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The story
A thread predicting the lineup for the 77th NHK Kohaku Uta Gassen (the network’s annual New Year’s Eve song battle) lit up the Hello! Project subforum. The sticking point: will Juice=Juice perform solo, or will the whole Hello! Project roster go on together? The latter option drew a string of objections like “it’ll wreck the pecking order” and “that’s just a hassle for everyone.” Posters also traded comparisons of attendance figures, streaming numbers, and Google Trends data against other groups like =LOVE, Nogizaka46, FRUITS ZIPPER, CUTIE STREET, and ILLIT, with predictions all over the map as to who actually lands a slot.
What people said
If Juice goes solo it wrecks Hello! Project's pecking order, and it feels like Kawabe (the H!P producer) is just trying to claim the credit for himself — I don't think that ends well down the line.
Doesn't matter how many decades go by, there's no way the whole Hello! Project lineup gets on stage together lol
"Pecking order" lmaooooo — blame the groups that have existed longer than the ones below them but never sold worth a damn and just kept limping along as idols.
The whole Hello! Project going on together would be way too much of a hassle.
=LOVE
FRUITS ZIPPER
CUTIE STREET
ILLIT
There was never a slot for Juice to begin with lolol
Nogizaka might actually get cut this year lol
People are sick of "kawaii"-type groups anyway, and average viewers can't tell them apart, so one is plenty.
Juice=Juice doesn't overlap with any of them, so they're the one that's needed.
What's even different about them lol
Three days at Tokyo Dome = Nogizaka
Two days at the National Stadium = =LOVE
The musical-theater-ish one is =LOVE
The choir-song-ish one is Nogizaka
=LOVE
FRUITS ZIPPER
CUTIE STREET
ILLIT
I bet Tokisen (Tokimeki Sendenbu) gets added to this list too
They'll probably force them in on M!LK's pull since M!LK is disbanding
Tokisen getting in would be a "Momoiro Kohaku" pick lol (slang for getting a slot through the same kind of connections Momoiro Clover Z has used)
There just aren't enough Korean-act slots
They'll probably grab 2-3 spots
It also charted on this year's first-half overall karaoke chart.
For reference: 2.3 billion TikTok views, 200 million streams.
Even without a new song going viral, they still climbed as high as #5 on Apple Music.
They've also charted on Spotify's Top 50 and TikTok's music viral chart.
Juice just can't compete with that.
Then why didn't they make Kohaku last year?
Not a fan, so I wouldn't know.
But this year they apparently sold out Yokohama Stadium and the National Stadium, and CD sales topped 500k, so I'd say they're basically a lock to get in.
Their agency doesn't have much pull.
Their popularity has exploded over just the past year.
Hmm…
Google Trends isn't really a measure of popularity either.
What matters is how much buzz and exposure a group generates with the general public, that's it.
Juice=Juice
Nogizaka46
=LOVE
FRUITS ZIPPER
CUTIE STREET
ILLIT
Hmm…
Yeah, this looks hopeless. Might as well disband.
Then why didn't CUTIE STREET make it?
Last year =LOVE fans were apparently grumbling nonstop about "Kyanchu" getting a slot despite weaker numbers.
Something's clearly off with just Nogizaka's numbers here —
this is borderline fabrication-suspicious lol
That's just a glitch from viewers fumbling their remotes during one of those interactive remote-control game segments
https://note.com/oszerosakai/n/n50f5f8c7d349
Background and Talking Points
NHK’s Kohaku Uta Gassen is said to pick its performers based on a mix of CD sales, streaming numbers, and social media buzz, but the network has never published concrete selection criteria. As a result, it’s become an annual tradition for fans to predict who’s “in” or “out” using fragmentary data points like Google Trends search volume, attendance figures, and streaming numbers. In this thread, opinions were split over how Juice=Juice would appear (solo or as part of the full Hello! Project lineup), and there was also lively comparison with non-“Sakamichi” groups like =LOVE, Nogizaka46, and FRUITS ZIPPER. It’s worth noting, though, that these metric comparisons are purely fan speculation, not criteria NHK has officially confirmed using — a point readers can easily misread.
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hello! Project board) thread “[77th NHK Kohaku Uta Gassen Lineup Prediction Thread].”
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