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The story
On 5ch’s “Nanimo Jikkyou G” board (a general live-commentary forum), a thread blew up after an investor posted that they’d bought Kioxia stock at ¥19,600 a week earlier, only to watch it crash to ¥13,375, leaving them with a ¥3 million unrealized loss. Their margin maintenance ratio has fallen to 85%, with forced liquidation looming in six months — a real tightrope situation. The thread split between posters urging to buy more, arguing memory chips have entered a “supercycle” driven by surging AI demand, and others insisting it’s just a temporary bubble that should be cut loose. Commenters also brought up the mismatched timing of NAND and DRAM capital investment, and the old market saying “when housewives start buying, run” — opinions were sharply divided.
What people said
A PE ratio in the 4x range, and you call that a bubble? 🤔
That's just how memory stocks are
So you don't think the memory demand itself could just be a temporary bubble?
or it might not
Can we make it 3 months somehow, please 🥺
They're probably over on Yahoo Finance boards spewing abuse right now
Because I figure it'll go back up eventually
Yeah, good luck with that
Just average down (nanpin) and you'll profit 🥰
Don't need an apology
Give me my money back 🫵
Bought at ¥19,600 about a week ago
Now it's ¥13,375 😱
It's already that cheap?
That's insane lol
AI demand has pushed memory into a supercycle
Buying right as memory enters a cycle is a call only old hands can make from experience
Not exactly common knowledge, but that's been the trend lately
Right?
I'll just wait it out 🥹
Whatever happened to that guy
I never said anything like that
It had already shot up dozens of times over not long before, so I said it wouldn't be strange if it fell to 1/10 — and that it'd still be absurdly overpriced even then
I actually called the opposite, predicting ¥20,000 by year-end, but it doesn't look like it'll fall that far
Since it did a 3-for-1 split, it'd need to drop to just under ¥7,000 for me to actually be at a loss
Just buy back in afterward, no?
I went with the 6-month plan this time, but there's an unlimited-term option too
You can also go with standard indefinite-term margin
so just watch out for a margin call
I figured it wouldn't drop any further so I bought in pretty heavy
Maintenance ratio's around 85% right now
Even for someone normally conservative like me, this is scarily aggressive 😨
85% is dangerous
You'd want something more like 200%
It'll be back to ¥50,000 before the year's out, just black out and wait
When even people who never touch stocks start going 'Kioxia, Kioxia' — that's the danger sign
There was buzz around summer about high schoolers buying in
It crashed hard right after that
The shoeshine boy, huh (the old Wall Street omen: when even shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, the top is in)
which also means that, in theory, anyone could pour in the same capital investment and ramp up memory production too
Then go ahead and try it already
The fact that outside China it's still basically just Kioxia and SanDisk even now shows exactly why that's not so easy
NAND capex fell behind globally in the first place, which is exactly what drove Kioxia's surge
DRAM capex was a year ahead of that and it's still like this, so pouring in capital doesn't fix things quickly
Background and Key Points on This Topic
Kioxia is a major NAND flash memory maker that went public in 2024, and its stock has swung wildly on surging AI-server-driven demand. The PE ratio in the 4x range mentioned in the thread is often cited as a sign a stock is “cheap” and used to justify buying, while a high PBR signals that additional capital investment could expand production — making it a warning sign for oversupply risk as well. Margin trading carries a six-month forced settlement window, and if the maintenance ratio falls below a certain threshold as the price drops, additional collateral (a margin call) is required; the “85% maintenance ratio” mentioned in the thread is close to that threshold. Note that the ¥3 million unrealized loss is self-reported by the original poster and isn’t verified against an actual trading record. The point about NAND and DRAM capital investment timing being staggered is also worth keeping in mind as background for understanding the memory industry’s supply cycle.
※This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (“Nanimo Jikkyou G”) thread “I’m down ¥3 million on Kioxia stock and sobbing 😭“.
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