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The story
The early-sale-day numbers for Morning Musume。’26’s new single “Lonely…But not Alone/Yes ka No ka Watashi ka” came in at No. 4, trailing Hinatazaka46 (371,479 copies), Kyanchu (176,674 copies), and Tokimeki Sendenbu (105,410 copies) — a result that became a hot topic on 5ch’s Hello! Project board. With the single also marking the last for members Sakura Oda and Maria Makino, the thread debated the sales structure propped up by one-on-one meet-and-greet events, the shift from CDs to streaming, and the circumstances behind Makino’s individual sales not being counted in the tally.
What people said
176,674 — Kyanchu
105,410 — Tokimeki Sendenbu
#4 — Morning Musume。'26
I don't know how Kyanchu sells its stuff, but I'm shocked the number's this low. The 'wolf' fandom (their diehard fan nickname) hypes this group so hard everywhere, I figured they were insanely popular.
My bad, typo — I meant Kyanchu.
Kawalabo (their management/label) is already past its peak.
All anyone talks about is the controversies.
Losing to Kyanchu was also likely given Kawalabo's pull.
But losing to Tokimeki Sendenbu — who've been brainwashed by Momoiro Clover Z's bad influence into thinking CD-stacking is evil — that's just over.
Guess you think of us as a top idol group if losing to Tokimeki Sendenbu feels like 'it's over' to you — thanks for that.
In that case, Momoiro Clover Z are the ones in the right lol
Meanwhile Morning Musume's doing full meet-and-greet pushes and still only gets this — that's the real issue.
If this really is Tokimeki Sendenbu's last single, they never once hit No. 1 on the Oricon weekly singles chart.
(They did hit No. 1 with an album, but their best for a single was No. 2.)
proves the agency doesn't care one bit about Oricon rankings anymore.
Back in the day they had Michishige chanting '3 straight No. 1s' like it was a sutra.
The era of competing on CD sales is over.
The way you put it makes it sound like they used to win on CD sales and are now popular on streaming instead.
But they've been losing to other idol groups on CD sales for ages, and they're losing on streaming too.
And apparently the copies from Makino's own individual meet-and-greet push aren't even counted in this number.
Wait, what do you mean?
Will it get added later?
No idea.
Morning Musume fans were making noise about how the sudden release-date change made Makino's efforts count for nothing, or something like that.
Makino's events don't count because they were held more than 3 months before release, while the title was still unannounced.
> Pre-order events must be held within 3 months of the release date,
and each eligible product must have had its details officially announced by the time the pre-order event begins.
fans need to step up and buy to support them.
That's exactly why I said they need to keep doing high-volume, low-margin sales like before — selling 'talk tickets' (event-voucher bundles) — instead of pushing streaming.
There's no way they can just funnel everyone onto streaming.
Hinatazaka46 22.9
Kyan(chu) 66.1
Tokimeki Sendenbu 37.7
Musume。26 2.1
Why are they even competing?
Maybe we should also compare the play counts for each new single —
though obviously Morning Musume。'26 would come in last there too.
Basically, for Hello! Project groups, the one-on-one meet-and-greet sales are what matters most.
Release events play a part too, but it's tough unless you either run a ton of them or push insanely hard to sell endless CDs at a single event.
At this point the agency's real flagship group has to be Juice=Juice.
Morning Musume having few release events is nothing new, it's always been that way.
They dropped it into a brutal release week.
Two years ago, the summer week when Naniwa Danshi, Me:I, and Noimi all dropped on the same day also had all three top contenders posting huge numbers — a seriously stacked week. This week Morning Musume barely squeezes in too, so I guess that makes it a 'big four' week?
Maybe you mean the week with Tsubaki Factory and NGT48?
Even without going back two years — this February had a week with M!LK, Naniwa Danshi, RIIZE, and ≒JOY where 4th place still opened with 276,000 copies.
That's exactly it.
So Makino's individual meet-and-greet sales were for the fans' sake, not something that actually gets added to Morning Musume's official sales total.
It's outside the Oricon counting window, sure, but they were still sold, so it still contributed to actual sales.
Pretty much every idol group drives sales by fans stacking multiple copies for meet-and-greets — can Tokimeki Sendenbu fans just not stack?
Hinatazaka46 / 'Icha Icha Mushi' — 362,007
Morning Musume / 'Lonely…But not Alone' — 276,554
Kyanchu / 'Soui♡So Free' — 264,144
Tokimeki Sendenbu / 'Oomori Happy' — 237,040
So everyone's play counts are kind of weak across the board.
Looks like Kyanchu's controversy-bait marketing didn't pay off.
'Zero wolves' has been sitting there for way too long.
It's been going on nonstop ever since Sato graduated, right up through Sugihara's early joining.
Once a group's structure gets this warped, fixing it takes huge sacrifice and a long time.
Background and Key Points of Discussion
CD sales for Hello! Project groups have largely been propped up by a culture in which fans ‘stack’ copies at each member’s individual meet-and-greet and bonus-goods events. Under Oricon’s counting rules, pre-order events only count toward official sales if they’re held within three months of release and after the product’s details have been publicly announced. The thread’s claim that Makino’s individual sales weren’t reflected in the final number appears to stem from a violation of this rule. Opinions in the thread split between the traditional view that CD sales measure a group’s momentum, and the counterpoint that the agency has shifted its focus to streaming distribution — with posters repeatedly comparing copy counts and Spotify play counts against other groups like Hinatazaka46, Kyanchu, and Tokimeki Sendenbu. Some also noted that Tokimeki Sendenbu’s count was inflated by this being their final single, suggesting it may be premature to use this single ranking alone to compare each group’s usual momentum.
※This article is compiled from excerpts and a summary of the 5ch (Hello! Project board) thread “[Breaking] Morning Musume。’26’s New Single “Lonely…But not Alone/Yes ka No ka Watashi ka” — Early-Sale Figures Not Disclosed, Lands at No. 4“.
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