Maglev Construction Costs to Climb Past ¥11 Trillion Again — 5ch: “It’s a Dream, Japan’s Dream”

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The story

A Kyodo News report on November 4 revealed that JR Central is considering raising its cost estimate for the Chuo Shinkansen maglev line (Shinagawa–Nagoya section) further above the current ¥11 trillion. This would be the first increase since last October and the third since construction began. The estimate has already doubled since construction started in 2014, driven mainly by soaring materials and labor costs. JR Central had planned to announce an opening date within the year, but sources say that timeline may now slip into next year. On 5ch, commenters repeatedly questioned the project’s overall future, debating who would bear the added costs, the delayed start of the Shizuoka section, and whether the Osaka extension would ever actually happen.

11/4 (Wed) 23:29 — Kyodo News

It emerged on the 4th, from interviews with sources, that JR Central is considering increasing its cost estimate for the Chuo Shinkansen maglev line between Tokyo’s Shinagawa and Nagoya beyond the previous ¥11 trillion figure. An increase would mark the first since last October and the third since construction began, meaning the company finds itself forced into another hike roughly a year on from the last one. Soaring materials and labor costs amid inflation are taking their toll. JR Central is recalculating its estimate ahead of announcing an opening date, and plans to finalize and disclose the figure by the end of the year.

Even the current ¥11 trillion estimate is already double what it was when construction began in 2014, underscoring just how much harder the project has become to manage. After Shizuoka Governor Yasutomo Suzuki announced in July that he would allow construction to begin in the Shizuoka section, JR Central President Shunsuke Niwa had said the company would announce an opening date for the Shinagawa–Nagoya section by the end of this year. Sources say, however, that this announcement may now slip until next year.

Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here

What people said

3AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:31
Just tax Shizuoka residents to cover the increase.
151AnonymousNov 5, 2026 04:49
Re: #3
Shizuoka has nothing to do with it.
The maglev project itself is a reckless plan with no real chance of success, so the construction costs are going to keep ballooning no matter what.
4AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:32
If they're paying out of their own pocket, fine, whatever.
Just stop pouring tax money into it.
22AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:47
Re: #4
The megabank consortium refused to lend because they judged the project unviable.
So then-PM Abe said fine, the state will lend the money instead — and that's how it turned into a government loan.
64AnonymousNov 5, 2026 01:52
Re: #4
They were supposed to fund it themselves, but the government ended up using tax money anyway.
Nobody asked for this — the government just wanted to do it, so there's nothing to be done about it.
6AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:33
Admitting to the bid-rigging would've worked out cheaper, wouldn't it lol
166AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:10
Re: #6
Just collect the cost overrun from the bid-rigging fines, problem solved.
9AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:37
It's going to end at Nagoya, full stop.
That's exactly why they split it into two phases with Nagoya opening first — the Osaka extension was always just a face-saving pretext.
Everyone knew from the beginning the Osaka extension was never actually happening.
81AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:32
Re: #9
Isn't that kind of pointless though?
Even now, Tokyo–Nagoya takes about an hour if you blow past Shin-Yokohama [on the Nozomi bullet train].
Cutting that down to 30 minutes doesn't really mean much.
86AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:36
Re: #81
Even if travel time gets shorter, the total door-to-door time probably won't change much.
If the station's way out in the middle of nowhere and you have to trek down to some deep platform and clear a security check before boarding, what's even the point.
103AnonymousNov 5, 2026 03:03
Re: #81
Nagoya–Osaka is exactly the stretch that's too short a distance to be worth it.
And even if they run the maglev all the way to Shin-Osaka, people from Kyoto or Shiga would still end up boarding at Nagoya rather than Shin-Osaka — the cost-effectiveness is terrible.
For JR Central, the profit's the same whether it's the bullet train or the maglev, so stopping maglev service at Nagoya is plenty.
The Shinagawa–Nagoya leg runs through the central route, which has a big impact by opening up new areas — Tono, Iida, Yamanashi, Sagamihara, and so on.
Mie and Nara are already well served via Nagoya or Kyoto anyway.
The Osaka extension is wasteful through and through — they never actually intended to build it.
26AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:49
A project this massive shouldn't be left to a private company — make it a national project.
33AnonymousNov 5, 2026 01:00
Re: #26
The government isn't touching a pointless project like this.
31AnonymousNov 5, 2026 00:56
Maybe they should just stop having the bullet train stop in Shizuoka too, while they're at it.
34AnonymousNov 5, 2026 01:01
> Construction of the Shizuoka section is now expected to start no earlier than March next year, since contractor Taisei Corporation received a business-suspension order from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism over the maglev bid-rigging scandal.


The pro-maglev crowd should fall on their swords.
57AnonymousNov 5, 2026 01:37
Re: #34
Looks like the Ministry's steering toward cancellation too.
47AnonymousNov 5, 2026 01:19
If they could forcibly relocate residents and build it above ground like China does, construction would've been done ages ago.
61AnonymousNov 5, 2026 01:42
By the time this thing's finished, the country will have declined so much it won't even matter — they should seriously just cut their losses now.
144AnonymousNov 5, 2026 04:42
Re: #61
Yeah, the country's lost a ton of national strength since construction even started.
72AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:20
This started out as "we can do it alone for ¥2 trillion, so JR Central, and nobody else gets a say."
Then once the Abe administration came in, the government started chipping in to help.
The maglev is never actually going to get finished — the real question is who takes the blame, and [former JR Central chairman] Kasai's already dead.
76AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:24
Re: #72
Wait, Chairman Kasai already passed away? Didn't know that.
80AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:31
The bedrock's too hard to drill through, groundwater keeps leaking out and drying up the water supply, and both the labor force and the technical skill have deteriorated — it's just not happening anymore.
If [former Shizuoka governor] Kawakatsu hadn't dug in his heels, this might've started taking shape by now, but nobody can keep up the motivation anymore.
88AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:40
Re: #80
It's not Kawakatsu's fault — everywhere else is a total mess too.
If Shizuoka's supposedly the big obstacle, they could've just dug in from the Nagoya side and the Tokyo side and connected the last 2 km in Shizuoka at the end.
There's no partial-opening plan on the table anyway, so that would've been fine — and they can't even manage that much.
If a project can't handle that small a deviation from its own blueprint, the whole maglev concept is hopeless.
Re: #85
There are also rumors they'll be checking passengers' belongings.
For riders, it'll feel less like today's bullet train and more like boarding a plane.
95AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:52
The maglev isn't about practical benefit.
It's a dream — Japan's dream.
High-speed rail isn't about logic.
It's romance.
A dream where the engineers and the public become one.
98AnonymousNov 5, 2026 02:59
Re: #95
Not a dream, a nightmare lol. No doubt about it! lol
99AnonymousNov 5, 2026 03:00
Re: #95
Isn't the current Nozomi basically good enough?
Tokyo–Osaka would be faster still if they just skipped the Nagoya stop, but they won't even do that.
They talk about speed, but right now it's JR Central that doesn't actually want it any faster.
100AnonymousNov 5, 2026 03:00
"Can't even pour drinks steadily anymore" — restaurant shuts down over maglev construction vibrations; house lots sinking, cracks in homes… how JR Central responded to residents' complaints
November 2, 2026, Tokyo Shimbun
https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/525483
102AnonymousNov 5, 2026 03:02
Re: #100
Images

134AnonymousNov 5, 2026 03:47
Punching straight through the Southern Alps was just too reckless a route.
They should've gone via Nagano instead.
136AnonymousNov 5, 2026 03:50
Re: #134
Before they even get to the Southern Alps, they can't get the project moving past Shinagawa in the first place.
The route doesn't matter — a Nagano route would hit the exact same wall if it still can't get out of Shinagawa.
152AnonymousNov 5, 2026 04:53
Re: #136
Even before that, apparently land acquisition around the long-coveted Nagoya station area is a mess with the landowners and isn't progressing at all.
Supposedly it's at the point where they should just give up on stopping at Nagoya.
165AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:10
Re: #152
Don't even need Nagoya, honestly.
169AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:13
Re: #152
The reality is that even the deep-underground tunnel section in Tokyo — which doesn't require any land acquisition at all — hasn't made any progress either.
The media's been played by JR, pushing the narrative that Shizuoka is somehow the problem when that's basically disinformation.
170AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:13
Couldn't they at least do a partial opening from Shinagawa to Kofu first? There's probably decent demand from people who just want to ride the maglev once before they die.
175AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:18
Re: #170
The Yamanashi test track already offers rides, so just go ride that.
176AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:19
Re: #170
The Yamanashi test track already offers rides, so just go ride that.
173AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:17
The Tokaido Shinkansen is aging and needs maintenance work, so it can't keep being run as hard as before.
And given the need for quadruple-tracking anyway, the reasoning became "might as well just go with the maglev."
177AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:19
Wasn't there a maglev test track in Miyazaki too, way back?
178AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:21
Re: #173
They gave up on that one too, in favor of the Hokuriku Shinkansen's Osaka extension.
Re: #177
There was — they moved the test line to Yamanashi. It's lined with solar panels now.
181AnonymousNov 5, 2026 05:27
Re: #173
"The Shinkansen is aging" is also just one of the lies JR Central told.
In fact, the aging countermeasures for the Tokaido Shinkansen have already been completed.

Background and Key Points of This Topic

When construction on the Chuo Shinkansen maglev began in 2014, the cost estimate was reportedly about half of today’s ¥11 trillion figure, making this the third increase since groundbreaking. JR Central originally pledged to fund the entire project itself, but that changed in 2016 when it took on ¥3 trillion in low-interest loans through the government’s Fiscal Investment and Loan Program — this is likely what posters in the thread mean by the “government loan.” The Shizuoka section was held up for years over concerns about Oi River water resources, with Governor Yasutomo Suzuki only agreeing to allow construction this past July; some claims in the thread about progress on land acquisition in Nagoya and Tokyo and on the deep-underground tunnel work remain unverified and should be checked against official sources. The Shinagawa–Osaka line was always planned as a two-stage project with Nagoya opening first, and the timing of the Osaka extension remains undecided to this day.

*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (News Speed+) thread “[Exclusive] Maglev construction costs to rise again — JR Central, from ¥11 trillion.”

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