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The story
A thread went up on 5ch’s “Nandemo Jikkyo G” board reporting a sharp drop in semiconductor-related stocks. Shares that had been climbing on AI data-center demand — led by Kioxia, whose mainstay is NAND flash memory — fell across the board, and the thread filled with a mix of bulls who decided to buy the dip and cautious posters sensing the bubble’s end. Some pointed out that Kioxia’s technology is storage, a different beast from GPU computing power, and that it had simply gotten swept up and overheated by the AI rally — leaving posters divided on whether this drop is a temporary correction or a genuine turning point.
What people said
Margin traders are just bait for the vulture funds lol
Same here, but it's gone up like crazy lol
Hard to believe, but Kioxia was actually treated as a value stock for a while
I opportunistically bought Honda when it crashed from the EV-related special loss, and it's gone up like crazy lol
Unrealized gains over +30%, and the real dividend yield is over 5% — all I can do is laugh
When I asked, she said after carefully picking stocks she ended up buying SoftBank
Wonder how that's going for her
Well, if you hold long enough it might go up eventually
Looking at the midterm election results, that one's probably staying frozen for a while ("frozen" = slang for a stock stuck at a loss you just hold onto)
Aren't all of them fine except the short bets and solar?
Do people like this actually exist? lol
Did anyone buy Kioxia after seeing the news that Kiritani-san bought it? (a famous individual investor known for chasing shareholder perks)
Looking at the Yahoo comments, there are a few scattered ones like 'but Kiritani bought it…'
Buy now or you'll miss out! Hurry!
Not for me
Even though people lump it all together as 'semiconductors,' Kioxia's mainstay is NAND flash, which is a different thing from NVIDIA's GPUs
NAND is basically mass storage, not a computing chip like a GPU
Looked at as mass storage, its rivals are Samsung, Micron, SanDisk, etc. — there's already strong competition there
Then why has it been going up until now? 🤔
It's the massive investment AI companies are pouring into data centers
And the people funding that investment have recently started thinking, 'ok, we get the future potential, but when does this actually turn a profit?'
It's true that data center demand is giving NAND itself a tailwind
Going a step further, Kioxia wants to let GPUs access NAND directly
Right now, GPUs pull data out of NAND storage and do all their work on a 'desk' called HBM (high-bandwidth memory)
Because of that, HBM is effectively the bottleneck on AI computing power
If GPUs could manipulate NAND data directly, effective computing power would jump dramatically
This tech is still in the research stage, but that narrative fused with AI demand and got the stock price overheated
Participants are surging, not shrinking
Kioxia's actually developing a lot of new tech
It'd be a company on a meteoric rise if the vulture funds weren't hunting it
To begin with, wouldn't you have made more money just buying SSDs instead of the stock?
There's no way it stays at this level going forward
Even before that — the broke guys here and the old men from Kenmo (5ch's left-leaning news board) are celebrating the drop like crazy, so it's a buy
The plants are running flat out
It comes down to whether a certain amount of political cutting actually goes through, so the end result won't change much
But losing Texas will clearly have an impact
Re: #51
Production capacity is maxed out, plus there's a backlog waiting for future capacity to come online
The current situation is that data center demand keeps climbing and there's no margin to make money except through price hikes
If things cool off, profits simply drop
Everyone convinces themselves they'll be the one who wins
But reality is cruel, isn't it
The whole 'DC regulation' debate is really just dressing up power-grid connection limits and local infrastructure caps as political regulation — it's closer to reflecting reality than being a political choice
New applications for grid connection are already routinely waiting 5+ years
So there's a strong whiff of 'does stopping a multi-year plan for a political photo-op even change anything?' to it
Not happening
Data centers will just move to wherever regulations are looser
Its technology is second-rate
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
Kioxia’s mainstay is NAND flash memory, which makes it a storage company rather than a direct competitor to the GPUs and HBM (high-bandwidth memory) at the center of the AI boom. With that distinction in mind, the thread’s analysis held that the stock’s rise had been driven by growing NAND demand from data-center investment, plus expectations around future technology (still in the research stage) that would let GPUs access NAND directly. On the other hand, some pointed out that the expansion of U.S. data centers faces a physical constraint — waits of over 5 years to connect to the power grid — which reflects reality more closely than talk of political regulation does. It’s also worth noting, when considering this overheated market, that Kiritani-san is a well-known individual investor famous for chasing shareholder perks, and that a certain number of beginners tend to follow whatever stock he buys.
※This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Nandemo Jikkyo G) thread “Semiconductor stocks going down wwwwww.”
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