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The story
Since Morning Musume launched Hello! Project in 1997, the agency has rolled out a new group roughly every three years: ANGERME (2009), Juice=Juice (2013), Tsubaki Factory (2015), BEYOOOOONDS (2018), OCHA NORMA (2021), and Rosy Chronicle (2024). Applying that cycle literally would put the next new group’s debut in 2027, but a thread lit up with speculation that a new group centered on Suzuki Kotomi could actually launch next year instead. On the other hand, since 2024’s Rosy Chronicle still hasn’t reached national hall tours or big venues, there’s a persistent cautious camp arguing that shoring up existing groups should come before forming a new one — leaving opinion split on which direction to take.
What people said
Morning Musume 1997
ANGERME 2009
Juice=Juice 2013
Tsubaki Factory 2015
BEYOOOOONDS 2018
OCHA NORMA 2021
Rosy Chronicle 2024
New group 2027
New groups form every 3 years,
so a new group next year is basically confirmed
If they add any more groups, I'm genuinely going to lose it 😡
It's basically a holding pen for trainees they have no use for but can't just fire.
Most of them are juggling it with university anyway, and it'll be gone in three years.
Younger members like Uemura and Soma could transfer out if they put up results before then.
That was already done with College Cosmos.
Morning Musume and ANGERME barely make money and can't funnel funds back down the chain either — so are those not run for business reasons too?
But wouldn't it be better to just put Suzuki Kotomi into an existing group instead?
Country Girls → Rosy Chronicle
Those two groups only happened because they shifted over existing personnel and management resources.
If they make a genuinely new group, it'll be the first time working with brand-new resources since BEYOOOOONDS nine years ago,
so that would be a pretty big gamble for the agency too.
Those two groups were the biggest draws, so plenty has already flowed back down over the years.
Do you really think Rosy Chronicle can pull off a national hall tour and Yokohama Arena?
So you're saying it's not happening right now.
Then let's just disband Morning Musume and use those resources to pave Rosy Chronicle's road to Budokan.
the group he's currently looking after has a really good vibe going.
But Hello! Project fans themselves are running low on both life resources and money resources,
so the fanbase just keeps shrinking.
Background and Key Points of This Discussion
Aside from Morning Musume, Hello! Project has never officially stated a fixed cycle for forming new groups — the “3-year cycle theory” floated in the thread is simply a fan-made rule of thumb derived by working backward from past debut years. In practice, many of these launches have been “refreshes” that inherited personnel and management resources from existing groups, as with Kobushi Factory → OCHA NORMA and Country Girls → Rosy Chronicle, and no group has been built from entirely new resources since BEYOOOOONDS nine years ago. What split the thread this time was a divide between those who take the cycle theory at face value and expect a new lineup next year, and those who point to Rosy Chronicle’s current struggles to draw crowds at larger venues and argue that developing existing groups should take priority over forming a new one. Neither side is working from any official announcement, and it’s worth keeping in mind that this remains fan speculation.
*This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Hello! Project) thread “What direction should the group forming next year, centered on Suzuki Kotomi, take?“
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