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The thread kicked off with a simple question aimed at people who say “investing scares me because I might lose money”: why not just buy individual government bonds, which come with a principal guarantee? Posters pointed out that these bonds pay higher interest than an ordinary savings account and won’t lose principal unless Japan’s finances collapse entirely — though others pushed back, arguing the interest gap isn’t that big and the paperwork hassle isn’t worth the modest payoff. As the discussion rolled on, it branched into monthly investing in All-Country index funds (オルカン) and the S&P 500, bank time-deposit campaigns, and how much to keep as an emergency fund, with the conversation trending toward a consensus: mix bonds, savings, and stocks according to your own risk tolerance.
What people said
Plus the interest is like 5-6x what most ordinary savings accounts pay.
Other than being locked in for a year, it's genuinely great — why isn't everyone buying these?
If you put in a decent amount, the difference really adds up.
But most people in the world aren't self-employed.
I guess the logic is: people willing to deal with the hassle go for stocks since they pay off more, and people who hate hassle won't bother with bonds either if the payoff's only slight.
Hmm.
Forget the hassle-haters, but even for the stock-picking crowd, I'd still recommend buying at least a little.
I'm in All-Country index funds (オルカン) myself, and sure, that'll outperform, but I hold a solid chunk of bonds too just to keep my mental steady during a crash.
Panic-selling wipes out everything you gained.
My retired mom brought home a flyer saying NISA's too confusing for her at this point so she wants a time deposit instead — 3 million yen for 3 years at about 1.9%. No risk of losing principal and a guaranteed +300k, that's actually pretty solid.
She might end up out-earning me, and I only just started NISA this year.
Bank time deposits have gotten better lately too, though sometimes that rate includes a promotional campaign bonus.
It's decent, but for something like a 3-year horizon, individual bonds actually beat a time deposit.
Time deposits are better suited for 6-month or 1-year terms.
Really?
Feels like talk about investing and saving has been picking up lately.
Yeah, it included the campaign bonus.
Looks like the condition was opening a new account.
I did research the bank first before giving my okay.
A friend told me I should just borrow that 3 million and build a portfolio to grow it myself, but that felt too risky, so I had her put it in a time deposit instead.
You never know how much longer a parent's going to be around, after all.
I think that's the right call.
Even with a campaign bonus, if the conditions line up for you, it's a good deal.
Throwing in a few hundred thousand yen I made off semiconductor stocks.
Nice.
Shore up your defense too and build up that grip strength 💪 ("握力," forum slang for the willpower to hold a position through a downturn instead of panic-selling)
Uh…
Are they rich or just completely indifferent?
Shifting to defensive assets is a conversation for after you retire.
My risk tolerance is low, so I buy bonds too, for the grip strength (holding power).
Of course I'm buying All-Country funds as well.
only 0.5%. An All-Country index fund gets you 3%+.
Which bank has a 0.1% rate?
My local regional bank pays 0.4% on ordinary savings.
And right now you can get about 1.9% on a 3-year bond and 2.2% on a 5-year one.
Chinese stocks don't come with a principal guarantee though…
and I don't mean the deposit-insurance payout cap (ペイオフ) kind of risk.
What kind of risk is that?
Seriously, fill me in.
Because inflation is expected to keep rising over the long run.
the All-Country/S&P zealots scare me too.
Life is long and there will be times you need cash,
yet they're assuming you can keep contributing for 10+ years straight.
Not many people have the mental fortitude to keep buying in while watching their losses grow during a downturn.
This is seriously true.
If you don't have the mental bandwidth for it, I think you should raise your bond allocation and keep more in savings.
Normally you wouldn't put your emergency fund, or your kids' tuition savings if you have kids, into investments anyway.
You buy All-Country funds assuming your money's locked up long-term.
Ordinary savings accounts are the real danger.
Go with All-Country funds or bonds — or at minimum a time deposit with a decent rate.
There's also the risk of the U.S. forcing a stronger yen on us, so it's not so simple anymore.
Buy low, sell high is the basic rule — so if not now, while the yen's cheap, when?
3% a month with zero risk.
If we're going there, a side hustle pays even better with a higher return rate.
But we're talking about ordinary asset management here.
You should factor this in too —
2% from a variable-rate individual bond,
plus 2% from a Mizuho Rakuten card, and just living normally nets you 4%.
Maybe, but there's also a non-zero chance it drops, so I'll just buy in now while I can.
That's exactly why you go with the 10-year variable-rate type.
Background and Key Points of This Debate
Individual government bonds (such as the 10-year variable-rate type) are issued by the state, so the principal is protected, and recent market rates run around 1.9% for the 3-year bond and 2.2% for the 5-year — well above what most banks pay on ordinary savings (roughly 0.1-0.4%). That said, they generally can’t be cashed in for the first year, and the payoff is small unless you’re investing a substantial sum. NISA and All-Country index funds (オルカン, tracking a broad global stock index), on the other hand, offer no principal guarantee but open the door to long-term capital gains and a tax-free allowance — which takes the mental discipline to keep contributing even while your position is underwater. The thread’s central disagreement was which of these to build around: bonds that are guaranteed but grow slowly, or stocks that can grow more but can also fall. Most participants were converging on the idea that combining both, weighted by age and whether you already have an emergency fund, is the sensible approach. The conversation also touched on how to value dollar-denominated assets amid the weak yen — a reminder that this isn’t a topic with one simple right answer.
*This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Nandemo Jikkyo G board) thread “Mystery faction: ‘Investing is dangerous! I won’t do NISA because I might lose money!’ — So why not just buy government bonds?.”
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