Falcom Raises Earnings Forecast, 5ch: ‘The Logic Is So Airtight It’s Basically Harassment’

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The story

Nihon Falcom has revised its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2026 upward, with sales rising from ¥3.6 billion to ¥4.3 billion (up 19.4%) and operating profit climbing from ¥2.2 billion to ¥2.8 billion (up 27.2%). On 5ch’s hardware/industry (“geha”) board, a debate broke out over whether this strong performance was driven by the company — long a PlayStation exclusive — finally releasing the “Sora no Kiseki” (Trails in the Sky) remake simultaneously worldwide on Switch and Steam. Posters threw around a mix of theories: the effect of gaining new users on Nintendo hardware, the situation with Nippon Ichi Software, which had previously handled overseas releases, and the presence of the Chinese market via Steam.

FY ending September 2026 earnings forecast

Sales: ¥3.6B → ¥4.3B (up 19.4%)

Operating profit: ¥2.2B → ¥2.8B (up 27.2%)

Source: gamebiz.jp / Original article here

What people said

12AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:20
Re: #1
Thanks to Steam China, basically.
17AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:24
The big factor is they're putting out two new titles a year with simultaneous worldwide releases, Steam included.
20AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:26
Re: #17
So PlayStation alone just wasn't gonna cut it, huh.
19AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:25
Sounds like there was some major barrier holding back their growth…
22AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:26
Re: #19
The barrier was Nippon Ichi Software America.
28AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:31
ANGIN
Means 'wind' in Indonesian.
33AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:33
Re: #28
The guy ('shosi') who used to say that isn't around anymore though.
Different crew now.
29AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:32
Re: #22
Sounds like Nippon Ichi let a huge fish get away.
30AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:32
Re: #29
Realistically, Nippon Ichi's own business has seen falling profits.
41AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:42
Good thing they escaped that barrier, lol
42AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:43
Re: #41
What they escaped from was Nippon Ichi Software.
50AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:51
Re: #42
Nippon Ichi's doing fine too, with Honokurashi (a game title).
54AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:53
Re: #50
That one's not even on Falcom — the overseas versions Nippon Ichi used to handle took so long to make that they weren't turning into profit.
51AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:52
That's an insane jump.
Year over year:
Sales: ¥2.61B → ¥4.3B
Profit: ¥1.34B → ¥2.8B
56AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:56
Re: #51
For reference, back when they only released on PlayStation, hitting double-digit-billion-yen profit happened maybe once every few years. Since picking up momentum on Nintendo hardware, they've hit double digits every single year.
57AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:56
The Switch effect is only a minor piece of this — it's really the simultaneous-release effect doing the work. So this boom probably runs through Kiseki 3rd and then levels off, for now at least.
59AnonymousOct 7, 2026 17:59
Re: #57
Why'd they stick to a PlayStation-only policy for so long…
Seriously, why.
62AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:00
Re: #59
They only had 40 employees, so all they could manage was the domestic PS version.
71AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:12
Re: #59
Back then basically nobody did simultaneous cross-platform releases anyway. That became doable once Switch came along, but by then the Kiseki series had moved so far along that going multi-platform felt pointless at that point.
64AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:01
Re: #57
It's way more than 'minor.' 45% of the hardware Sora no Kiseki 1st players use is Nintendo hardware. And yeah, we know Steam's dead last and barely selling.
65AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:03
Re: #64
If you mean this, the total's over 100%, so Switch and Switch 2 are probably double-counted.
70AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:10
So thanks to China, Switch fans ('pigs') and Nintendo have nothing to do with the growth.
72AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:13
Re: #70
According to Falcom's actual financial results, Western sales are roughly double Asia's, though.
84AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:32
Kondo (Falcom president):

Right now, in terms of new-user numbers, Switch and PC (Steam) are where most of it's coming from.

If we want this to keep going long-term, we need to properly put out titles on those platforms too and really work on building awareness there.

https://ascii.jp/elem/000/004/430/4430552/

The reason they slotted in the Sora no Kiseki remake was to bring in new users. Kai no Kiseki is PS-exclusive, but its user base is clearly shrinking.

(The cause was limiting the platform to PS)

https://twitter.com/michsuzu/status/2001560439508046122
https://twitter.com/thejimwatkins
88AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:34
Re: #84
So PS5's shrinking, and the Sora no Kiseki they put out on Switch/Steam to grab new users is selling great and driving this boom, which means…

Oh…
90AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:35
Re: #84
Funny how the results show up the second they put some distance from PS5. ('shugoi' — a mocking, cutesy spelling of 'amazing')
116AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:54
Re: #84
Of course sales go up when you go multiplatform. Look at Monster Hunter Rise.
94AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:38
Sora no Kiseki was released on Switch and Steam to pick up new users because PS5 was shrinking

↓

That very Sora no Kiseki is booming, triggering an upward earnings revision ❤

↓

In other words, this proves PS5 was the shrinking 'barrier' hardware all along
95AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:39
Re: #94
This leaves zero room for rebuttal — it's basically logic harassment ('rojihara,' slang for an argument so airtight it feels like bullying) at this point… 😭
96AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:40
They said staff's around 70 right now, but they're aiming to grow to about 100.
98AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:41
Re: #96
Whether it's Nintendo or Falcom, they hire more people when business is good — Sony's the only one that cuts staff.
99AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:41
If they'd been doing this since the Switch 1 era, profits would probably already be double what they are now.
102AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:43
Re: #99
Back in the Switch 1 days, Nippon Ichi was overseas raking it in selling Falcom games, after all.
108AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:47
Honestly, at this point they might be better off just ending the Kiseki series completely and putting out something brand new.
113AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:51
Re: #108
Not so much 'end it' as — they should probably just wrap it up properly.
115AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:53
Didn't they stop releasing on PC because it kept getting pirated?
120AnonymousOct 7, 2026 18:56
Re: #115
Oh, PS5-kun…
124AnonymousOct 7, 2026 19:00
Me: 'Draw me a shrinking barrier.'

ChatGPT ('Chappy'): 'Coming right up!'

Background and Key Points of This Discussion

Nihon Falcom has long developed its “Kiseki” (Trails) series as a PlayStation exclusive, partly because back when the company had only around 40 employees, it had its hands full just making the domestic PS version. Starting around 2018, the company expanded onto Switch and Steam, and with the “Sora no Kiseki” (Trails in the Sky) remake in particular, it carried out a simultaneous worldwide multi-platform release. Opinions in the thread are split over whether the “Switch effect,” “Chinese demand via Steam,” or “the simultaneous worldwide release itself” is the main driver of the growth. Some posts cited financial reports and an interview with the company’s president, but the cause can’t be pinned on just one factor that easily. There are also comments about the relationship with Nippon Ichi Software, which used to handle overseas development, but these include speculation from some users and aren’t officially confirmed facts — worth keeping in mind. It’s also worth flagging that posts treating the move away from PS5 as “proof” of the turnaround are conflating correlation with causation.

※This article is compiled from excerpts and a summary of the 5ch (Hardware/Industry (“geha”)) thread “Falcom Upward Earnings Revision.”

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