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The story
News that a research team including Toho University used computer simulations to estimate that life on Earth has only about 1 billion years left became a hot topic on 5ch’s Science News+ board. Reactions to the 1-billion-year figure were mixed: some took an optimistic view, noting it’s still a long time compared to Earth’s 4.6-billion-year history, while others were pessimistic, pointing out it’s just a blink of an eye compared to the 7 million years since humanity emerged. Responses ranged widely — from predictions that humanity could survive via Dyson spheres, terraforming, or evolving into AI, to comments that extinction is inevitable anyway given the sun’s lifespan, so there’s no point worrying about it.
2026.10.03 (Sat)
Overseas Science
Computer simulations have predicted that life on Earth has only about 1 billion years left to survive.
Source: yorozoonews.jp / Original article here
What people said
By then it wouldn't be surprising if humanity had already gained access to the outside of the universe.
I have a feeling that even if all current life dies out,
new life would just emerge again.
As the sun's brightness increases, the oceans will evaporate and eventually disappear.
Without oceans, new life can't arise.
At best, existing microbes might quietly survive deep underground.
"I completely fail to understand the reason for ditching the best spaceship in the universe [Earth] to switch to a piece of junk."
still be playing volleyball and stuff?
Before that though, we'll have to survive repeated supervolcanic eruptions.
"Huh, seriously? That's bad."
Once life fully sheds its physical body and becomes data, it'll travel on light.
Just like our ancestors once did, we'll have no choice but to go search for another Earth-like planet.
Even at light speed, that's not enough for the vastness of the universe.
A) There were no invertebrates yet — only prokaryotes,
and the atmosphere had very little oxygen.
—
★ If 100 million years = 1 year old, Earth's history looks like this:
Age 00: Dust and gas gather in a corner of the galaxy, forming the sun and its planets
Age 01: A Mars-sized planet collides with Earth, creating the Moon
Age 06: Oldest rocks
Age 12: Oldest prokaryote fossils
Age 22: First global ice age (Snowball Earth)
Age 39: Second global ice age (Snowball Earth)
Age 40: Invertebrates appear
Age 41: Plants move onto land; oxygen levels reach today's 20%
Age 42: Arthropods move onto land
Age 43: Ferns flourish
Age 44: Mammals appear
Age 45: Age of the dinosaurs (went extinct 70 million years ago after a massive meteorite impact)
Age 46: Humans appear
The sun's going to expand, so the seawater will evaporate too.
But the era of single-celled life in the ocean lasted 3 billion years.
Multicellular animals have only been around for about 600 million years.
Though by the time that's possible, we'll probably have already expanded beyond the solar system.
If we've got a billion years, just get a parasol ready and call it done.
but this might be cutting it a bit close.
There's probably something like a 1-in-100-million-year chance of a star with a life-bearing planet passing close to the sun,
so migrating at that moment seems to be the only option, haha;;
No matter how advanced civilization or science and technology get, there's nothing to be done about how vast and empty the universe is.
× "planet with life activity"
○ "planet capable of supporting life" [self-correction]
What'll it be 1 billion years from now, I wonder.
Nuclear stuff is probably about to get out of hand soon —
there's no way to dispose of it after all.
A billion years is 143 times 7 million years.
An oxygen-free civilization might be possible.
It wasn't oxygen-based to begin with, way back.
Oxygen only won out in the survival race because it's more energy-efficient.
So if oxygen decreases, wouldn't the ecosystem just flip back again?
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
The underlying research reportedly predicts that as the sun gradually brightens, atmospheric CO2 will decrease, causing photosynthetic organisms to decline. This would trigger a sharp drop in oxygen levels, returning the atmosphere to a low-oxygen state similar to before the Great Oxidation Event roughly 2.4 billion years ago. That’s why “oxygen is the key.” In the thread, opinions clashed between those who felt 1 billion years seems short compared to Earth’s full 4-billion-year history of life, and those who pointed out that since the era of single-celled ocean life lasted 3 billion years, the age of multicellular life (about 600 million years) is itself still young. Opinions also split between optimists who believe Dyson spheres, terraforming, or a transition to AI could get life through it, and pessimists who argued that no technology can overcome the sheer vastness of the universe.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Science News+) thread “Life on Earth Has About 1 Billion Years Left, Toho University and Others Estimate — Oxygen Is the Key“.
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