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The story
In the Tokyo metro area’s new condominium market, the share of properties that developers rated as “selling well” has fallen to 29%, down 9 points from a year earlier, according to a survey by real estate advisory firm Total Brain. The firm says rising mortgage rates and soaring prices are making buyers more cautious. On 5channel, threads debated the reality behind “50-year joint mortgages” said to be available even to people in their 20s, how price surges in the 23 wards have spread to surrounding cities like Omiya, Urawa, and Ebina, and shifting patterns in bulk purchases by wealthy Chinese buyers.
Momentum in new condominium sales across the Tokyo metro area is slowing. Among new properties launched between November 2025 and June 2026, the share that real estate developers rated as “selling well” stood at 29%, down 9 points from the same period a year earlier, according to real estate advisory firm Total Brain (Minato, Tokyo). Buyers are growing more cautious amid rising mortgage rates and soaring prices.
Roughly 60 real estate developers across the Tokyo metro area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba) launched first-phase sales of 1…(remaining 1,445 characters available in the paid edition)
Nikkei MJ, September 6, 2026, 5:00 AM
Source: nikkei.com / Original article here
What people said
No way you can afford a new build in Tokyo on a 20-something's salary
That figure includes regional areas too
The 23 wards are rough
City center is impossible
The 50-year mortgage is a loan banks only extend to young elites — big-company employees in their 20s buying high-asset-value properties in Tokyo. Trolling about it like that just shows you don't know what you're talking about.
Though the media's partly to blame too for not reporting it accurately.
Don't take out a 50-year mortgage to buy a condo now.
Isn't it better to just buy a house in the suburbs now?
Soaring building material costs are making detached houses out of reach too
If this one doesn't sell, I bet the next call will be 'we've dropped the price, how about it?'
How much were you willing to pay?
Just tell them you'll buy if they knock 30% off
They'll say no on the spot,
but I read in some old article that if you're lucky they'll call back that same night, usually by the next day, saying it's a deal
There was already a cap on how much you could take out of China in the first place —
paying cash for a Tokyo condo was already sketchy
Heard lately it's buyers from countries other than China
A 50-year joint mortgage should make it doable, right?
Even with a joint mortgage at 8x annual income over 50 years, you still can't reach the price of a new condo in the 23 wards
120,000 yen a month × 2 people × 12 months × 50 years comes to about 140 million yen, so a property around 100 million should be doable. Though if rates rise, forget it…
In terms of yield, these new condos return less than 2% a year —
that's speculation, not investment
The difference between speculation and investment comes down to the risk premium left after subtracting the 3% government bond yield from the capital return rate
A condo running at -2% a year is speculative trading, no question about it
Guess even Omiya's pricey now.
Still wouldn't want to live there though
That's where you go a bit further east to Kasukabe
The distance from Kasukabe to Tokyo isn't much different from Omiya's
https://www.saitama-np.co.jp/upload/images/2025/03/14/006938/56c7c8c1c934a9090ff5f272ea6a1c61.jpg
Prices there have jumped hard
Omiya and Urawa are pricier than plenty of spots in Tokyo proper now
90% of Tokyo is more rural or less convenient than Omiya or Urawa
Even if Urawa's a nice area, I wouldn't want to commute into Tokyo from there
Price-wise, isn't Urawa about on par with Kitasenju?
I've heard of flippers walking away from their deposit when the post-purchase drop exceeds the deposit amount — that makes sense, it's rational. But apparently there are also actual homebuyers who forfeit their deposit just because they feel cheated after seeing a unit with the same layout listed cheaper later.
What are you even buying a house for at that point
Even with stocks, that kind of short-term trading carries risk
These guys really are just flippers lol
That's an awfully short fuse
A pro raises it right up to the edge of what people will still pay
They have to keep raising rent just to maintain the yield
When you calculate with the income capitalization method, the cap rate for residential is supposed to be around 5% a year,
so a used condo yielding under 5% is in bubble territory
They can't raise it that much though
Tenants just can't afford it
Urawa has stronger brand value as a long-established educational/cultural area
Though Kitasenju's been stepping up its game lately too
Price-wise they're probably about the same
…actually just looked it up, and Kitasenju's more expensive now
Over on the Kanagawa side, even Odakyu Line towns like Ebina and Honatsugi are seeing prices spike
240 million yen, lol
https://www.mansion-review.jp/shinchiku/city/761.html
#1 Leafia Tower Ebina Chronos Court — price range: 72 million to 240 million yen
#2 Rune Ebina Urban Arena — price range: 46 million to 86 million yen
#3 Branchierre Ebina — price: 87.88 million yen
Ebina's going for prices like that?
That place is total countryside — this is crazy
France
By next year or the year after, Tokyo street corners will probably look like this too
Well, rich people's money roams the globe hunting for returns, so there's no reason Japan would be the one exception
If you won't get kicked out, just pitch a tent in Yoyogi Park and live there
That'd make you a winner
Feels like joint mortgages are going to cause more murders — couples whose marriage sours but who can't divorce because of the loan
If I'd been there I'd have schooled them: rent is sticky, so during inflation you're better off renting, lol
As long as it sells, they don't care about anything else.
Other people's lives are none of their business.
When we were buying, it was the same thing day after day — 'With your income, you could easily afford this condo!'
Background and Key Points
This survey was compiled by Nikkei MJ, the distribution-focused trade paper of the Nikkei Group, covering first-phase sales of new condominiums launched by roughly 60 developers across Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba. It’s easy to misread the “selling well” rating — it’s a relative assessment based on developers’ own self-reporting, not a sign that prices themselves have fallen. The “50-year joint mortgage” that came up in the thread is, in reality, a product offered conditionally to people like large-company employees, not something the young generation at large can freely take out, as some commenters pointed out. Meanwhile, the decline in bulk purchases by wealthy Chinese buyers is said to stem from tighter capital controls in China, with some seeing investors from other countries stepping in to fill the gap. The way price increases have spread to suburban cities in Saitama and Kanagawa appears to reflect a combination of supply constraints in central Tokyo and investment capital that flowed in during the low-interest-rate era.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5channel (Breaking News Plus) thread “New Condo Sales Slow Even in Tokyo’s 23 Wards as Rising Rates and Soaring Prices Weigh.”
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