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A thread on the 5ch message board heated up over whether Hello! Project’s new unit “Tsubaki Factory” is getting preferential treatment from its management company. The spark was a comparison of 2026 music-video counts for new songs: Tsubaki Factory and Rosy Chronicle each got 5 MVs, while Juice=Juice got just 1. Rather than settling the “favoritism” question outright, posters offered up theories pointing to differences in which company holds the publishing rights to each group’s songs, and to internal factional dynamics between groups — with opinions split between those defending the situation and those criticizing it.
What people said
Maybe it's simply that Tsubaki's team is just better at using their budget?
Also, their manager's sales/negotiating skills probably count for a lot.
Though I guess if you call "being assigned that team" favoritism in itself, there's not much more to say…
Also, their manager's sales/negotiating skills probably count for a lot.
Though I guess if you call "being assigned that team" favoritism in itself, there's not much more to say…
If the "idols retire at 25" theory (a running fan theory that idols should age out at 25) had actually been enforced, Kawanishi would've become leader — makes you think a retirement age is actually necessary.
Re: #3
If that had happened, Yagi Shiori might not have quit.
She might've gotten to keep dreaming a little longer.
If that had happened, Yagi Shiori might not have quit.
She might've gotten to keep dreaming a little longer.
If even "Ai Un En On" (their new single) can't go viral worth a damn, this group is done for.
Re: #5
If anything, I think it's worse that their all-out effort "Mappira Datteba!" ("No Way, I Said!") got zero attention.
"Ai Un En On" is catchy, sure, but generic and overrated.
If anything, I think it's worse that their all-out effort "Mappira Datteba!" ("No Way, I Said!") got zero attention.
"Ai Un En On" is catchy, sure, but generic and overrated.
Someone's launched into a mysterious bit of self-justification — did something happen?
Re: #7
Justification for what, exactly?
Justification for what, exactly?
The "retire at 25" rule got scrapped ages ago — the three "Seasoning" members of BEYOOOOONDS are already past it.
Re: #8
Tsubaki's actually the one getting the short end of the stick.
Tsubaki's actually the one getting the short end of the stick.
They're super favored, lol.
If they'd split Tsubaki's and Rosy's resources in half and given that half to Juice instead, Juice might've had a shot at Kōhaku (NHK's televised New Year's Eve song special).
Of course the reason Juice can't get on Kōhaku comes down to weak numbers, but the reason they can't put up numbers is that they're weak within the agency's internal pecking order.
Hello! Project is an old, established outfit, so internal factional infighting is brutal — even among the fans, everyone's pulling each other down.
Juice's faction is one of the weakest inside Hello! Project.
Hello! Project can never pull together as one when it counts, so this is how it keeps losing.
Hello! Project 2026 new-song MV counts:
Morning Musume. — 2
Angerme — 3
Tsubaki Factory — 5
BEYOOOOONDS — 3
OCHA NORMA — 3
Rosy Chronicle — 5
Juice=Juice — 1 ←←←←←←
If they'd split Tsubaki's and Rosy's resources in half and given that half to Juice instead, Juice might've had a shot at Kōhaku (NHK's televised New Year's Eve song special).
Of course the reason Juice can't get on Kōhaku comes down to weak numbers, but the reason they can't put up numbers is that they're weak within the agency's internal pecking order.
Hello! Project is an old, established outfit, so internal factional infighting is brutal — even among the fans, everyone's pulling each other down.
Juice's faction is one of the weakest inside Hello! Project.
Hello! Project can never pull together as one when it counts, so this is how it keeps losing.
Hello! Project 2026 new-song MV counts:
Morning Musume. — 2
Angerme — 3
Tsubaki Factory — 5
BEYOOOOONDS — 3
OCHA NORMA — 3
Rosy Chronicle — 5
Juice=Juice — 1 ←←←←←←
Re: #14
So it really is because they're a unit the chairman hasn't "marked as his own" (lit. no trace of his saliva on them) that they're getting the cold shoulder?
So it really is because they're a unit the chairman hasn't "marked as his own" (lit. no trace of his saliva on them) that they're getting the cold shoulder?
Re: #17
Probably an issue with who the publishing rights are split with.
Musume, Angerme, and Ocha Norma all go through TV Tokyo Music.
Tsubaki goes through TV Asahi Music.
BEYOOOOONDS and Rosy aren't split at all — they're in-house (that's why the producer Hoshibe gets used so often for them).
Only Juice splits rights with T's Music Publishing (a subsidiary of Tanabe Agency).
The reason only Juice is tied to a Tanabe subsidiary goes back to when Tsunku's "Nice Girl Project" flopped and Up-Front pulled out of TNX — Tanabe stepped in and covered the shares, so Up-Front owes them a debt of gratitude.
The promise made at the time was that the publishing rights for whatever group came next would go to Tanabe — and that's how Juice=Juice ended up getting created.
But debt of gratitude or not, Tanabe's still an outside company at the end of the day, so Up-Front doesn't really want to put much effort in on that front (the profit margin isn't as good).
In other words, the person who set Juice=Juice up to get the cold shoulder from Up-Front was Tsunku (lol).
Probably an issue with who the publishing rights are split with.
Musume, Angerme, and Ocha Norma all go through TV Tokyo Music.
Tsubaki goes through TV Asahi Music.
BEYOOOOONDS and Rosy aren't split at all — they're in-house (that's why the producer Hoshibe gets used so often for them).
Only Juice splits rights with T's Music Publishing (a subsidiary of Tanabe Agency).
The reason only Juice is tied to a Tanabe subsidiary goes back to when Tsunku's "Nice Girl Project" flopped and Up-Front pulled out of TNX — Tanabe stepped in and covered the shares, so Up-Front owes them a debt of gratitude.
The promise made at the time was that the publishing rights for whatever group came next would go to Tanabe — and that's how Juice=Juice ended up getting created.
But debt of gratitude or not, Tanabe's still an outside company at the end of the day, so Up-Front doesn't really want to put much effort in on that front (the profit margin isn't as good).
In other words, the person who set Juice=Juice up to get the cold shoulder from Up-Front was Tsunku (lol).
But Tsubaki's still not selling at all, right?
Re: #15
Right.
Including how blessed they are with good songs, how they're marketed, and the chances they get — it just means the "box" itself (the group as a product) doesn't have much appeal.
Right.
Including how blessed they are with good songs, how they're marketed, and the chances they get — it just means the "box" itself (the group as a product) doesn't have much appeal.
They've got Lesser (a fan nickname for one of the members), so there's a real reason for the favoritism.
Re: #16
Is Lesser really a big enough member to deserve that kind of favoritism?
Is Lesser really a big enough member to deserve that kind of favoritism?
To begin with, the fact that they're aggressively pushing people like "Ritokyame" and "Hinazukingu" (member nicknames) is already favoritism.
It wouldn't have been weird at all for them to disband before the Kohira incident, but it's only because Kobushi Factory disbanded first that they're still around.
It wouldn't have been weird at all for them to disband before the Kohira incident, but it's only because Kobushi Factory disbanded first that they're still around.
Re: #23
Disbanding before the Kohira incident would've been completely wrong.
If anything, the peak was the stretch from right around then, through Tori and Kyame joining, all the way up through the "gay bar" era.
Disbanding before the Kohira incident would've been completely wrong.
If anything, the peak was the stretch from right around then, through Tori and Kyame joining, all the way up through the "gay bar" era.
From the songwriters' perspective, songs that were meant for Juice get handed to Tsubaki instead and go nowhere, and people who wanted to join Juice get funneled into Tsubaki and left for dead — what the agency's doing is just no good.
Re: #31
If you check the JASRAC publishing records for "Karei Naru Revenger" ("Gorgeous Revenger"), T's Music Publishing has been dropped and it's now TV Tokyo Music only.
If that's not just because it's a digital-only release or an anime tie-in, and this becomes the permanent setup going forward, then Juice=Juice won't really start getting pushed properly until next year (and conversely, Musume/Angerme/Ocha Norma get starved even more).
If you check the JASRAC publishing records for "Karei Naru Revenger" ("Gorgeous Revenger"), T's Music Publishing has been dropped and it's now TV Tokyo Music only.
If that's not just because it's a digital-only release or an anime tie-in, and this becomes the permanent setup going forward, then Juice=Juice won't really start getting pushed properly until next year (and conversely, Musume/Angerme/Ocha Norma get starved even more).
Re: #36
It's too late now.
They did nothing all year and missed out on Kōhaku because of it.
There's no way Hello! Project can produce a bigger viral hit than "Moremi."
The members' and fans' morale is probably broken too.
Next year's the 30th anniversary, so Up-Front's main forces are about to go full throttle pushing Morning Musume.
Not pushing Juice at all this year was genuinely idiotic.
It's too late now.
They did nothing all year and missed out on Kōhaku because of it.
There's no way Hello! Project can produce a bigger viral hit than "Moremi."
The members' and fans' morale is probably broken too.
Next year's the 30th anniversary, so Up-Front's main forces are about to go full throttle pushing Morning Musume.
Not pushing Juice at all this year was genuinely idiotic.
Re: #35
If they'd given "Mappira Datteba!" to Juice at that timing, it probably would've been a decent hit.
That much, I do think is true.
If they'd given "Mappira Datteba!" to Juice at that timing, it probably would've been a decent hit.
That much, I do think is true.
Re: #37
Though Juice=Juice doesn't need a single song of the type they'd assign to Tsubaki Factory.
Though Juice=Juice doesn't need a single song of the type they'd assign to Tsubaki Factory.
Re: #38
Still, that'd be better than a weird song like "Kurakura Climax."
Still, that'd be better than a weird song like "Kurakura Climax."
Re: #38
There was a thread going wild saying "just hand Juice the song 'Aiueo' already" —
"we'll give you 'Jitanda Dance' in exchange," they said.
There was a thread going wild saying "just hand Juice the song 'Aiueo' already" —
"we'll give you 'Jitanda Dance' in exchange," they said.
Kobushi (Factory) is calling from nirvana.
"Tsubaki~ you come over here too," it says.
"Tsubaki~ you come over here too," it says.
Re: #41
All of Kobushi's resources went to Ocha Norma.
They can't even make it to nirvana — they're stuck wandering.
All of Kobushi's resources went to Ocha Norma.
They can't even make it to nirvana — they're stuck wandering.
Don't you need to sell over 600,000 CDs just to turn a solid profit on the CD alone?
How many is Tsubaki even selling?
How many is Tsubaki even selling?
Re: #43
No way that's true.
Even across all of history, maybe only around 5,000 songs ever have sold 600,000+ copies.
Depending on promotion costs, you'd turn a profit at around 20,000-30,000 copies.
By your math, only Morning Musume's golden-era releases would ever have been profitable.
No way that's true.
Even across all of history, maybe only around 5,000 songs ever have sold 600,000+ copies.
Depending on promotion costs, you'd turn a profit at around 20,000-30,000 copies.
By your math, only Morning Musume's golden-era releases would ever have been profitable.
Since Morning Musume's stuff is basically all Tsunku♂, wouldn't it be fine if Tsubaki's was all Takui?
Re: #56
Takui can't really write that many songs, and his range is narrow — everything reeks of that same "Takui smell."
Takui can't really write that many songs, and his range is narrow — everything reeks of that same "Takui smell."
Re: #56
The chairman was hoping for that, but
Takui just doesn't have the ability to mass-produce songs.
The chairman was hoping for that, but
Takui just doesn't have the ability to mass-produce songs.
Because Yamazaki Aoi got taken by the Milk camp.
Re: #109
Releasing Wednesday, January 20, 2027:
Asakura Juju's 1st single
"Nanadoichibu / Mada Suiyoubi" (track order TBD)
"Nanadoichibu"
Lyrics: Yamazaki Aoi 👈 Composition/Arrangement: Shirasuka Satoru
"Mada Suiyoubi" ("Still Wednesday")
Lyrics/Composition: Tokuda Koki Arrangement: Hirata Shoichiro
Releasing Wednesday, January 20, 2027:
Asakura Juju's 1st single
"Nanadoichibu / Mada Suiyoubi" (track order TBD)
"Nanadoichibu"
Lyrics: Yamazaki Aoi 👈 Composition/Arrangement: Shirasuka Satoru
"Mada Suiyoubi" ("Still Wednesday")
Lyrics/Composition: Tokuda Koki Arrangement: Hirata Shoichiro
Re: #109
I get the feeling Yamazaki Aoi had a seriously killer new song ready for Juice.
And yet Up-Front is the kind of company that skips offering it to her and goes to Hirose Kōmi instead.
I get the feeling Yamazaki Aoi had a seriously killer new song ready for Juice.
And yet Up-Front is the kind of company that skips offering it to her and goes to Hirose Kōmi instead.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
Hello! Project is home to multiple groups — Morning Musume., Angerme, Tsubaki Factory, and others — and the copyright on each group’s songs is split under contracts with different music publishers (TV Tokyo Music, TV Asahi Music, and so on) depending on the group. As the thread noted, Juice=Juice is the sole exception: due to the history of an earlier project Tsunku was involved with, it’s contracted with T’s Music Publishing, part of the Tanabe Agency group — and the theory that this difference in rights structure is driving the gap in media exposure formed the core of the discussion. At the same time, some pointed out that “even with favoritism, they’re still not selling,” arguing that favoritism and a group’s actual popularity are separate issues. Specific figures like the break-even point for CD sales varied from poster to poster, so they shouldn’t be taken as settled numbers.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hello! Project) thread “It’s Not Like Tsubaki Is Actually Being Favored by the Agency.”
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