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The story
In preparation for a major disaster such as a magnitude earthquake directly beneath Tokyo, it has emerged that Fukuoka, Osaka, Aichi, and Hokkaido all meet the government’s criteria for designation as a ‘sub-capital.’ The draft ordinance is expected to go out for public comment starting Oct. 3 and be promulgated by late this month, with the thinking behind the basic policy to be presented in November. On 5ch, a thread saw clashing views — practical doubts about whether the capital’s authority and chain of command could really be replicated elsewhere, versus arguments that decentralization is needed to fix Tokyo’s over-concentration.
Under laws tied to the ‘sub-capital’ initiative — aimed at backing up the capital’s functions during a major disaster and spreading out Japan’s economic activity — it has emerged that Fukuoka, Osaka, Aichi, and Hokkaido all meet the designation criteria in a draft government ordinance expected to be released as early as Oct. 2. The draft sets requirements covering population and economic scale as well as the presence of regional offices of national government agencies. Multiple government and ruling-party sources disclosed the information.
A prefecture that clears the ordinance’s criteria can apply, and the prime minister then designates it as a sub-capital. Internal Affairs Minister Hisayuki Fujii said on an NHK program on Sept. 20 that the government is ‘considering multiple [cities].’
According to sources, the government will solicit public comments starting Oct. 3 before promulgating the ordinance by late this month. It plans to release its thinking on a basic policy regarding the sub-capital framework in November, with the full basic policy to be compiled by October next year. Local governments are expected to be able to submit applications during that period.
Source: nishinippon.co.jp / Original article here
What people said
First off, the communications network goes down right then, right?
Finance collapses all at once
All the critical data gets lost too
And obviously nobody can travel
So what happens to authority and the chain of command?
It's a non-starter from the get-go
That's probably why I don't think Takaichi is really serious about this either
She probably figures once the bill passes and the designation's made, the job's technically done
You'd need an 'Osaka BOJ Governor' to function in place of the actual BOJ Governor
and an 'Osaka National Police Agency Commissioner' to replace the real one
Yeah, not happening
Sorting out just the BOJ doesn't mean much
What about the Prime Minister?
The Chiefs of Staff for the Maritime, Ground, and Air Self-Defense Forces?
The National Police Agency Commissioner?
Think it through and you realize this whole idea just isn't feasible
There are already 5 people designated as acting PM substitutes
And if commanders are lost, the Defense Ministry/SDF chain of command just passes to whoever's next in rank on site
If Tokyo goes under, it's not like all of Japan can just go down with it
If 'has to be done' were enough to get it done, every country in the world would be thriving by now
Then just leave things as they are
Either way, whichever city survives is going to have to step up and lead regardless
Lol, those acting-PM substitutes are all in Tokyo too
The Defense Ministry/SDF basically can't function without its Chiefs of Staff either
Same goes for the NPA Commissioner
They're not all going to get wiped out ('abōn,' old 2ch slang for 'deleted/gone') at once in a disaster
Also, you're out of date
The SDF now runs a dual structure with a Joint Operations Commander and a Chief of Staff
And police are organized by prefecture anyway, so there's no reason operations would break down
Your logic's got holes
If politics could reliably deliver on everything that 'has to be done,' developing countries wouldn't exist
You're just assuming upfront that what needs to be done can't be done
Realistically, few countries go as extreme on centralization as Japan, and there are plenty of successful decentralized countries out there
Whether it's doable isn't something to decide before even trying
You think the Takaichi administration is going to last 10 years?
Even 'Emperor' Abe (a mocking nickname for ex-PM Abe) couldn't pull that off
I'd get it if you were a kid, but you're a grown man, right?
Realistically, it's not happening
Aren't you just coming up with excuses not to do it and forcing the logic to fit?
There you go again, assuming it only happens under Takaichi
That's something you won't know until the time comes — for now you just quietly do what can be done
Everything you're saying clearly comes from wanting Tokyo's over-concentration to never end, and it's honestly unbecoming
Think about Japan's national interest as a whole for once
The reason companies cluster in Tokyo is because it's convenient being close to the ministries lol
Germany holds a AAA sovereign credit rating and isn't drowning in debt
It's not a one-trick pony on autos either — its chemical/materials industry is strong too
It's world No. 1 in power semiconductors, and it has a software company with a bigger market cap than Toyota
In net foreign assets, it's No. 1, with China No. 2 and Japan No. 3
Germany's paying the price now for skimping hard on defense spending though
Treating 'no debt' as an unqualified good is exactly how Germany ended up paying for decades of underinvestment
Its energy problem is still unresolved, and local governments are in shambles from the strain of immigration
Germany's once-rock-solid machinery industry is in collapse, and the power semiconductor sector you're touting is stalling out right along with the EV slowdown
It's really not in a state anyone should be bragging about
Koizumi, who'll probably be the next PM, is already courting Komeito
Ishin's getting cut loose, and even if it isn't, getting its demands through will become impossible
We're all adults here, let's think realistically — getting emotional just makes you look like a kid, it's embarrassing
Political conditions flip-flop constantly, so nobody needs your pointless personal predictions
There's zero persuasive power in that
'We can't come up with a reason not to do what needs doing now' is way too negative and unconstructive
What happens if a major disaster hits Tokyo?
At the end of the day you're just lining up excuses for why it can't be done.
Consider the option of actually moving in the direction of doing it.
What you're doing is called sophistry
All you've got as a counter is the emotional 'we gotta do it, we gotta do it!' line
No point talking with someone who isn't acting like an adult
Figures you'd run away rather than actually counter it
Pathetic
You keep chanting 'reality, reality' while ignoring the reality that Japan is a disaster-prone country
That right there is pure escapism
I'm the one who wasted my time here
Who's the one actually piling up made-up sophistry dressed as emotional 'can't do it, can't do it!' arguments?
Yuriko (Koike, the Tokyo governor) was delighted.
No idea what Sanae (PM Takaichi) actually thinks about it
The sub-capital designation isn't expected until fall next year at the earliest.
Her term as party president runs through next September.
Nobody even knows if Sanae will be re-elected
So how the sub-capital designation actually plays out
really won't be known until a year from now
The sub-capital-related bill is slated to pass in this fall's extraordinary Diet session
Next fall's party leadership election has nothing to do with it
> 'An area where a Tokyo-area mega-quake won't happen'
To start with, no such place exists anywhere in Japan
That's the whole point of it being a backup for Tokyo — it means not getting hit simultaneously when the Tokyo-area quake happens
Inland active faults are unpredictable, so there's no guarantee whatsoever that it won't get hit at the same time
Nobody expected it in Ishikawa or Kobe either, right?
Whether that's actually true or not is something only inside the NPA Commissioner's own head, right?
Why are you the one deciding it doesn't exist?
Think about it normally — nobody likes hearing about a new post being created equal to their own, right?
Can you understand that much?
Obviously nobody can know what's in the NPA Commissioner's head
So, put yourself in that position
Say you were the president of some company
And one day there's suddenly talk of creating a new post equal to president
Would you welcome that?
Then just station a deputy chief in Osaka or Fukuoka too, problem solved
What are you even on about
It's just the idiots who took out a mortgage to live in central Tokyo who are against it
Yeah, virtual space is plenty
No physical location needed
Housing aside
There are big redevelopment projects everywhere, and they're probably desperate to recoup the money sunk into those
Background and Key Points of Debate
The ‘sub-capital’ initiative is a framework designed for scenarios where central government ministries and financial functions are simultaneously knocked out by a disaster such as a Tokyo-area mega-quake, with a system under consideration for the prime minister to designate sub-capitals at the prefecture level. In the thread, opinions split between those citing the Bank of Japan’s Osaka branch and the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Osaka backup system as evidence that ‘practical substitution is possible,’ and those pointing to the fact that authority to act for the prime minister and command of the National Police Agency and Self-Defense Forces remains concentrated in Tokyo, arguing the plan is ‘just a label with no real effect.’ The basic policy is to be finalized by October next year, and which cities actually get designated — and how far the decentralization of authority actually goes — depends on the application and promulgation process ahead, leaving much still undecided at this point.
*This article is compiled as an excerpt and summary of the 5ch (News Flash+) thread “[Sub-Capital] Fukuoka Meets the Criteria — Hokkaido, Aichi, Osaka Also Clear; Draft Ordinance Expected as Early as the 2nd.”
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