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The story
A report posted to the “Hardware/Industry” board (nicknamed “Geha,” short for ゲームハード/game hardware — one of 5ch’s most contentious console-war boards) on 5ch, Japan’s largest anonymous forum, noted that the Switch 2 version of The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time — one of Nintendo’s big year-end holiday releases — has racked up around 20,000 Amazon.jp preorders combined across the standard and limited editions (with the standard edition alone at 10,000 as of October 10; “尼,” literally “nun,” is 5ch slang for Amazon, based on a shared kanji reading). Posters compared those numbers against preorders and actual sales for other titles launching around the same time, like GTA6 and Marvel’s Wolverine, and the thread split over how to read the game’s likely opening and lifetime sales given the 3DS version’s track record (160,000 in its first week, 640,000 lifetime).
Translator’s note: Posters on this board default to the username “名無しさん必死だな” (“Anonymous, getting awfully worked up”) — a long-running in-joke handle specific to this board — rendered below simply as “Anonymous.”
What people said
Can we really count on this as one of our few big releases?
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time -Switch2 [Early-purchase bonus for the physical edition] includes original art card set/original stickers
Huh?
You sure you want to act tough about this?
It's just a remake, after all.
Once the sales numbers are out, going quiet will be about all you can do.
There was a point where it had hit 10,000 units, so
I guess that means it hasn't grown much lately.
And yet you're losing to that 'just a remake.'
It hasn't even come out yet — what exactly are you fighting?
It won't sell that much.
Going by Amazon, it looks more like around 100k.
A game so bad it loses to the Amazon-only preorder count of a plain remake is just on a different level, honestly.
Don't dodge the fact that you're losing on preorders.
Losing on preorders? Source?
How many preorders does the digital version have?
There goes the 'barrier' crowd spinning the narrative again ["障壁" — board slang for anti-Nintendo posters].
Preorders spike most in the week after a Direct, and that was September 8.
Starting this thread a full month after that window has passed, huh…
Probably timed on purpose.
I checked on 10/10 and the standard edition was at 10,000 units, though?
I preordered through Rakuten instead.
If you preorder early enough it arrives on release day.
No idea about rural areas, though.
Going by the PS Store, the digital version of GTA isn't selling well, though.
Just looking at the rankings doesn't really tell you how much it's actually selling, does it?
'Poko a Pokémon' (standard edition only; title as referenced on the board — likely shorthand for a recent Pokémon release)
Passed 20,000: 3 days before release
Passed 30,000: 1 day before release
Passed 40,000: 1 day after release
Passed 50,000: 2 days after release
Passed 60,000: 3 days after release
First-week sales: 541,371
Rhythm Heaven: Miracle Stars (standard edition only)
Passed 20,000: 5 days before release
Passed 30,000: 1 day before release
Passed 40,000: 1 day after release
Passed 50,000: 2 days after release
Passed 60,000: 4 days after release
First-week sales: 393,378
Going by this, clearing 20,000+ more than two weeks out would mean an extremely fast preorder pace.
Though I guess the multiplier differs anyway, since Zelda's audience isn't the same as those two.
True, the multiplier could go down for that reason, but there are factors that could push it up too:
– There's a limited-edition console bundle that gets tallied separately
– The digital version is cheaper (download codes are counted in Famitsu's tally [Japan's main games-sales tracking publication], but pure digital-only purchases aren't — so if digital proves more popular, the multiplier based on package-only Amazon numbers would actually rise)
That one pulled hardware sales up quite a bit.
Anyone preordering now has probably already locked in either the limited-edition console or the standard software edition, so
it's hard to predict how much pull it'll actually have.
The year-end shopping season is when a lot of Switch 2s end up in kids' hands.
Kids are more excited about already-released games than a Zelda remake, so
I don't think it'll have much effect.
The 'Poko a Pokémon' bundle was 50,000 yen, so
even the Zelda bundle is too expensive by comparison.
I think it'll pull some console sales, but
a slow-burn long tail seems unlikely.
That really needs volume, and I don't think this has it.
The install base [between Switch and Switch 2] is completely different.
At best it opens around 400k and lands around 600k lifetime.
Retailers will probably stock a million units and end up with a mediocre sell-through rate, like 'Raiders' [reference unclear — likely a specific past title known for weak sell-through].
The 3DS version did 160k in its first week and 640k lifetime.
If this one opens at 400k, it should clear a million lifetime without much trouble.
The Ocarina of Time remake is probably going to be a heavily front-loaded seller, like Fire Emblem or Xenoblade.
I don't think it'll be that extreme, but I don't think it'll have a long tail either. There's not much to compare it to, so it's hard to say by how much.
This is Japan we're talking about, right?
Even past its prime, it's still the legendary Ocarina of Time.
It's on a completely different level from the Link's Awakening remake or Echoes of Wisdom ["知恵かり," shorthand for 知恵のかりもの, Echoes of Wisdom].
Going by the preorder numbers, 500k+ in physical sales alone is well within reach.
while Japan is at about 30,000 in roughly a month (20,000 standard, 10,000 limited) — so US preorders are doing great.
https://itest.5ch.io/krsw/test/read.cgi/ghard/1789315450
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0HJ6F7L6T/
That's not right.
The US was already over 100,000 as of September 14.
It's showing 80,000 now, so the floor is 180,000.
And Japan's 30,000 figure is missing the first week since preorders opened — so the real number is higher than that.
Background and Points of Debate
Amazon’s preorder count is just one retailer’s figure — it excludes Rakuten, Yodobashi, and in-store preorders — so it doesn’t translate directly into first-week sales. As posters in the thread note, Famitsu’s sales tally (Japan’s primary games-sales tracking publication) covers physical copies and includes bundled download codes, but not pure digital-download sales, so the more a title leans on digital purchases, the further its tracked numbers can drift from actual demand. Comparisons to the preorder pace of past titles like the Pokémon and Rhythm Heaven games also can’t be applied one-to-one, given differences in audience and hardware install base. Where the thread split was over how much the newer, more casual audience that Breath of the Wild brought into the franchise will respond to this remake — and whether it’ll be a front-loaded seller or a slow, steady one — with some citing the 3DS version’s track record (160,000 in week one, 640,000 lifetime) to argue it could reach a million units, and others viewing the numbers so far as underwhelming for a year-end tentpole release.
*This article is compiled from excerpts and summaries of the 5ch (Hardware/Industry, “Geha”) thread “Zelda hits 20,000 Amazon preorders! Isn’t that kind of underwhelming for a year-end tentpole?“
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