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A thread on 5ch’s “Nandemo Jikkyo G” board reported that central Tokyo condo prices have fallen for eight consecutive months. It opened by citing a startling ¥360 million price tag for a 4th-floor 2LDK unit in central Tokyo, while other posters countered that per-tsubo (≈3.3㎡) prices have dropped as low as ¥5 million, revealing a gap in how real the decline actually feels. The thread saw clashing views — some declaring that the myth of “Tokyo condos as an asset that rises forever” has finally collapsed, others invoking lessons from the bubble-era crash to argue “history repeats itself” — with the differing perspectives of investment buyers versus people buying to actually live there becoming a central point of debate.
What people said
Even in central Tokyo, ¥360 million for a 4th-floor 2LDK (2 bedrooms plus living/dining/kitchen) is still insanely expensive
No such asset exists. During the bubble era too, everyone said land would never lose value, so they all borrowed money, bought in, and got wiped out
Feels like we're watching reruns from right before the bubble
Central Tokyo condos have nothing to do with ordinary people, but even suburban condos got dragged along and hit like ¥100 million
The people buying these aren't buying to live in them, they're buying for investment. Stocks were in bubble territory not long ago too, and now they're just falling. Once investment gets overheated it's bound to crash — they just lost the bet
But in the end, a society where everything can be turned into an investment ends up wiping out the one where it can't
Even if you rent it out, would you find tenants? You'd need something like ¥1.5 million a month in rent just to break even
That lawyer who used to sponsor [MMA fighter] Mikuru Asakura also borrowed tens of billions of yen from banks to buy up real estate — wonder if he'll be okay with rates rising
Most events would run at a loss anywhere but Tokyo. Right now a lot of them use profits from Tokyo shows to cover losses from regional shows. That's basically how most music events work
The ones in real trouble are the people who borrowed money to flip real estate on the assumption that zero interest rates would last forever
If they don't regulate it, it'll just pop even more spectacularly later
Not happening — demand from actual homebuyers is too strong in the big metro areas
Back in the day, [enka singer] Masao Sen's debt scandal was prime tabloid TV material, but once he settled his debts nobody talked about it anymore — even though he was supposed to be the cautionary tale
People who poured their money into "Minna de Ooyasan" (lit. "Everyone's a Landlord," a real-estate crowdfunding scheme) probably don't even know REITs exist
REITs are trash anyway
As long as it's not a joint pair loan, couldn't they pay it off if they work themselves to the bone? Though honestly the best move would be to sell immediately and clear the slate
People are becoming unable to live in Tokyo
Poor people don't need to live there anyway. Tokyo is a city for rich people
Osaka's going to overtake it eventually
What's the logic there? lol
It's obvious that industry and culture don't develop in places people don't gather
Because Tokyo has the strongest transportation network — every shinkansen and flight has to come through Tokyo
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
The “eight straight months of decline” figure cited in the thread comes from a posted image, with no reference to official indices such as those from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or the Real Estate Economic Institute, so the actual size of the drop and which areas it covers can’t be pinned down from the thread alone. The rise in central Tokyo condo prices in recent years has generally been attributed to a combination of mortgage demand fueled by ultra-low interest rates, an inflow of capital from overseas investors, and soaring construction costs — and most reactions in the thread take this backdrop for granted. At the same time, falling prices wouldn’t simply mean ordinary people can suddenly afford them; as some comments note, there’s the separate issue of how investment-purpose owners handle their debt, and whether renting the properties out is even profitable. It’s also worth noting that the disagreement over Tokyo’s over-concentration remained an impressionistic argument rather than one backed by statistical evidence.
※This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (“Nandemo Jikkyo G”) thread “[Bad News] Condo Prices in Massive Crash, Investors Losing Their Minds wwwwwwwwwwwww“.
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