The “rice surplus” from the 2025 harvest is becoming a serious problem. At a JA (agricultural co-op) collection and shipping facility in Tochigi Prefecture, stockpiles have piled up to 8,189 tons — equivalent to 1.63 million 5-kg bags — the highest level on record for this time of year. The average supermarket price has fallen to the ¥2,000 range for 5 kg, good news for consumers but a headache for producers scrambling to find storage space. On 5ch, users debated why the rice surplus happened, the timeline of the “Reiwa Rice Panic,” the timing of stockpile releases, and how distributors and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries handled it all.
The rice surplus from the 2025 harvest is becoming serious. As new-crop rice distribution ramps up, the 2025 crop — which dealers bought in at high prices — feels overpriced, and consumers are steering clear of it. Private-sector rice stockpiles have piled up to record levels, and the average supermarket price has fallen to the ¥2,000 range per 5 kg. Good news for consumers, but producers are on edge.
At the “Tochigi Rice Wide-Area Collection and Shipping Center” (Yaita City, Tochigi Prefecture), run by JA Zen-Noh Tochigi, 2025-crop rice is piled high. That’s because the “Reiwa Rice Panic” drove rice prices up and demand down, and on top of that, the cheaper 2026-crop rice has already started moving through distribution.
The center stores rice as low-temperature brown rice. As of the end of August, stockpiles of the 2025 crop stood at 8,189 tons (equivalent to 1.63 million 5-kg bags), the highest level on record for this time of year. Storage capacity is stretched thin, and the JA is scrambling to secure space for the new crop. A representative said, “We’re managing by having regional JA branches and trucking companies store some of it in their warehouses.”
Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here
But it's old, so it's ¥1,200 for 5kg.
Were they secretly hoarding rice during the Reiwa Rice Panic?
Exactly. If the Agriculture Ministry wants to talk about protecting farmers' livelihoods, they should figure out why this mess happened this time and rebuild the whole rice distribution system.
Rice wholesalers clogged up the supply chain to fake a shortage and jack up prices. The harvest was actually bigger than usual, so now all that extra stock is just sitting there unsold.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/cb374d53b017c168f044606aa60f2b496de00b2d
That's where we need to start.
It's because after saying 'we're growing plenty of new rice, just wait,' they released bridge stockpile rice without limit in the meantime, then reneged on buying it back. If you can follow a timeline and do basic math, you'd get it.
That's already gotten cheap.
Sounds like rice is about to get illegally dumped everywhere 😂
Wasn't there a shortage that sent prices soaring?
There was a poor harvest in some areas, true — but there wasn't actually a shortage.
https://imgur.com/UU71WRx.jpeg
It's because Shinjiro (Koizumi, the agriculture minister) released a huge amount of stockpiled rice.
Rice disappearing from supermarket shelves happened in summer–fall 2024. Summer–fall 2025 was when everyone was going crazy over Koizumi's stockpile rice — that's when regular rice, too expensive to sell, was piling up unsold. There was no shortage at all. Way too many people have their timeline all mixed up.
I see new-crop branded rice at stores for ¥1,980 (tax excluded) for 5kg all the time. Though I have zero interest in actually buying it at that price.
Like I posted above, a lot of the 2025 crop was immature grain. The Tokai region harvested a large volume, but quality was low.
https://newsdig.ismcdn.jp/mwimgs/3/c/680mw/img_3c00c30bdabd59ad7cb528aae39cbb5d139915.jpg
'White immature grains' — heat damage that turns rice kernels cloudy white — Tokai region has the highest rate in the country, over 4x that of Tohoku. What's next for rice prices?
https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/2298660
Wednesday, November 19, 2025, 18:42
Harvest volume, which rose in 2018, has since declined, but this year it's forecast to turn upward for the first time in seven years, reaching roughly 351,700 tons — about 24,000 tons more than last year.
Heat damage: Tokai region has the nation's highest rate of 'white immature grains'
Heat damage to rice caused by intense summer heat turns kernels cloudy white. As of October 25, the rate of these 'white immature grains' in the Tokai region reached 7.5% of all rice — the highest rate in the country.
So that's why they're desperately playing up a 'poor harvest' this year.
Exactly. This is the price of putting self-interest ahead of the public — the taxpayers and customers. Pay for it yourselves.
A lot of people who fled to whole-wheat bread — easy to cook and nutritious — probably won't come back to rice. I'm sick of this dumb country and its dumb industry.
Then just sell it as unbranded Grade-2 rice, no?
Who cares. Just raise the price, lol
The whole 'nothing fills you up like rice' thing makes no sense.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
The “Reiwa Rice Panic” traces back to a 2024 shortage and price spike, which prompted the government to release stockpiled rice. Opinions in the thread split over whether the oversupply is due to distributors like rice wholesalers, or to the Agriculture Ministry mistiming its stockpile releases. Also worth noting: the idea that “a poor harvest caused a shortage” isn’t necessarily accurate — in reality, shifts in planted acreage affected yield more, and some point out that by volume, the 2025 crop was actually one of the largest harvests in recent years. At the same time, heat damage caused “white immature grains” in some regions, creating quality variation — so low prices and quality can’t simply be equated.
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (News Speed+) thread “2025 Crop ‘Rice Surplus’ Turns Serious, Private Stockpiles at Record Highs — ‘The 2025 Crop Is Tasty Too. Let’s All Eat More, Nationwide’.”
