On September 14, 2026, the US long-term interest rate (10-year Treasury yield) briefly broke above 5%. It’s the first time in the 5% range since 2023, when the S&P 500 also saw declines. Since long-term rates serve as a benchmark for a wide range of borrowing costs — from mortgages to corporate bonds — continued increases are expected to ripple into the stock market and individual asset management. On 5ch, reactions ranged widely: concern over the impact on NISA (Japan’s tax-free investment account) investors, arguments that protecting your assets means fleeing to gold or yen-denominated holdings, and even voices seeing investment appeal in the high yields on US Treasuries.
The US long-term interest rate (10-year Treasury yield) briefly topped 5% on the 14th. Long-term rates serve as the “ruler” that measures the price of virtually every financial asset, and they also set the benchmark for a wide range of funding costs. If the rise continues, the impact will be unavoidable not just for financial markets but for the real US economy and government finances as well.
Rates also topped 5% back in ’23, when the S&P 500 fell
“Not only is this a headwind for risk assets, it also puts clear pressure on borrowing by consumers and businesses. It has reached a level where real ‘pain’ is starting to show (continues in the paid version — 1,442 characters remaining)
Source: nikkei.com / Original article here
Just like Toshihiro Isojima advised, looks like the BOJ's policy rate might seriously be headed for 4.7%.
Lower it already.
Re: #4
Mr. Toshihiro Isojima: "It's such a pain, so just make the Samurai bond (yen-denominated bonds issued by foreign borrowers in Japan) repayment interest 5%. I'm counting on ya." (said in Nagoya dialect)
The only way to bring long-term rates down is to actually get the economy on healthy footing.
Both Trump and Takaichi are running expansionary fiscal policy, so with both governments running huge deficits, long-term rates in both the US and Japan are bound to keep climbing.
This 5% is totally Trump shooting himself in the foot.
Guess we've entered the era where "life truly shines" (a nod to the Osaka Expo's slogan, used sarcastically here).
They're cutting taxes like crazy.
Isn't it the Middle East? They're running out of options over there.
They should be launching a large-scale ground offensive, but they're out of missiles.
And with the midterms coming up, Trump looks like he's going to lose anyway.
The Democrats are saying they'll pull out of the Middle East.
At this rate it's going to end in a total victory for the terrorists over there.
Even allied Saudi Arabia has repeatedly begged the US for help,
but because Trump keeps saying no with the midterms in mind,
the Houthis went and blew up an oil pipeline,
and then wiped out the government forces and seized a city connecting to the Red Sea.
They should be launching a massive strike right now, but nothing's being done.
What are the NISA folks gonna do about this?
They'll get stuck in a hole from margin calls.
Going bankrupt from a failed investment isn't exactly easy, you know.
✕ Failure
○ The price of playing the game
Nobody can predict the market.
No clue if it's going up or down.
"I'm too poor to even do NISA"
— that's as far as I read. (a stock 5ch phrase mocking someone by claiming you stopped reading right after their self-deprecating line)
That's exactly why it's headed for default.
It's getting to the point where nobody's going to want to buy this garbage bond.
The US is sitting on 6 quadrillion yen in debt right now — with 400 million people, that's 15 million yen per person.
Just the interest payments alone come to 3 million yen for a family of four.
America is basically finished.
And yet the Republicans are talking about handing out $5,000 to every citizen,
while the Democrats are saying they'll get everyone on health insurance AND give tax-free cuts all the way up through the middle class,
and pull the military out of the Middle East and settle things through talks instead.
Somebody help. What are we supposed to do about this? The world's falling apart.
Put another way, that just means there's that much more wealth out there too — every time the government prints more money, the assets held by citizens grow along with it.
If you only look at one side of it, you'll misread where things are headed.
But does that wealth actually have real value?
Can its owners actually manage and maintain it?
That's exactly what's being called into question, which is why market rates are rising.
Bottom line, it means lenders are reaching the point where they can't lend anymore.
Nah, I think it's over for America — the AI bubble's about to burst.
Put some gold in your portfolio (PF).
Buy yen or yuan.
They seem like the lesser evil.
Background and Key Points of This Topic
This is the first time US long-term rates have topped 5% since October 2023, when wariness over high valuations similarly pushed the S&P 500 into a correction. Behind the rate rise lies a combination of concerns over increased Treasury issuance tied to the expanding government deficit (so-called fiscal discipline worries) and persistent inflationary pressure. The thread branched into discussion of the BOJ’s rate-hike debate and the divergence between US and Japanese monetary policy, but the main channel through which rising US rates actually reach Japanese households is via the exchange rate and import prices driven by the US-Japan rate differential — not a direct link. The split between commenters who see the high yield on US Treasuries as “investment appeal” and those who read it as a signal of worsening fiscal health reflects just how complicated that relationship is.
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (News Speed+) thread “[US Long-Term Rates] Briefly Top 5% — New Wall for US Stocks to Reach New Highs.”
