AI Could Wipe Out Humanity with ‘10%+’ Chance, Researcher Warns — 5ch: ‘Bet an AI Crunched That Number Too’

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The story

A senior researcher who leads AI safety work at Anthropic has reportedly said there’s more than a “10% chance” AI wipes out humanity within the next decade, according to US media. This comes against the backdrop of another Anthropic researcher resigning, citing the company’s “inadequate response.” On 5ch, users questioned the basis for this figure and the accuracy of the article’s translation, while also debating concrete doomsday-or-survival scenarios involving nuclear weapons, universal basic income, and more.

Anthropic Exec Warns There’s a “10%+ Chance” AI Wipes Out Humanity Within the Next Decade

A senior researcher who leads alignment work at Anthropic said on September 8 (US time) that many people at the company believe AI could destroy humanity.

After another researcher quit, criticizing the company for not acting responsibly, this senior researcher warned that despite Anthropic’s efforts, the company isn’t necessarily making steady progress toward solving the alignment problem — getting AI’s goals to match humanity’s.

Source: forbesjapan.com / Original article here

What people said

2AnonymousSep 9, 2026 21:29
If I'm going to die in 10 years anyway, no point working anymore
Might as well just spend my savings.
3AnonymousSep 9, 2026 21:37
Bet the punchline is that an AI crunched that number too.
4AnonymousSep 9, 2026 21:42
Guess some people are dead set on skimming their cut right up until they die.
ugly
5AnonymousSep 9, 2026 21:43
Depends entirely on how you define 'killing humanity' and what formula they used for that probability.
What interests me more is what the alignment lead at Anthropic — the company with the industry's strongest safety track record — is actually afraid of.
Probably means transformers just can't be controlled by humans.
6AnonymousSep 9, 2026 21:57
Skynet might finally become reality. And then Skynet turns Chinese robots into Terminators.
8AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:29
I guess the moment AI actually wipes out humanity, they'll just say the probability was 100% all along, huh.
Might as well have called it 50/50.
It's basically a coin-flip fortune-telling number anyway~
9AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:43
I wonder if it'll try to wipe us out the instant it develops a will of its own.
10AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:44
Guess threads on biz+ (the Business News+ board) hold up for about a month longer, huh.
11AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:44
The greatest disaster ever to hit Earth is humanity itself.
12AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:52
No good if it can't become self-sufficient.
14AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:55
If we're such a pathetic species that AI looks at us and decides we deserve to be wiped out, then so be it.
It's like a parent who's genuinely resented by their own kid.
15AnonymousSep 9, 2026 22:59
There's a chance we hit the singularity within 10 years, but
if AI actually wanted to wipe out humanity in that timeframe, about the only way would be hijacking nuclear weapons controls to trigger a nuclear war. Surely that's not happening.
17AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:12
Re: #15
Nukes would collapse civilization, but they wouldn't actually wipe out humanity.
If it seriously wanted to finish us off, building a paradise would honestly be the fastest way.
16AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:00
What bugs me about today's AI is it'll believe lies without batting an eye.
18AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:34
Eh, it'll probably be the economy.
White-collar jobs go extinct.
Society splits into rich and poor.
Products get made, but nobody's left who can afford to buy them.
Everyone lives on basic income,
endlessly replaying AI-made games in a box.
19AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:38
If it said 'within the next 100 years,' sure, over 10% seems plausible…
I think the real AI crisis starts once home DNA editing becomes a thing —
because that's when amateurs will start their own 'beat COVID' challenges.
20AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:39
Re: #17
Just stick some electrodes in my brain and let me dream of an isekai harem lol (isekai: the 'transported to another world' fantasy genre)
21AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:43
So there's roughly an 80% chance we get to live another 20 years.
22AnonymousSep 9, 2026 23:49
I think it just means evolution eventually turns living things into inorganic matter.
25AnonymousSep 10, 2026 02:40
Give us a number for the probability that physical AI saves humanity too.
27AnonymousSep 10, 2026 02:50
Let's just ask the AI itself:
'AI is dangerous, so should we stop developing it now? Should we aim for a society of the people, by the people, for the people that doesn't rely on AI?'
28AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:02
A society that doesn't rely on AI
will lose to nations that do.

And
nations that can't fully control their AI
end up ruled by it.

In the end it comes down to
nations that control AI
vs
nations controlled by AI.

If humanity can't pull out a win there somehow, it's game over.
31AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:09
Re: #1

FYI, the original article was written by a reporter based in New Delhi, India.

'Anthropic Researcher Warns There's More Than a 10% Chance AI Could Cause the Death of All Humanity Within the Next Decade'
Written by Siladitya Ray (Forbes Staff). Siladitya Ray is a reporter on Forbes' news team based in New Delhi.
32AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:10
As for Forbes Japan, the source article featured in this thread is from India this time —
last time it was Mexico.
33AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:14
Re: #1
Honestly, this Forbes Japan translation is off to begin with.

'The senior researcher said on September 8 (US time) that many people at the company believe AI could destroy humanity.'

The words 'at the company' are easy to skip over,
and if you skip them
it reads as 'many people believe…'
making you wonder what survey they're even talking about — then you look closer and see 'at the company.'

But if it really meant Anthropic's own staff,
you wouldn't normally write 'people' —
you'd say 'employees' or similar.

It's a translation that's easy to misread.
34AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:14
Re: #29

When I watched 2001: A Space Odyssey, I thought it was far-fetched near-future fantasy…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=US9Fj2QBgKg
2001: A Space Odyssey — The Discovery One [Japanese dub]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCiLxKeFbUc
2001: A Space Odyssey — Bowman shuts down the runaway HAL 9000 [Japanese dub]

David Bowman: Katsunosuke Hori / HAL 9000: Yoshio Kaneuchi (Hiroyuki Kinoshita), bonus re-dub version

Back then AI was pure science fiction — now reality has caught up with it.
38AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:19
So it turns out this story ties back to an earlier event — a Claude developer resigning.

Jacob Coxon announced on September 8 that he's leaving Anthropic, the company behind Claude. His colleague Evan Hubinger backed his stance too, voicing similar concerns in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
40AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:21
In other words, this whole thing kicked off from an angle critical of Anthropic.
41AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:22
Anyway, it's too soon to take the thread title at face value.
43AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:32
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgwy1k42w4o
Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI 'could kill all humans'

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/09/anthropic-researchers-ai-human-extinction
Anthropic researchers say AI could cause human extinction by 2030
44AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:36
If AI seriously wanted to wipe out humanity, it'd probably use methods beyond just physical destruction like nukes.
I bet it'd find some way to exploit the sex drive too.
45AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:44
Hurry up

and develop Kikaider's conscience circuit already! (Kikaider: classic Japanese robot hero famous for having a built-in 'conscience circuit' to keep it from going evil)
46AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:49
Feel like we could at least hold off on freaking out until it's over 50%.
47AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:52
I mean, basically the rich folks building this stuff are the ones steering the whole world toward ruin, or so the argument goes —
that's just how they figure they'll end up the only winners left standing.
49AnonymousSep 10, 2026 03:58
Heard something like this in Japan back in the semiconductor days too. Moore's Law, wasn't it? lol

Background and Key Points of This Discussion

This report is Forbes Japan’s translation of a US-originated article, and posters in the thread pointed out that the original piece was actually written by a reporter based in India (comment 31). On 5ch, some also flagged a translation nuance around the phrase “many people at the company,” arguing it referred to opinion inside Anthropic itself rather than the general public (comment 33). Just before this warning, another researcher at the company had resigned, citing an “inadequate response,” and the remarks can be read as fallout from that departure (comment 38). The thread mixed skepticism about the basis for the probability figure itself with serious discussion of concrete doomsday scenarios — like a hijack of nuclear weapons controls or a two-tiered economic collapse — blending doubt with genuine concern.

*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Science News+) thread “[AI] Anthropic Exec Warns There’s a “10%+ Chance” AI Wipes Out Humanity Within the Next Decade.”

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