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The story
Mark Spitznagel, founder of U.S.-based Universa Investments and known as a “Black Swan” investor, has predicted that a historic crash will hit after the AI boom runs even further. His fund reportedly keeps buying put options, taking small losses in normal times in order to aim for massive gains when a crash hits. In the thread, commenters debated whether trying to predict the trigger or timing of a crash contradicts the very definition of a “black swan,” while others argued that investors holding stocks through NISA (Japan’s tax-free investment program) have nothing to worry about as long as they don’t sell during a downturn. Stories from those who lived through the Lehman Shock also came up, with the conversation focused less on when a crash might hit than on how to react once it does.
Once again, the “biggest crash of a lifetime” will come after the AI boom peaks — “Black Swan” investor Spitznagel’s prediction (overseas report)
Mark Spitznagel, known as a “Black Swan” investor who aims to profit from major crashes, believes the AI boom will collapse after reaching its peak. As head of the hedge fund Universa Investments, he predicts that before the biggest crash of a lifetime arrives, there will first be an “euphoric surge.” Spitznagel described just how grueling it is to keep losing money almost every single day while waiting for a historic crash to arrive.
Mark Spitznagel warned that while the AI boom will likely continue for now, a historic crash lies in wait beyond it.
Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / Original article here
What people said
The BOJ will prop it up like always, right?
That's why it's a firm running a monthly put-buying strategy — losing money every month, but making a fortune when the crash hits.
The US-China-Russia triangle needs to destroy each other before anyone pulls that trigger.
If the BOJ keeps hiking rates aggressively,
the bubble will burst.
It halved temporarily, but I threw every last yen I had into US stocks, and it's quadrupled since then.
AI is still evolving as we speak.
Isn't the unemployment rate the thing we should actually be worried about?
If anything, stocks will become a scramble, and we'll end up in a world where only those who hold stock get to make a living.
As an industry, railroads peaked in the 20th century, but railroad stocks peaked in the 19th. Technological progress and stock prices aren't the same thing.
If that actually happens, 5ch is gonna be a party lol
To be precise, it's the weak-handed folks who cut their losses that die.
If you can just hold on, you'll be fine as long as the stock market itself doesn't collapse entirely — that's what long-term investing is all about.
NISA is cash/spot trading, so you just don't sell.
It's the margin traders, not the NISA crowd, who are actually going to get wiped out.
So we're finally looking at something bigger than Lehman?
Apparently even Warren Cromartie is cashing out his holdings to brace for the crash.
Cromartie → Buffett
If you look even further ahead, won't it pay for itself eventually?
We're heading into an era where dominating AI means dominating the world.
As long as people keep saying a crash is coming, it won't come.
Because buybacks show up to prop it up.
What's genuinely unsettling is when optimism becomes universal, almost sickeningly so.
Is it that moment when TV and social media are full of "shoeshine boys" giving stock tips? (a nod to the old Wall Street tale that a market top is near once even shoeshine boys are handing out stock advice)
And by then it'll already be too late — humanity will have no choice but to go extinct.
Yep, missed my chance to cash out.
The thing with Bitcoin is that what backs its value is just way too flimsy…
If you sell and run at a loss here, your assets are never going to grow.
History has proven that every past crash was actually a buying opportunity — a rock-bottom bargain sale.
When successful investors sell before a crash, it's also to build up cash reserves so they can buy more once prices drop…
while it might dip somewhat, I doubt it'll actually crash.
Lol, someone who's invested in AI stocks posting this while shaking in their boots
Won't the AI boom end up like the dot-com bubble?
Amazon crashed too, back then.
Looking back on it now, it was nothing.
That's just a tiny handful of companies making money off it — even cutting-edge AI researchers are saying this is realistically how it'll play out.
DeepSeek researcher pessimistic about AI's future: "It could take away jobs"
November 10, 2025
Chen Deli, a senior researcher at Chinese AI startup DeepSeek (WUZHEN AI), voiced a pessimistic outlook on AI's future impact on humanity at the World Internet Conference (WIC) held in Wuzhen, Zhejiang Province.
Everyone's competing to become one of that tiny handful of companies.
That's not remotely inconsistent with a pessimistic future waiting for the world.
That's true of basically anything, but it's a separate issue from a bubble bursting.
Even if a boom fades or a bubble bursts and the industry (or related industries) declines or gets thrown into chaos, that doesn't mean every company or researcher disappears — so technological progress itself won't stop.
Well, that particular pattern of decline hasn't really happened much throughout history, has it?
If they didn't, capitalism itself would be over.
In the end only a handful come out ahead, the rest are just exit liquidity lol
Actually this whole thing is theater staged to end capitalism…
The technocrats are gearing up for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, after all
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
Universa Investments, led by Spitznagel, is known for a strategy called “tail-risk hedging.” It involves paying a small premium every month to keep buying out-of-the-money put options (the right to sell), taking a loss nearly every single time in normal periods, but recouping it all — many times over — when a crash hits; the thread itself summed this up as “losing money every month, but making a fortune when the crash comes.” The term “black swan” itself originally comes from Nassim Taleb, describing an “unforeseeable, drastic upheaval” — which is exactly why commenters pointed out that “if you don’t know the timing or the cause, isn’t that the definition of a black swan?”, since “predicting” a historic crash arguably contradicts the concept’s original meaning. Meanwhile, NISA (the tax-free investment program used by most Japanese retail investors) is built around spot/cash trading, so there’s little risk of a forced loss-cut even in a crash, whereas investors trading on margin face risks like margin calls. That distinction is what split the thread’s reactions into “NISA investors will be fine” versus “the margin traders are the ones in danger.”
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (Breaking News+) thread “Once Again, the “Biggest Crash of a Lifetime” Will Come After the AI Boom Peaks — Says a Renowned “Black Swan” Investor.”
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