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The story
A Nikkan Gendai article points out that quite a few women, when matchmaking, reject decent partners one after another, only to later regret it — thinking, “That guy wasn’t so bad, what a waste.” In response, a 5ch thread traded opinions and personal experiences on the “trial dating” system used by matchmaking agencies, the mathematical theory behind timing your choice of partner (the so-called 37% rule), and whether looks or substance should matter more. Notably, participants split over whether it’s even appropriate to frame matchmaking in terms of “gains and losses.”
“That Guy Was a Catch…” Too Late Now! The Pitfall of “Catch-and-Release” Women Who Keep Rejecting Matchmaking Men One After Another | Nikkan Gendai DIGITAL
Miyuki Uekusa
Dating & Matchmaking Advisor
Source: nikkan-gendai.com / Read the original article here
What people said
That's wonderful.
Aren't most of those basically scams or hookup sites though?
In the "Employment Ice Age" threads (Japan's lost generation who job-hunted during the 1990s–2000s recession), the guys whining "it's because of the Ice Age" are just blaming the era and society for their own lack of effort — I can tell, because I'm from the same generation.
It's been 30 years since then. So what exactly have the bottom-tier guys been doing this whole time?
By your logic, every loser out there just needs to work hard, earn 14 million yen a year…
and go bald.
Honestly, that timeline doesn't sound so bad.
Re: #7 is a copypasta.
What actually matters is how many new-grad jobs pay enough to let you save money.
Making 14 million past age 50 is actually below average for Tokyo though.
I hear all the time that women dump guys one after another, figuring that since they're paying money, the agency will just introduce someone even better.
Well, the people being introduced to you also have the same biological instincts you do, so they can only be matched with — and can only choose from — people who are actually interested in their looks and stats. That's the harsh reality.
Anyone who thinks they can get unlimited introductions to great partners who are into them no matter what is just an unpopular person with a wildly inflated view of their own sexual market value.
During the "trial dating" phase you're allowed to see as many people as you want at once, so you absolutely can keep people on hold.
Then again, maybe it's always been this way.
If she's in her 20s, maybe it's forgivable.
By the time a woman's close to 30, most find a compromise and get married.
If you're still single past that, you're better off switching to obsessing over your favorite idol instead.
There are just more people now who can't even do basic cost-benefit math.
Must be rough for the humanities crowd.
For reference, say you're planning to date through 10 people — the optimal strategy is to automatically pass on the first 4, then pick the first person after that who beats all of those first 4 on stats.
Ah, the 37% rule.
But a spouse isn't a secretary hire — if a total catch shows up early and you turn them down, you'd probably spend the rest of your life thinking "what a waste."
I'm a humanities dropout so I don't fully get the math, but if the top 4 candidates happened to come first and the worst one came last, wouldn't you end up "hiring" the worst one? I guess the point is that scenario is extremely unlikely, so doing it the way Re: #38 describes gives you the highest probability of a good outcome.
If you've got some money and friends, that's honestly the easier path.
Marriage, childbirth, and childcare all fall disproportionately on women.
In the old days the husband earned and the wife could just stay home, but that's not realistic anymore — so unless a man who's lacking in personal charm earns really well, no one's going to choose him.
Life's gotten pretty hard for women lately, so if you actually want to get married, it's easy.
Childbirth aside, marriage and childcare aren't really connected lol.
If the woman earns way more, she can absolutely push the childcare duties onto the man.
If that's true, then it doesn't make sense that I can't get married.
Go ahead and post a photo of your face with just your eyes blurred out.
honestly a mystery why people like that are even still alive.
Isn't that just terrible time-efficiency and cost-efficiency?
You should say that to the old guys around here instead — plenty of them have no reason to be alive either.
There was that actress who died of cancer recently, around 40. People have all kinds of reasons for how they live.
People who talk about marriage in terms of time-efficiency and cost-efficiency are basically just admitting "I have a low income."
Anyone under 39 want to marry me?
Just give up on having kids already…
You could probably still find, say, a 48-year-old woman.
You're about 10 years too late to be starting this.
How about with me instead?
28 years old, 179cm, 78kg.
Lean and muscular.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
The “37% rule” that came up in the thread applies the mathematical optimal stopping problem (commonly known as the secretary problem) to matchmaking: the theory holds that your odds of success are highest if you automatically pass on a fixed share of candidates (roughly 37%), then pick the first person after that who beats all the ones before. That said, this is purely a statistically optimal strategy — it offers no guarantee on romance-specific factors like chemistry or feelings. Meanwhile, the “trial dating” system at matchmaking agencies lets clients date multiple people at once, and as several posters noted, the more someone pays, the more likely they are to think “there must be someone even better” and keep their options open — a structure that can easily fuel the “catch-and-release matchmaking” the article describes. The thread split between those criticizing the very idea of choosing a partner by checklist, and those who see approaching matchmaking with calculation as only natural; no clear consensus emerged.
*This article is compiled from excerpts and a summary of the 5ch (News Express+) thread ““That Guy Was a Catch…” Too Late Now! The Pitfall of “Catch-and-Release” Women Who Keep Rejecting Matchmaking Men One After Another.”
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