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The story
As predictions for NHK’s Kohaku Uta Gassen (the Red and White Song Battle) heat up on X (formerly Twitter) and elsewhere, a 5ch thread turned its attention to how “every prediction out there seems to include Juice=Juice.” With =LOVE, CUTIE STREET, and Nogizaka46 treated as near-certain picks, the question became whether Juice=Juice would claim one of the remaining slots. Within Hello! Project, opinions split over pushing Juice=Juice given that fellow group Morning Musume。is approaching its 30th anniversary, with commenters also clashing over singing ability and name recognition.
What people said
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20260816/k00/00m/050/142000c
Vice Minister of Justice Mitani Hidehiro: 'Juice=Juice's song "Moré! Mi Amore." It's my favorite song, it really gets the crowd going'
https://kizuna.5ch.io/test/read.cgi/morningcoffee/1786947530
Putting on a bunch of similar-looking groups actually goes against that 'diversity'
Since it's a 'song battle,' groups that can actually sing should get priority
They've also got the edge of having a hit song known outside idol-fan circles
Going by that, I guess =LOVE and CUTIE STREET would be first-time Kohaku appearances
I think next year there's a decent chance
There's no way it'd be Juice=Juice alone
Wonder if they'd sing 'Koi no Reboliution' (Renai Revolution 21) too?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHXVVqCaYAEWYTf.jpg
NHK's 'Nodo Jiman' featuring Juice=Juice's 'Kurakura☆Climax'
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HP0BqbibkAAYQNH.jpg
Look at data like that and it's pretty obvious
Exactly this
Honestly ANGERME has better odds of making Kohaku
=LOVE's songs rack up huge stream counts, but that's just fandom popularity — the songs themselves aren't known outside the fanbase
The Sakamichi groups sell more, but that's really just meet-and-greet ticket demand
And stuff like Kawalabo's Shin-chan or the Precure theme songs only got support from anime otaku
Exactly that
If anything, ANGERME's 'Vanilla' has been getting more streams lately too
You seriously think the lineup gets decided by Spotify numbers alone?
It's not decided by Spotify alone, but Spotify does give you a rough benchmark
Even back in the Morning Musume。'14 era there were tons of 'lock' predictions and they still got cut, so you can't get complacent — it's a real photo finish
Is this how Hello! Project fans (Harota) always are?
Is it just normal to drag down every group except the one you personally stan?
After all this time without a Kohaku appearance, a group finally has a real shot — that alone should be something to celebrate. Rooting for them to fail just seems awfully sad and lonely
Ignoring the pecking order is absolutely not okay
That's just common sense for any Hello! Project fan
The people permanently camped out on 'Ookami' (the Hello! Project fan BBS board) are mostly older folks stuck at home — they're not like normal Hello! Project fans
It comes down to whether you've got a genuine hit song representing the year and earned it on merit
As long as you're an idol group, it's about whether you fit into the idol slot
The 'girl group on merit' slot is already taken by HANA
Talk in your sleep after you've actually fallen asleep
The general public's take on ANGERME is basically 'Who? Never heard of them'
Background and Key Points
NHK doesn’t officially announce the Kohaku lineup until December each year, so predictions circulating on social media in September are nothing more than fan speculation. The thread zeroed in on two things: Juice=Juice’s signature song ‘Moré! Mi Amore’ has picked up name recognition beyond idol fandom, even getting name-checked by a baseball commentator and a politician, and the fact that Hello! Project has several groups competing for attention at once. With Morning Musume。marking its 30th anniversary next year, some see the agency as wanting to prioritize its flagship group’s appearance, while Juice=Juice has racked up hit songs of its own in recent years — leaving fans divided over which group to back. The debate was further fueled by the fact that groups from other agencies, like =LOVE and CUTIE STREET, are already seen as near-certain to appear. Note that the actual selection criteria and number of slots are never made public, so there’s no guarantee any of these social media predictions will pan out.
※This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Hello! Project board) thread “[Sad News] Predictions for the Kohaku Uta Gassen lineup on X and elsewhere now have Juice=Juice everywhere you look.”
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