what a relief!
The overseas price hike only happened in September, so I think sales will drop from here.
There are more games now than at launch — the lineup is richer than last year.
Console custom chips and GPUs both declined
Meanwhile, data center revenue up 97%
'Both sides are the same' is just siding with whoever's losing.
Nintendo doesn't actually have any real brand power.
Meanwhile PS4 ended up selling for ¥20,000…
https://imgur.com/fx30apU.jpeg
Unless Q3-Q4 sell like crazy, this isn't happening.
Do you actually understand that chart?
You think it's gonna sell at ¥60,000? lol
It's already sold 26 million units precisely because EVERYONE is buying it, you know.
You'd normally need two year-end holiday seasons to hit that.
The target probably just factors in the market simply getting bigger.
That's a hugely important point, yet nobody's mentioning it — everyone's just panicking instead. That's geha for you.
I doubt Indonesia will sell enough to move the needle much.
In regions where the Nintendo brand doesn't carry weight, Nintendo isn't strong —
in those markets it's guns-and-sports games with universal appeal that win out (which is exactly why the Wii succeeded overseas).
Last year Nintendo actually lost to the PS5 during that same year-end season, which is why the stock price crashed starting in November.
They've barely released any major flagship titles yet.
Back in the Iwata era they were selling hardware at a loss, so that really was the end stage — but right now they're still profitable.
Memory prices are climbing even further, so another price hike could be forced on them.
This isn't really a situation where they can afford to sit back and save their big titles for later.
When Nintendo flops, it flops.
Are you even a real fan?
Even the 3DS, which gets treated like a total flop,
was moving 60k-80k units a week two years and ten months in —
three times the pace Switch 2 is running at now.
It's going to be tough to beat the 3DS, which ultimately sold close to 25 million units domestically.
Not happening at a list price of almost ¥60,000.
Depending on Q3, they might end up revising the forecast downward.
And yet sales are still down from last year.
Even with the 'before the price hike' boost, this is what we get.
If anything, last year — where they sold 10 million units in just Q1-Q2 — is the insane outlier…
It's like they were running some kind of 'double sales' bonus event.
Background and Key Points of Debate
These figures cover the April–September 2026 period (Q1–Q2) and show 6.49 million units sold against a full-year target of 16.5 million. That means roughly 10 million units need to be sold over the remaining two quarters — a number that works out if Q3 and Q4 match last year’s levels (7.01 million and 2.49 million respectively). The thread split over how to read the impact of September’s price hike: some blamed the domestic slowdown on it, while others pointed out that the price increase barely affected overseas sales and that conditions now simply aren’t comparable to the launch period. One easily overlooked point: even hitting 16.5 million units would still mean a 16.9% year-on-year decline for the full year, so reaching the target doesn’t automatically mean things are going well. The Indonesia launch and the year-end sales push were also raised as factors that could move the numbers.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry [geha]) thread “Switch 2 hardware down 37.4% year-on-year. Target is 16.5 million units (currently at 6.49 million).”
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