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The story
On September 25, UBS downgraded Nintendo (7974) from “Neutral” to “Sell” and cut its target price from ¥7,800 to ¥5,500. Reactions were split on the hardware/industry (Geha) board — some welcomed the drop, saying “I’m buying, so knock it down to ¥5,000,” while others voiced concern over slowing Switch 2 sales and how things have looked since September’s price hike. Discussion also turned to the Zelda remake’s release timing and the console price staying unchanged, with opinions divided on how to read the reasoning behind the downgrade.
Nintendo <7974> UBS Neutral → Sell ¥7,800 → ¥5,500 9/25
Source: finance.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here
What people said
Honestly the only fix at this point is to wind it down early and put out new hardware.
It's not an era where you can just drag things out by releasing new hardware anymore
they probably know something
I'll pass on that one, though.
There's no way it drops that fast.
Are you even paying attention here? (エアプ, lit. "air-play" — 5ch slang for talking like you have experience you don't)
Wonder what's happened with September's numbers.
Can't wait to see, honestly.
The Zelda-remake-edition console is priced about the same as before, so that seems unlikely.
Still, next year's probably going to be rough.
It's doing fine thanks to the Ocarina of Time effect, so September's fine too.
Nintendo Switch 2 System
30K+ bought in past month
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F3GWXLTS/
Wonder how Europe's doing, though
Normally Zelda would launch on Nintendo Day, November 21, but it's been unnaturally moved up, and the hardware's coming out even earlier than that — so December's sitting oddly empty, which bugs me.
Zelda's November 5 date is just avoiding GTA.
There's no Nintendo software in December because overseas, the holiday shopping season kicks off in November.
Does the US even count as "overseas"?
Nintendo Switch 2 System
30K+ bought in past month
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F3GWXLTS/
How much is that actually selling, though? That's just Amazon numbers (尼, forum shorthand for "Amazon").
If that's "past month," isn't that just last-minute buying before the price hike?
I can't really tell if that number's big or small,
but what I actually want to know is sales since the hike.
If that's how you feel, you'd be better off just shorting it
¥5,000 lol — that's literally lower than Nintendo's, lmao (草, forum laugh-slang)
biggest sales collapse in console history.
Selling over 20 million in year one and then crashing that hard,
turning into a failed console — who could've called that?
If they applied, they'd get approved without breaking a sweat
People say this a lot, but if you want to survive in game-sector stocks with this much uncertainty, buying outright is really the only way to go.
Even with a stock you're sure will drop, shorting just shortens your lifespan.
Then don't go around casually saying you'll "buy" it
? Not really following.
If Nintendo stock drops I'm in real trouble with bigger losses, but I get the logic of wanting it to drop because you want to buy in cheap.
If you know it's dropping soon, just short it too — that makes it a hedge.
Then once it hits 5,000, flip around and buy.
Averaging down, lol (ナンピン). At some point you should just cut your losses and let it go.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
A brokerage’s “investment rating” comes paired with a target price — a downgrade is an analysis predicting a future decline in share price, not a statement that business performance has changed immediately. Some posts in the thread judged company size purely by share price, but comparing corporate value properly means looking at market capitalization — share price multiplied by shares outstanding — a distinction that’s easy to miss versus simple share price levels. On Switch 2 sales trends, last-minute demand ahead of September’s price hike and the real post-hike pace are easily conflated, and the thread itself raised exactly that: “I want to know sales since the price hike.” The original article doesn’t spell out the specific basis for the downgrade, and until actual sales trends show up in upcoming quarterly earnings, there’s limited material to judge whether the downgrade is justified.
*This article is compiled as an excerpt/summary from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry (Geha)) board thread “Nintendo Stock Downgrade ¥7,800→¥5,500.”
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