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The story
In a Hello! Project thread, a pattern kept repeating: whenever someone predicted Juice=Juice’s future, other posters fired back with “no, say that once it actually happens.” It started with wishful thinking like “I bet they’ll still be buzzing next year,” which prompted pushback from posters armed with tables comparing member tenure and data on Morning Musume’s popularity trends. The debate went beyond simple ribbing, splitting opinion over whether it’s fair to map Morning Musume’s slump around 2017 onto Juice=Juice’s current standing — with some replies even citing tour ticket sales figures as evidence.
What people said
4,127 days – 植村あかり
3,371 days – 段原瑠々 (since 2017/06/26)
3,194 days – 金澤朋子
2,909 days – 高木紗友希
2,845 days – 宮本佳林
2,653 days – 工藤由愛・松永里愛 (since 2019/06/14)
2,361 days – 井上玲音 (since 2020/04/01)
2,303 days – 宮崎由加
1,899 days – 有澤一華・入江里咲・江端妃咲 (since 2021/07/07)
1,542 days – 石山咲良・遠藤彩加里 (since 2022/06/29)
1,447 days – 稲場愛香
1,214 days – 川嶋美楓 (since 2023/05/23)
623 days – 梁川奈々美
452 days – 林仁愛 (since 2025/06/23)
130 days – 大塚愛菜
Yep, confirmed Oyaki-jiji. Nice work, lol (乙 = sarcastic "good job")
Is this one no good either?
No good — that's just delusion.
Say it once it actually happens.
Is this one no good?
April 2023 April 2028
譜久 26 段原 26
石田 26 井上 26
生田 25 有澤 24
小田 24 石山 24
野中 23 工藤 23
牧野 22 松永 22
横山 22 入江 22
羽賀 21 江端 21
北川 19 川嶋 20
岡村 17 遠藤 19
山﨑 17 林 16
櫻井 17
That's the period when Morning Musume was jammed with "obasan" (older) members and everything was in chaos.
Juice=Juice's lineup is about to look basically the same soon.
The problem with Morning Musume wasn't that it was full of "old" members — it's that it wasn't selling and wasn't interesting, and the younger members got dragged down along with them.
2027 is Hello! Project's 30th anniversary, so nobody's leaving around then. If by that point either Inoue or Arisawa has announced graduation, that'd actually count as the better-case scenario.
Claiming this whole lineup won't even exist and that 3 or 4 members will have quit by then — that's the delusional part.
Morning Musume, which had been on a steady decline ever since "Wonfour" (a specific past tour/release), and Juice=Juice, which is now at its absolute peak after a slow build finally exploding — the situations a few years before each group's peak were completely different, no?
Don't waste effort seriously arguing with Juice=Juice haters.
Morning Musume's audience turnout peaked in '17.
Say that once it actually happens.
Say that once it actually happens.
That's the Kudo Haruka graduation bump for you.
The spring tour was already completely sold out before Kudo's graduation was even announced.
Some shows didn't even go on sale through ticket agencies until after the graduation announcement, so that's physically impossible.
Well obviously — that fall was Kudo Haruka's graduation tour.
That's exactly why there are unsold tickets for Oda's graduation tour.
Even now, if Morning Musume ran a tour at their old scale it wouldn't sell out. The spring tour was already small-scale, and the Hokkaido date sat unsold for ages.
Say that once they're actually gone.
Since it sold out in the end anyway, the Hitaru show (likely a venue reference) should fill up easily too, no?
Say that once it's actually done.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
Juice=Juice is a Hello! Project group whose popularity has been climbing in recent years — as the thread’s tenure chart shows, its core is built around members like Danbara Ruru and Inoue Reon, who’ve now been in the group for six to nine years. The comparison group, Morning Musume, went through a stretch around 2017 when it had been “on a steady decline ever since Wonfour,” before clawing back its audience numbers, helped along by the boost from Kudo Haruka’s graduation. The fact that 2027 marks Hello! Project’s 30th anniversary was also raised as a reason to expect fewer departures or graduations around that time.
Where the thread split was over whether it’s fair to simply map Morning Musume’s slump onto Juice=Juice’s current situation. One camp argued that “Morning Musume back then and Juice=Juice now are in totally different positions,” while the other took the more pessimistic view that “they’ll eventually walk the same path.” “Say that once it actually happens” is a classic 5ch comeback aimed at baseless predictions about the future — less mockery, more a pointed reminder that “the prophecy hasn’t come true yet.” Some posts backed their claims with hard numbers like tour ticket sales, which is worth flagging for readers, since it’s easy for opinion and fact to blur together in threads like this.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hello! Project) thread ““Juice=Juice will probably become ~ in the future” 👈 No, say that once it actually happens lol.”
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