In the foreign exchange market on the 8th, the yen briefly strengthened to the 152 level against the dollar, its strongest level in roughly half a year, since this past February. The move effectively broke through the “155 wall” — a line the yen hadn’t managed to push past even amid joint Japan-US currency intervention. On 5channel threads, opinions split over where the “right” level actually is, ranging from calls for a return to the 120s to views that around 140 reflects the yen’s true strength. Debate also continued over whether speculative trading was the main driver, and just how much the Japan-US interest rate gap is really influencing the move.
9/8 (Tue) 16:26 — Nippon TV News NNN
The yen briefly touched the 152 level against the dollar.
In the foreign exchange market on the 8th, the yen strengthened, briefly touching the 152 level against the dollar — its strongest level in roughly half a year, since this past February.
Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here
That's still weak yen at 152.
Nowhere near enough
Knock off another 20 yen
Saw somewhere that 100-110 is the right range for ordinary people's cost of living. But yeah, 120 for now.
Japan doesn't have that kind of strength left, so quit wishing so high
Our real level is 140-ish at best
If it got that strong, every major Japanese industry would tank into recession at once
Is now the time to buy more All-Country (orikan) or S&P 500 funds, or not?
Amateurs should probably just watch and wait, right?
Apparently Warren Buffett or whoever's been selling stocks and stacking up cash.
Meaning he's betting stocks are high right now and due to drop.
If it drops that much, you could pick up the Nikkei in the 40,000 range
not a single person said it'd hit 120 a few years later
So a few years from now it might be at 100
If that happens, interest rates would be like 20% lol
Mortgage holders are toast lol
https://ameblo.jp/razyob/entry-12978143349.html
Yoichi Takahashi said the same thing.
Isn't that a pretty lame take though?
Maybe when it gets to around 150?
You could just save in plain yen like a normal person
But there seem to be a lot of people who swallowed whole some random stranger's post about "losing to inflation" or "the yen becoming worthless" and got all worked up about it lol. RIP.
Didn't someone load up a ton of short/long positions ahead of time?
Not really insider trading — the Japanese and US finance ministers kindly announced it in advance lol
The initial move was probably intervention, but everything after that is speculators.
That's true, of course
The yen's value just keeps eroding
Which is exactly why the old folks who've already "made it out" support this
How much money does the Japanese government want to hand me lol
Guess it's telling me to buy another Lexus lolw
Only enough for a Lexus? That's pretty weak
If overinflated stock and real estate prices come back down, that's a good thing
They'd lost their proper footing to pure money games anyway
Don't just react when the yen's weak
It'll snap right back to 160 soon, don't worry about it
This is a structural interest-rate-gap issue, so the pressure isn't going to stop
I don't think the interest rate gap is really the main thing
Sure, it's one factor, and it's definitely part of why we're in a strong-yen phase right now
But it's a much simpler story than that — the yen as a currency just keeps losing value, so it gets cheaper
Long term, it's headed for 200, then 300
Well, it's a tug-of-war between speculators. Even if the ones who think it'll drop dump hard, the fools who think it'll keep going buy right back in.
Sitting on the sidelines is probably the right call for now.
A week ago it was 160 to the dollar
A little over a month ago it was 164
Now it's 152
You'd think people would've figured it out by now — exchange rates don't reflect the real economy at all
Nobody in the FX market is trading based on "what's the fair value of the dollar?"
It's just a dumb market where a mass of speculators react to economic headlines and trade purely on "which direction?" (a huge pile of speculators just running the same conditioned reflex year-round — sell on bearish-currency news, buy on bullish-currency news)
Ask yourself whether there was any news this past week about Japan's national strength or currency credibility suddenly jumping — and it becomes obvious that the massive swings and the overshoot on yen weakness we're seeing now have nothing to do with "national strength" or "credibility"
Any of you idiots who kept crying about "national strength" and "credibility" actually got a counterargument?
Sure, if we're only talking a few yen lol
They're not even doing the basic thing of tightening currency supply during inflation
Background and Key Points of the Debate
The “155 wall” refers to a psychological threshold that the yen, despite joint Japan-US market intervention, had been unable to meaningfully push back through toward strength. This time it briefly dipped below that line, with the yen strengthening to the 152 level. Opinion on the thread split mainly over the cause: some emphasized the narrowing Japan-US interest rate gap, while others argued it was nothing more than short-term speculative positioning. There was also a wide range of views on how far the yen would need to strengthen to be considered “fair value,” from calls for a return to the 120s to the view that around 140 reflects Japan’s true economic strength. Worth keeping in mind: a stronger yen benefits consumers by lowering import prices, but it can be a headwind for exporters’ earnings and stock prices — so it’s not simply true that “a stronger yen = an easier life.”
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5channel (Newsspeed+) thread “Yen briefly hits 152 to the dollar, breaking the “155 wall” that held even through Japan-US currency intervention — strongest in about half a year 9/8.”
