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The story
Nihon Falcom has released its financial results for the fiscal year ended September 2026, showing ordinary income more than doubling (up 2.1x) year-on-year to 2.9 billion yen. However, the company forecasts a sharp drop for the fiscal year ending September 2027 — down 48.4% to 1.5 billion yen — citing only one new title scheduled for release and the cooling momentum of the hit “Trails in the Sky” remake. On the forum, opinions split: some pointed to president Kondo’s remarks that new users have grown mainly through Switch and Steam, while the PS-exclusive “Kai no Kiseki” series has seen its new-user base shrink, arguing the next entry, “Kai no Kiseki II,” should go multiplatform. Others pushed back, arguing the sales growth was driven by separate factors like the timing of the Steam launch, and had nothing to do with the exclusivity strategy itself.
What people said
Revenue Operating profit Retained earnings Title released
2002 *870 million yen 280 million yen
2003 1.22 billion yen 350 million yen 340 million yen Ys VI
2002 *870 million yen 280 million yen
2003 1.22 billion yen 350 million yen 340 million yen Ys VI
Nihon Falcom <3723.T> [TSE Growth] announced earnings in the afternoon session (2:00 PM) on November 11. Non-consolidated ordinary income for the fiscal year ended September 2026 more than doubled (2.1x) year-on-year to 2.9 billion yen, but the forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2027 calls for a 48.4% drop to 1.5 billion yen.
Doesn't look good.
Doesn't look good.
Re: #8
Regarding our earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2027: with only one new game title scheduled for release, and
as the strong momentum of "Trails in the Sky" [remake] seen in the fiscal year ended September 2026 settles down,
we expect both revenue and profit to decline — net sales of 3.0 billion yen, operating income of 1.5 billion yen, ordinary income of 1.6 billion yen, and net income of 1.0 billion yen.
Regarding our earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2027: with only one new game title scheduled for release, and
as the strong momentum of "Trails in the Sky" [remake] seen in the fiscal year ended September 2026 settles down,
we expect both revenue and profit to decline — net sales of 3.0 billion yen, operating income of 1.5 billion yen, ordinary income of 1.6 billion yen, and net income of 1.0 billion yen.
Even if Kai 2 launches day-and-date on Switch 2, it's not going to sell like Trails in the Sky did
since you'd have to keep up with the whole series first
In that sense too, next fiscal year is a bit of a crouching period.
since you'd have to keep up with the whole series first
In that sense too, next fiscal year is a bit of a crouching period.
Re: #20
First they need to actually put out Kai 1 already.
First they need to actually put out Kai 1 already.
Re: #20
If they want the newcomers who got into the series via the remake to care about the new game, sticking Estelle and Joshua into Kai 2 would probably get the new fans to jump on it too
Any sign they're actually going to show up? I gave up keeping track a while ago.
If they want the newcomers who got into the series via the remake to care about the new game, sticking Estelle and Joshua into Kai 2 would probably get the new fans to jump on it too
Any sign they're actually going to show up? I gave up keeping track a while ago.
Re: #1
Nintendo isn't on the list
Sony is
Nintendo isn't on the list
Sony is
Harada's recent comments have been getting attention
The reality is that the publishers complaining "something like an Xbox Series S getting in the way is a pain!" are the ones whose actual numbers aren't doing so well
In the end, the real mess right now is companies pouring tons of development budget into titles with no guarantee of selling, and taking on all that risk
Keeping development costs down while steadily locking in solid numbers is probably the real secret to success
Seriously, who's going to keep up with the specs race from here on out?
The reality is that the publishers complaining "something like an Xbox Series S getting in the way is a pain!" are the ones whose actual numbers aren't doing so well
In the end, the real mess right now is companies pouring tons of development budget into titles with no guarantee of selling, and taking on all that risk
Keeping development costs down while steadily locking in solid numbers is probably the real secret to success
Seriously, who's going to keep up with the specs race from here on out?
Re: #27
It's not just the cost — development time matters just as much
"We're making a game for the new hardware, by the way it'll take 5 years to develop" —
if that's how it goes, small and mid-size publishers are going to end up completely stuck.
It's not just the cost — development time matters just as much
"We're making a game for the new hardware, by the way it'll take 5 years to develop" —
if that's how it goes, small and mid-size publishers are going to end up completely stuck.
Re: #27
There's also talk that Saudi [Arabia]'s economy is cooling off too.
There's also talk that Saudi [Arabia]'s economy is cooling off too.
Re: #29
In the end, Shawn Layden — who used to be at PlayStation — was right:
"Instead of building some ridiculously expensive PS6, they should be offering a $300 PS5."
In the end, Shawn Layden — who used to be at PlayStation — was right:
"Instead of building some ridiculously expensive PS6, they should be offering a $300 PS5."
Re: #30
If memory prices hadn't spiked, they could've just made a mini PS6 using the small chip from a handheld PS6 — that would've been the answer.
If memory prices hadn't spiked, they could've just made a mini PS6 using the small chip from a handheld PS6 — that would've been the answer.
Why is everyone saying it "sold like crazy thanks to Switch"?
Re: #39
That's not quite it
Kondo (Falcom's president):
"Right now, in terms of new-user numbers, Switch and PC (Steam) make up a large share. If we want to keep going for the long haul, we need to properly put out titles there too and work on broadening our audience."
https://ascii.jp/elem/000/004/430/4430552/
Slotting in the "Trails in the Sky" remake was aimed at acquiring new users. "Kai no Kiseki" is PS-exclusive, but its user base shrinking has become obvious.
(The cause being that they limited the platform to PS)
https://twitter.com/michsuzu/status/2001560439508046122
The argument is that it shrank precisely because they made it exclusive
https://twitter.com/thejimwatkins
That's not quite it
Kondo (Falcom's president):
"Right now, in terms of new-user numbers, Switch and PC (Steam) make up a large share. If we want to keep going for the long haul, we need to properly put out titles there too and work on broadening our audience."
https://ascii.jp/elem/000/004/430/4430552/
Slotting in the "Trails in the Sky" remake was aimed at acquiring new users. "Kai no Kiseki" is PS-exclusive, but its user base shrinking has become obvious.
(The cause being that they limited the platform to PS)
https://twitter.com/michsuzu/status/2001560439508046122
The argument is that it shrank precisely because they made it exclusive
https://twitter.com/thejimwatkins
Wasn't Kai 1 a PS exclusive?
Is 2 going back to being exclusive too?
Is 2 going back to being exclusive too?
Re: #47
Overseas it's out on Switch 1/2
It came out earlier this year.
Overseas it's out on Switch 1/2
It came out earlier this year.
So the Japanese version still hasn't come out on Switch?
Well, they haven't even released Trails in the Sky 3 [remake] yet, so there's no way newcomers who got in through the Sky remake will reach all the way to Kai 2 anyway — so it's fine for Kai 2 to launch exclusive at first too.
Well, they haven't even released Trails in the Sky 3 [remake] yet, so there's no way newcomers who got in through the Sky remake will reach all the way to Kai 2 anyway — so it's fine for Kai 2 to launch exclusive at first too.
Re: #51
There's zero point in making it exclusive, so they'll just put it out normally on Switch 2, PS5, and Steam
If anything, going PS5-exclusive again at this point might actually sink Falcom.
There's zero point in making it exclusive, so they'll just put it out normally on Switch 2, PS5, and Steam
If anything, going PS5-exclusive again at this point might actually sink Falcom.
Re: #51
Wasn't the overseas Switch port handled by NIS America (Nihon Ichi's overseas arm)?
Falcom's never released a third-party port of their own game domestically in Japan, have they?
Wasn't the overseas Switch port handled by NIS America (Nihon Ichi's overseas arm)?
Falcom's never released a third-party port of their own game domestically in Japan, have they?
Re: #43
That's unrelated —
they've been licensing ports out to other companies from the start anyway.
That's unrelated —
they've been licensing ports out to other companies from the start anyway.
Re: #52
How can you say it's "unrelated" when the president himself is the one saying it, lol
Making up your own private reality isn't allowed when we're talking about actual industry news.
How can you say it's "unrelated" when the president himself is the one saying it, lol
Making up your own private reality isn't allowed when we're talking about actual industry news.
If they'd dropped the endlessly, pointlessly connected Trails continuity and gone with self-contained, one-off stories instead, they probably could've filled the gap left by all the JRPGs that self-destructed chasing "big-budget" ambitions — and made even more money.
Re: #54
There really aren't many anime-style console JRPGs like this left
Tales [of] basically vanished, and Dragon Quest barely gets new entries at all.
There really aren't many anime-style console JRPGs like this left
Tales [of] basically vanished, and Dragon Quest barely gets new entries at all.
They make games with their own cash, so they never run a deficit.
Which means they can't — and won't — make expensive games.
Unlike the typical company that borrows money to fund development,
putting the company's survival first was the previous president's whole philosophy.
As an entertainment company, though, I'd say that makes them kind of boring.
Which means they can't — and won't — make expensive games.
Unlike the typical company that borrows money to fund development,
putting the company's survival first was the previous president's whole philosophy.
As an entertainment company, though, I'd say that makes them kind of boring.
Re: #63
There's no way they'd go under —
they've been profitable since founding and openly boast they could keep running for 10 years even with zero profit.
There's no way they'd go under —
they've been profitable since founding and openly boast they could keep running for 10 years even with zero profit.
Re: #65
Nobody said they'd go under
The point is the user base was clearly shrinking, and once they released on Switch and Steam, new users increased —
so the exclusivity had been pointless all along.
Nobody said they'd go under
The point is the user base was clearly shrinking, and once they released on Switch and Steam, new users increased —
so the exclusivity had been pointless all along.
Re: #65
Talk like that and you'll end up like Macbeth — that kind of overconfidence has a way of pulling the rug out from under you.
Talk like that and you'll end up like Macbeth — that kind of overconfidence has a way of pulling the rug out from under you.
This publisher hasn't really put up big numbers, yet threads about them keep popping up all the time.
Re: #72
Probably because just surviving this long is impressive enough on its own.
Probably because just surviving this long is impressive enough on its own.
Back when they were focused on PS, they only hit double-digit-billion-yen profit once.
Since entering Switch in 2018, they've been hitting that level of profit every single year — an absolute boom.
Since entering Switch in 2018, they've been hitting that level of profit every single year — an absolute boom.
Re: #81
That's unrelated — they're just releasing bundled overseas PS versions years late
It's simply the sales channel expanding, nothing more.
That's unrelated — they're just releasing bundled overseas PS versions years late
It's simply the sales channel expanding, nothing more.
No matter how you look at it, these are games that run fine even on low specs, so why were they sticking to just the console-only lineup ("PSW" — 5ch shorthand for PlayStation/Wii-type platforms) instead of putting it on PC too?
Re: #83
Because they were using a Sony-made game engine.
Because they were using a Sony-made game engine.
I wonder what the ports will be.
Legend of Heroes I & II, Legend of Xanadu I & II, and Ys up through… was it IV? Or III? — those are already confirmed for release via ediA…
Maybe they'll also do a console version of VII?
Personally, I'd love a remaster of the Gagharv trilogy.
Legend of Heroes I & II, Legend of Xanadu I & II, and Ys up through… was it IV? Or III? — those are already confirmed for release via ediA…
Maybe they'll also do a console version of VII?
Personally, I'd love a remaster of the Gagharv trilogy.
Re: #86
The White Witch had its license picked up by an overseas publisher, so there won't be a Falcom remake of it.
The White Witch had its license picked up by an overseas publisher, so there won't be a Falcom remake of it.
Re: #55
They switched to their own proprietary engine starting with "Trails through Daybreak," and the graphics and motion improved so dramatically that the old engine turns out to have been nothing but a limitation, lol
The Craft animations in the Sky remake don't look inferior to other games anymore either.
They switched to their own proprietary engine starting with "Trails through Daybreak," and the graphics and motion improved so dramatically that the old engine turns out to have been nothing but a limitation, lol
The Craft animations in the Sky remake don't look inferior to other games anymore either.
Re: #88
Falcom these days puts so much effort into their event movies that it makes you wonder what those cutscenes everyone used to laugh at on the old engine were even about…
Falcom these days puts so much effort into their event movies that it makes you wonder what those cutscenes everyone used to laugh at on the old engine were even about…
Re: #91
The ending of the Sky remake's 1st chapter, and the end of chapter 6 in the 2nd — I cried at both
Really made me feel how far Falcom has come.
The ending of the Sky remake's 1st chapter, and the end of chapter 6 in the 2nd — I cried at both
Really made me feel how far Falcom has come.
Re: #91
Maybe they've clawed back about 10% of the glory days from the '80s, back when they were making cutting-edge opening movies… maybe.
Maybe they've clawed back about 10% of the glory days from the '80s, back when they were making cutting-edge opening movies… maybe.
Re: #90
That's a weak excuse, lol
They actually entered Steam in 2017, a full year before Switch
Sales there did grow, but never reached double-digit billions
And Steam was such a weak market for them that Falcom officially announced "Sky 1st had the lowest sales of any platform" there.
That's a weak excuse, lol
They actually entered Steam in 2017, a full year before Switch
Sales there did grow, but never reached double-digit billions
And Steam was such a weak market for them that Falcom officially announced "Sky 1st had the lowest sales of any platform" there.
Background and key points of this discussion
Nihon Falcom has long followed a policy of self-funding development rather than relying on borrowed money, and that history is the backdrop for thread comments like “profitable since founding” and “could keep going 10 years without profit.” At the same time, the fact that earnings lean heavily on a handful of titles — like the “Trails in the Sky” remake — is also a structural weakness, as shown by the steep profit-decline forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2027: with so few new releases, earnings swing hard year to year. Where the thread split was over whether the rise in new users from entering Switch and Steam means the “Kai no Kiseki” series’ PS-exclusive strategy failed, or whether it’s merely an apparent effect of expanded sales channels and release timing. The thread also cited president Kondo’s own remarks about gaining new users on Switch and PC, making this a case where opinions diverge not just on whether the earnings numbers look good or bad, but on how to judge the platform strategy itself.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry (Geha)) thread “Nihon Falcom Achieves 45 Consecutive Years of Profit”.
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