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The story
On the Game/Hardware board (Geha), a thread predicting first-week sales for Bandai Namco’s new title Ace Combat 8 was heating up. First-week sales figures for the previous title, Ace Combat 7, differ depending on the source — 202,000 units according to Media Create, versus 158,968 according to Famitsu — and replies were immediately divided over which figure to use as the baseline. On top of that, some pointed out that Ace Combat 7 came with a PS4-exclusive pre-order bonus (a copy of the previous game), whereas Ace Combat 8’s bonus is the same across all platforms, removing the factor that had favored PlayStation sales. Others speculated that since Bandai Namco isn’t a games-only company, there may be little sense of urgency internally about weak sales performance.
What people said
"Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown" — 202,000 units. From the "Weekly Sales Ranking+" list, which also featured "Yakuza 4: Legend of the Successor"
https://www.4gamer.net/games/117/G011794/20190123074/
So something that sold 200k is now down to 20k, huh
Well, a normal company would be concerned, but this is Bandai Namco — forever loyal to PlayStation (never forgets a favor)
They'll probably keep favoring PS from here on out too
It's 150k according to Famitsu, isn't it?
Why are you using Media Create's number?
01./00. [PS4] Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown # <STG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.17} (¥7,600) – 158,968 / NEW <80-100%>
If it sold 200k on PS4, normally on PS5 it should be roughly half that, around 100k (Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, and the Warriors titles all saw sales halve too)
If it comes in below that, the problem would have to be with the game itself — we'll see
Even if it bombs hard on PS5, they can cover it with mobile and other stuff
That's why they won't stop favoring PlayStation
No sense of crisis at all
Everything else is doing fine, it's just the games division that keeps declining — normally the person in charge would be sitting on pins and needles over that
It felt less like pure dogfighting and more like being forced through ground-attack missions and annoying "buzzwire" precision segments (like the wire-loop game where touching the wire buzzes you)
8 doesn't look much different from the last one at a glance either
Also, when you roll your plane the whole screen rotates with it — a terrible design choice you can't turn off, which makes it harder to control
There's supposedly a "Standard" control scheme for beginners,
but that comes with the downside of wide, sluggish turns, which also sucks
If none of that's been fixed, I probably won't buy it
It's apparently improved a bit over 7,
but this time there's escort missions and time-limited "buzzwire" missions instead
Nah, that's actually better — at least it's not the electric buzzwire game
No way
That game sold 100k in physical copies domestically alone
And this hasn't buzzed overseas like Onimusha did either
There's no demand for early access
Can't even wait until release day? How addicted to games are you
Even physical copies get early access if you buy the limited edition
Until the limited edition sells out, it splits popularity with the standard edition, so the first week shouldn't look as dismal as the standard-edition numbers alone would suggest
But if it was relying on the limited edition, you can imagine how sales will look from week two onward
Honestly I wanted the Xbox-exclusive AC6 instead
Would've been fine if they released it separately for other platforms later
That's exactly why I'm saying it's not gonna happen
It'll probably outsell Star Fox at least
Just sticking with the buzzwire missions is only going to keep shrinking the playerbase
To begin with, modern warfare has changed so much
that fighter-jet dogfighting itself is starting to feel like pure fantasy
Applying the usual "platform barrier" correction (a rough discount fans apply when predicting a sequel's sales based on install-base differences) that knocks off about 60%, that'd put it around 80,000 units
Though I have a feeling it'll come in even lower than that…
Famitsu says 150k
01./00. [PS4] Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown # <STG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.01.17} (¥7,600) – 158,968 / NEW <80-100%>
Even within games, pretty much the only title still doing well and carrying them is G Generation, which came out years ago
And relying on that one title forever is honestly pretty pathetic
They poured resources into stuff like Blue Protocol and ended up completely worn out
Also Dokkan Battle
Bandai's IP side is so strong that it's unclear what Namco is even there for anymore
Though their amusement/arcade business is still solid, I guess
'No demand' is just your imagination
It's stayed high on the Steam charts the whole time, and lately it's held the No. 1 spot
No way you can say it's not selling with that
I'm not really interested in Ace Combat's overall sales
What I care about is specifically its PS5 sales
Obviously Steam sales don't contribute to PS5 numbers at all — that's just common sense
That said, since Famitsu's weekly rankings should be compared against other Famitsu numbers, it's a fair point that AC7 should be counted using Famitsu's 158k figure
If Steam eats up the market share, PS5 is finished 🤭
The standard edition is about ¥10,000, right?
The difference is only around ¥2,000
If it came with a season pass I'd have bought the deluxe edition
But since it doesn't, I'm going with the standard edition
That just proves it's only selling on Steam lol
Steam is digital-only after all
Nobody knows the digital-download ratio broken down by platform, so that doesn't prove anything
But it is true that once you include Steam, digital makes up the vast majority of sales
Which means anyone arguing based on physical copies alone is a fool
Background and Key Points of Debate
Ace Combat 7 launched on January 17, 2019, with first-week sales reported as 202,000 units by Media Create and 158,968 units by Famitsu. In Japan, home console sales figures are independently estimated by two separate research firms, Media Create and Famitsu, and discrepancies between their reported numbers — often due to differences in which stores are surveyed — are not unusual. In the thread, opinion split over which figure should serve as the baseline for predicting Ace Combat 8’s first week, and another point of debate was whether sales would drop off from the second week onward as a reaction to the previous title’s reliance on limited-edition pre-order bonuses. Bandai Namco also operates a diversified business spanning toys and hobby goods, amusement facilities, and mobile games, and this structure — where weak console game sales don’t immediately threaten the company as a whole — is likely behind the thread’s comments about a ‘lack of urgency.’
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry (Geha)) thread “[Amazon] Ace Combat 8 — Past Month: 3,000 Points.”
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