A Deutsche Bank report argues that Japan’s debt itself isn’t a real problem given the country’s massive net foreign assets, and that if the Bank of Japan raised rates at a pace comparable to other central banks, the yen would ultimately strengthen. The thread debated whether the government is deliberately keeping the yen weak and rates low to prop up exporters, what actually makes up Japan’s net foreign assets, and the risks facing homeowners with variable-rate mortgages.
Joint Japan-US yen-buying intervention would be “counterproductive”; without intervention the yen would be even stronger — Deutsche Bank
(…)
The report also stressed that Japan’s economy doesn’t have a debt problem, stating that “for a country with net foreign assets this large, much of which the government itself holds, debt isn’t the issue.” It added: “If the BOJ starts raising rates at the kind of pace typical central banks do, and the yen stops being a low-interest-rate currency, the yen will ultimately rise. In the end, the question is simply whether the government is willing to accept that outcome.”
Source: news.yahoo.co.jp / original article here
5Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:44:43.42ID:hw8dsnSs0
No. Isn't the real story that they're deliberately keeping rates low and steering the yen weak on purpose, for the sake of the economy and export industries?
189Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:18:42.13ID:zpzm3vyC0
>>5 Exactly. For Japan to make a real comeback, staying on the weak-yen path is still the way to go. Once we've built up enough national strength, then we can let the yen appreciate.
219Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:24:17.45ID:X8CoigCn0
>>189 I think around 140 yen [to the dollar] would be about right.
237Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:29:02.81ID:kjDHNmcS0
>>189 Trade deficit for the 3rd straight month — ¥634.5 billion in July. What exactly are you trying to achieve here?
8Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:45:24.49ID:xhE1YsJY0
Japan's accounting is just broken. We're being deliberately kept poor.
72Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:56:41.71ID:Mx+EO8k40
>>8 Japan being wealthy is a moral no-no, apparently.
11Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:46:03.02ID:/lYwsL+j0
That's something the BOJ's 'little old men' just can't grasp (a jab referencing the 'chiisai ojisan'/tiny-old-man urban-legend meme, implying BOJ officials are out of touch).
208Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:21:10.50ID:oOUJzPpm0
>>11-20
Germany's a rival to Japan in industrial exports — cars, submarines, machine tools, parts, you name it.
A weak yen puts Germany's export industry at a disadvantage lol
Of course Germany's going to say "make the yen stronger!" lol
.
12Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:46:17.41ID:XjRN5nnL0
Just try matching US interest rates for 3 months, see what happens.
Though… is this actually about the yen carry trade becoming a global problem?
117Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:05:16.79ID:TbFOcZxP0
>>12 If you knew the scale of 'Mrs. Watanabe's' yen carry trade (a nickname for Japan's army of retail FX traders), you wouldn't be talking so casually about this.
28Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:47:50.73ID:uq3wB/t90
Wasn't it mostly assets that can't just be sold off on a whim?
34Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:49:55.53ID:3ixP97BM0
>>28 Because it's mainly overseas assets held by private companies and individuals.
41Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:51:42.50ID:60MLsQ6E0
They keep saying they're suffering from the weak yen, so a stronger yen would fix that, wouldn't it? Plus it'd mean a weaker euro, which helps Germany's economy too — win-win.
46Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:52:32.51ID:acBOLnCZ0
>>41 What does Germany even sell these days!?
76Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:57:40.68ID:Mx+EO8k40
>>41 Japanese people tend to prefer lose-lose over win-win.
61Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 19:54:56.53ID:kphX1zFL0
What about mortgages though? There must be tons of people who bought with basically no down payment — they'd be wiped out lol
92Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:00:13.78ID:CQG/4bpt0
>>61 That's just gambling addicts who borrowed on variable rates losing their bet and going bust. Gambling's on you.
98Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:01:08.10ID:hBcKoUHq0
>>61 Those people chose variable rates knowing the risk going in. I went with fixed rate — glad I did.
143Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:10:35.31ID:+ZV7whR+0
If they could pull that off, they'd already be doing it. The second they tried, the economy would tank instantly — it's a non-starter.
152Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:12:14.32ID:+GqsGJHV0
>>143 They just need to cut the amount of government bonds issued. Tax revenue is up, so if they stop the handouts it should be doable.
157Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:13:12.80ID:5ftET4MO0
>>152 Dousing the economy in cold water on top of austerity? That'd finish it off. That's exactly what kicked off the Lost Decade(s).
164Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:14:09.57ID:Zilvp9FO0
>>157 That's beside the point, dummy.
174Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:15:31.96ID:+GqsGJHV0
>>157 They're not cutting spending, so it's not austerity. What's actually crazy is that the budget grows every single year no matter whether it's a boom or a bust.
158Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:13:13.14ID:4PaQ/hfc0
In the end, this is exactly what Takahashi Yoichi and others have been saying — the Ministry of Finance only ever talks about debt while treating receivables/claims as if they were basically zero. Even for a company's balance sheet, what matters is how much debt there is versus total assets including receivables — but the MOF stays silent on assets and claims. They just keep hammering the narrative into the public that debt is so huge that tax hikes are necessary.
181Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:17:15.98ID:IG9r70N60
>>158 Because the Ministry of Finance is too powerful, I'm betting there's no real rate hike coming — so I'm piling into weak-yen plays without hesitation.
192Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:19:38.99ID:ajdVWido0
>>158 External assets: roughly ¥1,805 trillion. External liabilities: roughly ¥1,243 trillion. The ¥560 trillion difference already puts Japan below Germany, in 3rd place. These reserves should be kept intact for fiscal stability anyway — there's no upside to folding them into the general account.
204Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:20:39.90ID:kjDHNmcS0
>>158 Takahashi Yoichi is only talking about the domestic picture. This thread is about forex. A balance sheet is a domestic concept, so Takahashi Yoichi just ignores the exchange-rate side of things.
216Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:23:15.64ID:hBcKoUHq0
Is China's job crunch actually real? Factories and farms seem so short on workers that they're bringing in large numbers of Black African migrants — feels more like Chinese workers have just gotten picky about jobs.
233Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:27:26.43ID:Zilvp9FO0
>>216 Every industry outside the state-designated ones is collapsing spectacularly, you know?
100 million Chinese factory workers are screaming: 15-hour shifts, or replaced by robots
https://youtu.be/RgHk8JWLOKI?si=0MsCkpvwwyCFFK3n
235Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:28:41.87ID:Z9MzmCwI0
>>216 Watch any travel YouTube footage and it's obvious right away. Even experts are picking up on the real situation from those videos. Since it's inconvenient footage for China, it'll probably get cracked down on eventually.
245Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:30:40.39ID:Zi7HJH5o0
>>216 It's true. In Tokyo's Bunkyo Ward, some elementary schools are now 20-30% ethnic Chinese. Plenty of Chinese families want their kids educated in Japan and employed in Japan. Back in China, even university grads end up working convenience stores or Uber Eats. Competition for big companies or civil service jobs is like thousands-to-one.
228Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:26:44.80ID:eYvUlzdC0
Then just hike rates already lolololol Why can't they, huh? lol
247Anonymous2026/08/21(金) 20:31:05.36ID:Z9MzmCwI0
>>228 Look at the Heisei bubble and it's obvious why.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (News Speed+) thread “Deutsche Bank: ‘Japan Holds Net Foreign Assets This Large — If It Raised Rates Like Other Countries, the Yen Would Strengthen’.”
Leave a Reply