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The story
On September 30, 2026, multiple groups — Morning Musume.’26, Hinatazaka46, Chou Tokimeki Sendenbu, CANDY TUNE, and OWV — are releasing new singles on the same day. The Hello!Project board has been buzzing with predictions for the Oricon daily rankings: Morning Musume. has stayed within the weekly top 3 ever since introducing individual handshake events, but this time some fans are predicting a 4th-place finish. The debate has gone beyond simple ranking rivalry, spilling into arguments over the “padded” structure of CD sales and how much a business model built around bonus events and fan meet-and-greets can really be trusted as an indicator of actual popularity. For Tokimeki Sendenbu, who are heading toward disbandment, the focus is on whether a “farewell boost” will kick in.
What people said
That range is basically fixed. When the group's stable and the song's good and they run more events, the ceiling can go up to nearly 140,000.
Unlike other groups, almost nobody here stacks multiple copies, so it stays low and stable — for better or worse.
09/30: Hinatazaka46 (5 versions), CANDY TUNE (3 versions), Chou Tokimeki Sendenbu (3 versions + 5 solo jacket versions), Morning Musume.'26 (5 versions), OWV (3 versions + FC edition), Mugendai MyuType (2 versions / + live-ticket lottery entry / BanG Dream! tie-in), millsage (+ live-ticket lottery entry / BanG Dream! tie-in), Ikka Dumb Rock! (+ live-ticket lottery entry / BanG Dream! tie-in),
Appare!, 04 Limited Sazabys, Ueda Reina (2 versions / anime tie-in), Kumada Akane & Masui Yuka (2 versions / Precure tie-in), XngHan&Xoul (formerly of RIIZE, 2 versions), go!go!vanillas (3 versions / anime tie-in)
What rank actually counts as "legit" then, lol
Every Morning Musume. single since they started individual handshake events has made the weekly top 3, so top 3 is the bar. This one's predicted at 4th, though.
Could this actually land at 5th place weekly?
They've always kept numbers that beat everyone except the true heavyweight acts — but when this many heavyweights collide on the same release day…
5th place would be a fittingly bleak symbol of the second dark age.
Even at baseline they're stronger than the current Morning Musume., and on top of that there's the disbandment boost.
That's a battle on a completely different level, way up in the clouds.
CANDY TUNE's sales are minor league — they're no threat to Hinatazaka.
I figured there was no point keeping the "Love Machine Preservation Society" (devoted fans of their classic hit) going anymore, but honestly, still moving 100k+ copies is kind of impressive.
No special push, just business as usual, and they've still got a hardcore fanbase that strong.
5th place is not okay.
"Pyoko Pyoko Ultra" debuted at No. 9 on Oricon.
No, that's not what I meant — I'm asking, if you exclude the multi-version releases, where would a normal single-version release actually rank.
There's basically nobody left in Japan buying CDs for the music itself anymore — people who actually want to listen just stream it.
(no idea if it's accurate)
2020 — 68th single: 2nd
2020 — 69th single: 2nd
2021 — 70th single: 2nd
2022 — 71st single: 2nd
2022 — 72nd single: 1st
2023 — 73rd single: 2nd
2024 — 74th single: 1st
2025 — 75th single: 2nd
2025 — 76th single: 1st
2026 — 77th single: ???
For Tokisen fans, it's all about the music quality, so this kawaii-style song doesn't really matter to them.
All they're hyped about is the next single: Asano Naoshi's emo-rock track and Tsukada Kohei's tear-jerker melody. That's really the whole story.
MUTEKI DEAD TOKIMEKI✨🏇🌈@muteki_dead1
https://x.com/muteki_dead1/status/2103791199144558955
■ Yappari Kimi ni Kimeta♡ ("I Knew It, I Choose You♡")
→ The go-to songwriter for M!LK, SHACHI, Chou Tokkyu, and other Stardust acts — surprisingly, this is his first-ever track for Tokisen: Asano Naoshi
■ Isshou Seishun, Isshou Munekyun ("Forever Young, Forever Heart-Throbbing")
→ The legendary hit machine behind =LOVE, ≠ME, and ≒JOY (the Kawaii Lab idol trio) — also his first track for Tokisen, of course: Tsukada Kohei
☆ Two absolutely godly composers — this is a god-tier lineup.
Since they're disbanding, Tokisen fans don't need to worry about the numbers anymore.
They don't need a kawaii song at all — as long as they get one emo, cool track made just for the hardcore fans, that's all that matters.
The talk-event tickets aren't selling well, so it looks rough.
16 Anonymous 2026/09/15 (Tue) 14:14:57.24 0
76th single, round-6 talk event: 210 slots sold out
77th single, round-6 talk event: 170 slots sold out
76th single round-6 sellout rate: 61% ≈ 210/340 slots
77th single round-6 sellout rate: 40% ≈ 170/416 slots
Nobody owns a CD player anymore, nobody listens to CDs; the CD is just a bonus tacked onto the event, so the sales figure is really just a count of how many times they ran that event.
In other words, it's a meaningless little bubble that nobody outside the fandom even knows exists. Get some perspective, idiots.
Arguing over who's "above" or "below" in a world that's purely about how many handshake events you ran and how many copies each individual otaku stacked — it's ugly.
Actually recouping money matters more than just going viral on social media, though.
Even McDonald's competes on burgers sold, not on how many views its posts get.
Honestly, my only image of McDonald's is a company that loves pandering to internet memes.
Going viral on social media matters way more, honestly.
Big jobs start rolling in on their own, the money multiplies, and both awareness and popularity climb.
Meanwhile, to sell CDs that only insider fans ever buy, the agency pours in huge amounts of venue-rental money, time, and labor — and bragging about hitting No. 1 on Oricon or Billboard doesn't raise name recognition anymore and doesn't even turn a profit.
In that case it's ticket sales and merch that matter more than CDs — CDs don't turn a profit.
That's basically the enka world.
Though Up-Front was kind of already that type of company to begin with.
Which is exactly why just putting out digital singles is enough — and honestly, that's basically what's happening already.
CDs don't make money anymore; they just run at a loss.
The agencies still treating CDs as priority number one are incompetent operations clinging to past glory with old-fashioned thinking — that's the real danger.
Apparently this is the first time since their major debut that Morning Musume. has put out only one CD release in a year.
Citing BTS's return to activity and growth from younger IPs, SK Securities projects HYBE will post record results this year — revenue of 5.1 trillion won (roughly 590 billion yen) and operating profit of 301.8 billion won (roughly 35 billion yen). That said, reflecting the drop in valuations across the entertainment sector, it cut its target share price from 350,000 won to 290,000 won (roughly 34,000 yen), while maintaining a "buy" rating.
That profit's way too thin, lol
Even Kawaii Lab, the group with the most momentum right now, still puts out physical CDs after all.
Kawaii Lab isn't "the group with the most momentum right now" anymore, though.
The tradeoff is that the live show's cost-performance takes a hit.
If it's purely about sales volume, the K-pop lottery-ticket model wins. Japan does it too, but only among the major acts.
Background and Key Points of Discussion
A recurring theme in these same-day-release comparison threads is the gap between actual CD sales and Oricon rankings. Because of “stacking” — where a single hardcore fan buys multiple copies and formats just to get handshake tickets or bonus-event passes — Oricon rankings tend to reflect the purchasing power of a core fanbase chasing events rather than a group’s overall popularity across the wider market. Within the thread, comments like “there’s basically no one left in Japan buying CDs for the music” and “a digital single is enough” came up, reflecting how the CD format itself has shifted from being a music product to essentially a vessel for handshake tickets. Opinions were also split over the underlying business model — some argued “going viral on social media leads to more work,” while others countered that “live shows and merch are actually more profitable” — so which metric (CD sales, social media buzz, event attendance, or live/merch revenue) should define success was very much up for debate. One thing readers should be careful not to misread: the ranking predictions aren’t a direct, absolute measure of a group’s popularity — they’re heavily shaped by how many bonus events each group runs and the purchasing habits of their respective fanbases.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hello!Project board) thread “Morning Musume. vs Hinatazaka vs Tokisen vs Kyanchu: Same-Day Single Release Showdown, September 30 Approaches.”
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