On September 10, Bank of Japan Policy Board member Kazuyuki Masu said in a speech in Fukui City that the BOJ “will continue raising the policy interest rate and adjusting the degree of monetary easing,” noting that the underlying rate of inflation has moved considerably closer to 2%. On the 5ch News Express+ (Newsplus) thread, his remarks set off a wave of speculation about where the dollar-yen exchange rate is headed, with predictions ranging from “Is it heading to 140 yen?” to “Whatever happened to the Kuroda ceiling of 125 yen?” Meanwhile, posters with variable-rate mortgages lamented their rising repayment burdens, and some speculated that the rate hike was driven by pressure from the U.S. or the Trump administration rather than domestic conditions. Commenters also debated whether underlying inflation is really close to 2%, pointing to the gap between the core CPI and the core-core CPI figures.
September 10, 2026, 10:50 AM — Kyodo News
Bank of Japan Policy Board member Kazuyuki Masu said in a speech in Fukui City on the 10th that the BOJ “will continue raising the policy interest rate and adjusting the degree of monetary easing.” He noted that the underlying rate of inflation has moved considerably closer to 2%.
Source: 47news.jp / Original article here
Back when Kuroda was BOJ governor, the 125-yen range was the 'Kuroda ceiling.'
If the short-term rate gap with the US drops below 1.5%, carry trades get wiped out and it'll easily get there.
Apparently, based on Japan's actual economic strength, the 'proper' dollar-yen rate should be around 120.
But yen carry trades and NISA investors piling into the S&P are apparently what's driving the weak yen…
I've still got almost 20 years left… *tears*
I've still got almost 30 years left — bawling my eyes out.
Did the math and the interest portion basically doubled…
I will never forgive Takaichi and Ishin.
Guess it's about time to start making lunch.
A good economy calls for rate hikes.
What good would a rate cut do?
Scary foreign pressure.
You call it foreign pressure, but the yen got weak precisely because the BOJ had no independence — it just listened to the LDP and refused to raise rates for years without reading the situation.
A quarter of the dollar's rate, half the euro's — nobody could seriously think that wouldn't weaken the currency.
They knew it would happen and still didn't act.
That's a very different level of responsibility than someone like you who just didn't know.
Guess the US finally couldn't stay quiet anymore.
Well, they waited almost 10 years, so fair enough at this point.
but at this point, a mere 0.25% hike probably won't even do anything…
A surprise 0.5% hike, maybe?
Or they go with 0.25% and hint at back-to-back hikes next month.
If the Fed hikes too, that'll probably blow it all away in an instant.
September 18: BOJ policy rate decision
Then the US midterm elections on November 3
My prediction: the Japan-US rate gap narrows, triggering a yen carry trade unwind.
In other words, a yen-strengthening trend.
So, let's see.
Unfortunately, Trump becomes a lame duck (literally 'scarecrow') come November.
The US is in a rate-hike rush too.
Turkish lira incoming.
They're hiking because banks can't afford to lend anymore.
If the rich took on the risk and lent freely at low rates, rates could come down.
Bessent: 'Stop the aggressive fiscal spending.'
↓
Takaichi: 'Okay.'
↓
Second supplementary budget shelved
↓
Bessent: 'Don't interfere with the BOJ's rate hikes.'
↓
Takaichi: '???' ← We are here
↓
Bank of Japan
Come November, Takaichi goes back to being her normal self.
Trump and Bessent fade away.
The guys cheering for a weak dollar get weeded out.
That'll be after the December FOMC meeting.
On September 16 they'll probably cut rates.
The midterms are November 3, so the side effects come after that.
There are going to be more houses than buyers from here on out.
The weak yen wouldn't stop even with the consumption tax as is, so of course rates have to go up.
A Reiwa-era Plaza Accord
A Reiwa-era 'Oniheiji' (a ruthless, no-mercy enforcer, after the famous Edo-period lawman)
A Reiwa-era strong-yen recession — masses of seniors thrown onto the street and told it's their own responsibility
Seniors who lived through the dollar at 80 yen can probably handle this.
If anything, it's the young long-position traders who never experienced that who'll go bankrupt and fall into the clutches of 'tokuryu' crews (loosely organized crime groups that recruit accomplices anonymously online).
But to keep Trump happy — since he hates a weak dollar — Bessent also has to push for BOJ rate hikes and talk Japan into buying back US Treasuries.
It's a tricky balancing act for the US too.
What Trump actually hates is a strong dollar — it means iPhones don't sell.
'The underlying rate of inflation has moved considerably closer to 2%.'
But the current inflation rate is only 1.9% overall, and just 1.4% once you exclude food and energy.
Where exactly is this '2%' coming from?
By global standards it's the core-core CPI that matters —
once that crosses 2%, a rate hike comes into consideration.
Though other price indicators get factored in too.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
The Bank of Japan’s policy rate stayed pinned down for years under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda before entering a period of gradual hikes in recent years. The “Kuroda ceiling” mentioned in the thread refers to the roughly 125-yen-to-the-dollar level that was treated as a de facto defense line at the time. On the inflation target, commenters focused on the gap between headline CPI and the core-core CPI (which excludes fresh food and energy). As one reply (#123) pointed out, headline inflation sits at 1.9% while core-core is only around 1.4%, so it isn’t clear from the article alone which measure the BOJ is using to back its claim that inflation is “moving closer to 2%.” The thread also floated the idea that remarks by US Treasury Secretary Bessent are adding pressure for a rate hike — but that’s purely speculation from the board, not something the BOJ has officially acknowledged as tied to US relations. For people with variable-rate mortgages, a rising policy rate directly increases monthly payments, and the thread showed a clear generational divide in how that reality was received.
*This article is compiled as an excerpt and summary of the 5ch (Newsplus) thread “[Breaking] BOJ Policy Board Member Says ‘Rate Hikes to Continue’.”
