As semiconductor prices keep climbing, users on 5ch’s console hardware board have been debating how this will affect the timing and design of the Switch’s successor and next-gen consoles. Some pointed out that LPDDR5X memory prices jumped from about $30 to $70 per unit in just a year, and opinions are split on whether the Switch 2’s lifespan will end up longer or shorter than the Switch 1’s roughly nine years.
With PS5’s monthly active users reportedly reaching 125 million, and Roblox seeing a drop in paying users also factoring in, the thread became a broader read on where the console market is headed.
The following:
Here's what Nintendo is thinking:
· The Switch 2 won't last anywhere near 9 years like the original Switch did
· Any full new titles currently in development for the Switch 2 should, if possible, be shifted to launch alongside the next-gen console
· The next-gen console should launch as soon as possible — ideally within 3 years
· The Switch 2 should pull back to a core-gamer positioning, something like a 'Switch 1 Pro' that lets you play Switch games
at higher resolution on a gaming monitor
· The next-gen console should drop the 'Switch' branding entirely to create a sense of renewal
· The next-gen console must be priced so parents can buy one per kid (under ¥30,000 in Japan) as a baseline,
with specs built to fit that price
· To make up for the lower specs, differentiate the hardware with gimmicks (watch-style, phone-style, etc.)
· Since all users really want is Nintendo's own software, make it a Nintendo-first-party-only machine,
with third parties sold more like an OEM arrangement
· The Switch 2 won't last anywhere near 9 years like the original Switch did
· Any full new titles currently in development for the Switch 2 should, if possible, be shifted to launch alongside the next-gen console
· The next-gen console should launch as soon as possible — ideally within 3 years
· The Switch 2 should pull back to a core-gamer positioning, something like a 'Switch 1 Pro' that lets you play Switch games
at higher resolution on a gaming monitor
· The next-gen console should drop the 'Switch' branding entirely to create a sense of renewal
· The next-gen console must be priced so parents can buy one per kid (under ¥30,000 in Japan) as a baseline,
with specs built to fit that price
· To make up for the lower specs, differentiate the hardware with gimmicks (watch-style, phone-style, etc.)
· Since all users really want is Nintendo's own software, make it a Nintendo-first-party-only machine,
with third parties sold more like an OEM arrangement
Re: #4
If anything, the slowdown in hardware performance gains is only going to get worse from here, so the Switch 2's competitive window will end up longer than the Switch 1's.
If anything, the slowdown in hardware performance gains is only going to get worse from here, so the Switch 2's competitive window will end up longer than the Switch 1's.
Re: #4
Why assume the Switch 2 won't last 9 years like the Switch did? Spec-wise it's set higher relative to its era than the original Switch was, so at least in Nintendo's own thinking, it should be designed not to get left behind quickly.
Why assume the Switch 2 won't last 9 years like the Switch did? Spec-wise it's set higher relative to its era than the original Switch was, so at least in Nintendo's own thinking, it should be designed not to get left behind quickly.
Re: #4
They'll keep extending the Switch's life too, and sell it alongside the Switch 2 for a long stretch — and they'll make a cheap Famicom Mini-style unit for younger kids.
They'll keep extending the Switch's life too, and sell it alongside the Switch 2 for a long stretch — and they'll make a cheap Famicom Mini-style unit for younger kids.
There are forecasts saying the semiconductor price surge will last until 2028, or even 2030 — but timing-wise, a 'Switch 3' would come even after that, right?
Re: #5
Once prices go up, they don't really come back down.
Once prices go up, they don't really come back down.
This isn't AI (´・ω・`) <Even AI wouldn't say something this dumb. Someone's just writing in an AI-ish style.
Re: #17
I wasn't trying to sound like AI, though.
I wasn't trying to sound like AI, though.
People are trashing it as 'losing steam' or 'already peaked,' but honestly, starting from zero units and selling 20 million in a year — while the PC and smartphone market keeps ballooning — is still a big deal.
Re: #18
Fair point. The Wii U's total lifetime sales were about that same number.
Fair point. The Wii U's total lifetime sales were about that same number.
Nintendo's next-gen console is like 10 years out. Worry about the PS6 instead.
Re: #19
If they try to stretch the Switch 2 out for 10 years, that's game over for them.
If they try to stretch the Switch 2 out for 10 years, that's game over for them.
Well, if there's any real impact, it'll be on whether they can release a Switch 2 Lite. Without the dock you don't need, it should normally come in ¥10,000–15,000 cheaper — but with prices climbing, who knows.
Re: #26
The dock is basically just an expansion port, so it's not costly to make. What really drives the cost is the LCD panel and the SoC.
The dock is basically just an expansion port, so it's not costly to make. What really drives the cost is the LCD panel and the SoC.
Re: #32
The Joy-Cons must cost a fortune, huh 🥺
The Joy-Cons must cost a fortune, huh 🥺
Re: #32
I think the Switch 2 stays relevant only until the current wave of low-to-mid-spec PCs gets swept away — how long do you think that'll take? If anything, I'd guess the price surge is actually slowing down the general PC upgrade cycle.
I think the Switch 2 stays relevant only until the current wave of low-to-mid-spec PCs gets swept away — how long do you think that'll take? If anything, I'd guess the price surge is actually slowing down the general PC upgrade cycle.
There's basically no game that can't be made for the Switch 2 — so why say 10 years is impossible?
Re: #30
Because the price is too high and doesn't match Nintendo's actual customer base. It's ended up priced and specced more for core gamers. For giving to a kid, what matters is being safer and cheaper than a smartphone, having location tracking/parental monitoring, being easy to carry, and being affordable enough for one per child — that's essential.
Because the price is too high and doesn't match Nintendo's actual customer base. It's ended up priced and specced more for core gamers. For giving to a kid, what matters is being safer and cheaper than a smartphone, having location tracking/parental monitoring, being easy to carry, and being affordable enough for one per child — that's essential.
The younger generation has basically been swallowed up by Roblox.
Re: #60
That same Roblox just posted a huge drop — about a 20% decline in users.
https://www.4gamer.net/games/036/G003691/20260824001/
That same Roblox just posted a huge drop — about a 20% decline in users.
https://www.4gamer.net/games/036/G003691/20260824001/
The one who killed off the Switch was Nintendo itself, you know. And that's after selling 150 million units.
Re: #62
Because they threw away that entire 150-million-unit Switch install base, reset everything, and started over from zero.
Because they threw away that entire 150-million-unit Switch install base, reset everything, and started over from zero.
Re: #71
Well, of course you start from zero units when you release new hardware.
Well, of course you start from zero units when you release new hardware.
Re: #73
Given the Switch 2's specs, they'd have been better off releasing it as a 'Switch Pro' or a 'Switch 4K model.' The reason Q1 earnings looked decent was Tomodachi Collection selling 10 million copies on the Switch 1, plus Trump-tariff refunds — that's really it.
Given the Switch 2's specs, they'd have been better off releasing it as a 'Switch Pro' or a 'Switch 4K model.' The reason Q1 earnings looked decent was Tomodachi Collection selling 10 million copies on the Switch 1, plus Trump-tariff refunds — that's really it.
Re: #73
That's the risk though, isn't it — PCs can raise their specs while keeping backward compatibility.
That's the risk though, isn't it — PCs can raise their specs while keeping backward compatibility.
Re: #64
Even after a 20% drop, it's not even close — Switch's entire yearly active user count loses to Roblox's monthly numbers alone lol
Even after a 20% drop, it's not even close — Switch's entire yearly active user count loses to Roblox's monthly numbers alone lol
Re: #75
The article you linked is literally about Roblox 'crumbling from the foundations up.' Monthly paying users dropped from 37 million to 27 million — that's exactly why the stock crashed.
The article you linked is literally about Roblox 'crumbling from the foundations up.' Monthly paying users dropped from 37 million to 27 million — that's exactly why the stock crashed.
Isn't it Xbox and PlayStation that are getting hit hardest in terms of release cycles?
Re: #82
Since theirs is releasing later, they're probably locked into higher-priced component contracts than Nintendo…
Since theirs is releasing later, they're probably locked into higher-priced component contracts than Nintendo…
Re: #83
Sony has the PS Portal. If they sell that as a 'PS6P,' a ¥29,800 price point is possible — plus a handheld that uses PSSR3 to run PS6 games locally at a lowered internal resolution.
Sony has the PS Portal. If they sell that as a 'PS6P,' a ¥29,800 price point is possible — plus a handheld that uses PSSR3 to run PS6 games locally at a lowered internal resolution.
Re: #92
It's not even selling at that price right now, is it?
It's not even selling at that price right now, is it?
Re: #92
Why would that make it cheaper…
Why would that make it cheaper…
Totoki explained the current situation surrounding PlayStation in an interview with the Wall Street Journal.
'We're fortunate — we're in the later stage of the PS console's life cycle. That means we don't need to aggressively push console sales right now. Instead, we're focusing on ongoing revenue from our existing user base.'
The idea is that, with a large enough base of people already on PS5, there's less need than before to price the hardware low just to attract new buyers. As of June 30, PlayStation had 125 million monthly active users, and Sony is increasingly focused on revenue from existing players through services like PS Plus.
'We're fortunate — we're in the later stage of the PS console's life cycle. That means we don't need to aggressively push console sales right now. Instead, we're focusing on ongoing revenue from our existing user base.'
The idea is that, with a large enough base of people already on PS5, there's less need than before to price the hardware low just to attract new buyers. As of June 30, PlayStation had 125 million monthly active users, and Sony is increasingly focused on revenue from existing players through services like PS Plus.
Actually, the LPDDR5X 6GB×2 configuration Nintendo uses in the Switch 2 isn't that expensive a component to begin with. So I don't think the price hikes are driven by memory costs alone — plastics, rising labor costs, global inflation in general — and I don't see this as a one-off, temporary thing.
Re: #104
The bigger price hikes in Japan are down to the weak yen. Elsewhere they've kept it at round numbers like $499 or €499, which suggests they deliberately landed on clean price points.
The bigger price hikes in Japan are down to the weak yen. Elsewhere they've kept it at round numbers like $499 or €499, which suggests they deliberately landed on clean price points.
Re: #104
https://www.apple-hacks.com/entry/apple-samsung-lpddr5x-100-percent-hike-iphone-supply
This is about the 12GB LPDDR5X module — its price reportedly went from roughly $30 in early 2025 to around $70 now.
That's plenty high already.
https://www.apple-hacks.com/entry/apple-samsung-lpddr5x-100-percent-hike-iphone-supply
This is about the 12GB LPDDR5X module — its price reportedly went from roughly $30 in early 2025 to around $70 now.
That's plenty high already.
If they keep delaying the PS6, they've got to keep making PS5s in the meantime — that's the scariest part, isn't it?
Re: #117
How many more units do they need to sell to satisfy you? It's already around 97 million units —
that's already more than 4x the Switch 2's install base lol
How many more units do they need to sell to satisfy you? It's already around 97 million units —
that's already more than 4x the Switch 2's install base lol
Re: #120
It's already been 7 years, so the early units are going to keep breaking down one after another.
It's already been 7 years, so the early units are going to keep breaking down one after another.
Re: #120
The actual active user count worldwide is like a tenth of that number, and you're bragging about it — that's genuinely hilarious.
The actual active user count worldwide is like a tenth of that number, and you're bragging about it — that's genuinely hilarious.
If anything, the Switch 2 will probably last a long time. Software development itself is hitting a ceiling and dev cycles just keep stretching out. Back in the early Switch 1 days there weren't many titles multi-platform with the PS4, but now the PS5 is already being caught up to by the Switch 2.
You could predict its adoption curve will be gentler than the Switch 1's, but it's hard to imagine it ending up short-lived.
You could predict its adoption curve will be gentler than the Switch 1's, but it's hard to imagine it ending up short-lived.
Re: #134
It's dead in Europe, though.
It's dead in Europe, though.
Re: #134
Nintendo has no intention of competing with Sony and third parties over core gamers — it's a company where first-party software makes up 83% of sales. What Nintendo wants to protect is the family segment, and nearly all its first-party titles are aimed squarely at that. The point is that by pricing the Switch 2 high, they've left an opening there that's getting eaten into by smartphones, Roblox, and NEX.
Nintendo has no intention of competing with Sony and third parties over core gamers — it's a company where first-party software makes up 83% of sales. What Nintendo wants to protect is the family segment, and nearly all its first-party titles are aimed squarely at that. The point is that by pricing the Switch 2 high, they've left an opening there that's getting eaten into by smartphones, Roblox, and NEX.
※This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry (Geha)) thread ‘Rising semiconductor prices will affect the release cycle and design of Nintendo’s next-gen console’.
