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The story
U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs has revised its one-year USD/JPY forecast from ¥165 to a stronger ¥150. As of July, the bank had still been calling for further yen weakness, but it reportedly reversed course on expectations of faster Bank of Japan rate hikes and capital flowing back home from overseas. On the thread, some voiced hope that the yen’s slide would finally correct and vented frustration at the government’s fiscal management, while just as many posters shot back with the jaded take that “big banks’ FX forecasts miss all the time” — leaving opinions split over how much weight to put on the forecast itself.
Goldman Revises Yen Forecast to ¥150 per Dollar — Turns From Bearish to Bullish as the Tide Shifts
(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group has revised its one-year yen forecast to ¥150 per dollar, a stronger call than before. The shift away from its bearish July forecast reflects expectations of faster Bank of Japan rate hikes and capital returning to Japan.
Goldman revised its 12-month dollar-yen forecast from ¥165 to ¥150.
Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Read the original article here
What people said
Make it ¥50 to the dollar
like back in 1995.
Come on, it wasn't ¥50 —
pretty sure it bottomed around ¥75.
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"The yen being undervalued is a problem"
Well no kidding. The weak yen really is Takaichi's doing after all.
Being "stoked" is talking about the upside
it's not like there aren't any downsides
Saying you're "stoked" about the weak yen in that moment was bound to get you suspected of endorsing it.
She'd even told the BOJ to keep buying JGBs, and was lukewarm on rate hikes too.
There's no upside to being happy about a weak yen
it just turns the yen into confetti while people buy up foreign assets — pure capital flight
that ends up wrecking the Japanese economy
Chicago futures positioning (CFTC speculator data)
[Breaking] President Trump conveys concern about the weak yen to PM Takaichi at Japan-US summit ★2 [notice★]
https://asahi.5ch.io/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1790331652/
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[Breaking] PM Takaichi: "The yen being undervalued is a problem" ★4 [notice★]
https://asahi.5ch.io/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1790331596/
Flexing status with that stuff is no different from slaves competing over whose chains are shinier.
Wait, are kamaboko boards even imported?
Even if you cut that out, nothing changes as long as you're still importing oil, food, and digital stuff.
Stop buying iPhones and buy Fujitsu or Kyocera phones instead.
Given what Katayama and Jonouchi said yesterday, this is clearly a policy pivot.
Once Yoichi Takahashi disappears from TV, that's when the pivot's really started. He was still talking big on Kansai TV today, so reflation policy is still alive for now.
Re: #39
So what happens to the pork-barrel budget then?
If you hold something forever it's bound to be right eventually
same level as saying "there'll be an earthquake tomorrow" every single day.
money grows while you sleep, we've already won this.
Sounds like the Fairy Flute (a Dragon Quest item that puts enemies to sleep — riffing on "money grows while you sleep")
Probably differs by upper/middle/lower class lol
and probably differs even more by job or position lol
it's true there's a chunk of people saying life was easier back in the deflation era lol
How far does "manipulation" get to hide behind the name "forecast"?
As long as Takaichi keeps running loose fiscal policy, I don't think the weak-yen trend changes.
Proof the money supply isn't actually growing.
The BOJ's just a dumb creature that wants to hike rates no matter what the economy's doing.
A meaningless forecast.
Nothing is less reliable than an analyst's forecast of the future
take notes from weather forecasters.
If they're wrong that often, at least that's easy to work with —
it just means the opposite happens.
Because it's rigged, that's why.
not falling for it.
Goldman's forecasts hit more often than not though
look at the property market blowing up.
They're hitting though
most of their stock picks are mooning too.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
As of this past July, Goldman had been forecasting further yen weakness against the dollar (¥165), so this revision to ¥150 marks a major reversal in its outlook. The reasons cited are an accelerating pace of Bank of Japan rate hikes and speculation that capital which had flowed overseas is now returning home — signaling a shift in how markets are pricing in the future path of monetary policy. On the thread, criticism of the government’s economic management over the persistent weak yen coexisted with skeptical takes that major banks’ FX forecasts are notoriously unreliable to begin with, and no single conclusion emerged. Note that the specific hit-rate figures cited come from individual posts and could not be independently verified.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (News Speed+) thread “U.S. Goldman revises Japanese yen forecast from ¥165 to ¥150 per dollar, citing “increased appeal of holding yen long” amid shifting tide and rate hike expectations.”
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