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The story
An image predicting the lineup for this year’s Kohaku Uta Gassen was posted on 5ch’s Hello! Project board, sparking a heated debate. With the prediction packed with numerous female idol groups, commenters pointed out that “the idol slot is usually only 6-7 acts a year, and that includes K-pop groups,” criticizing it as wishful thinking that ignored the realistic number of available spots. Meanwhile, some expressed hope that Juice=Juice would make the cut, others questioned the credibility of having YOASOBI and Lilas Ikuta appear simultaneously, and users traded notes on groups’ past Kohaku appearance records.
What people said
Redo it.
good chance they're even the opening act.
There are a whopping 9 girl idol groups in here
Total amateur-hour prediction lol
Back when Morning Musume. was on, the members 18 and older stuck around all the way to the end.
Something about this prediction's credibility feels off…
I think they turned it down during their peak popularity, right?
• 28th Kohaku (1977): First appearance (song: "Wanted")
• 40th Kohaku (1989): Appeared in a Showa-era Kohaku retrospective segment, etc.
No clue where you dug this up from,
but it even gets the number of appearances wrong. Way too sloppy.
2-3 of those go to Korean acts
Any prediction that doesn't fit in that range is pointless.
Mr. B'z is performing at Count Down Japan (a year-end festival held the same night as Kohaku), so he won't make it in time for rehearsals.
Therefore, Mr. B'z won't be on Kohaku.
Whose prediction even is this, lmaooooo
Out of all the predictions floating around out there,
I like the care taken here
going with Lilas Ikuta instead of YOASOBI, properly factoring in the tattoo taboo (NHK's unofficial ban on visibly tattooed performers).
Wait, hold on, YOASOBI's in there too
Rejected.
Something's off, right?
Even someone like me who knows nothing about Kohaku could tell there were way too many idols in this.
For a second I thought that was last year, but wait, that was this February, wasn't it?
The veteran predictor who does this every year
Perfect track record so far
Last year, 21 acts appeared in the regular Kohaku lineup on each team.
ANGERME, Morning Musume, BEYOOOOONDS, Tsubaki Factory
they'd all get to keep chasing their dreams.
Ocha Norma too, of course.
It all comes down to the songs.
Without that breakout hit (fans' nickname for one of their songs), Juice=Juice would've had nothing.
They need to power up their songwriting team.
Background and key points of this discussion
NHK’s Kohaku Uta Gassen is the flagship year-end broadcast, and its performers are chosen to fit within limited “slots” for each genre. The female idol slot is typically around 6-7 acts a year, and since K-pop acts are counted within that same slot, not every domestic idol group can realistically appear. What divided opinion in the thread was whether the prediction had taken this slot constraint into account at all. Because the original prediction image included a large number of idol groups, many commenters called it “wishful thinking that doesn’t understand how the slots work,” while others expressed hope that specific groups like Juice=Juice would get in. Note that the actual Kohaku lineup is officially announced by NHK every year between late November and December, so at the time of this thread it was nothing more than an unofficial prediction by anonymous users. Commenters also pointed to past instances where predictions missed the mark, such as a forecast for =LOVE, underscoring how unreliable these predictions tend to be from year to year.
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Hello! Project board) thread “Final Kohaku Uta Gassen Lineup Predictions Are Here Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.”
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