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The story
A predicted lineup for NHK’s Kohaku Uta Gassen (late-October version) was posted on 5ch’s Hello! Project board, and reactions poured in after Juice=Juice — long a fixture on these prediction lists — was missing from it. The thread filled up with comparisons citing each group’s monthly Spotify listener counts and 2026 attendance figures, with some pointing out that the group had been given a music-show slot by their agency but failed to deliver results, and others analyzing that they’d fallen behind groups that debuted during the COVID era. Some also speculated they might still slide into the slot left open by FRUITS ZIPPER’s hiatus, so opinions were split.
What people said
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As expected, looks like =LOVE and CUTIE STREET will be first-timers at Kohaku.
Major domestic female idol groups
Spotify monthly listeners
1502919 =LOVE
1045402 AKB48
1011446 CUTIE STREET
899242 FRUITS ZIPPER
666788 Nogizaka46
645732 CANDY TUNE
655409 NiziU
552164 iLiFE!
534249 Momoiro Clover Z
443019 Phantom Theta
423214 Morning Musume.
383003 Cho Tokimeki♡ Sendenbu
352710 ME:I
309975 ≠ME
303592 Juice=Juice
If Juice=Juice got a slot with numbers that low, the other idols would have every right to be mad.
Their agency has a lot of pull.
It's so pathetic it's actually making me sad.
It's embarrassing, honestly.
They couldn't even beat Angerme in sales or attendance.
Their streaming numbers and social media engagement are even lower than 'Vanilla's.
I couldn't help but laugh.
Around the post-COVID period, a wave of idol groups debuted and the whole idol industry picked up steam.
The groups that were queued up behind them still haven't made it to Kohaku (like CUTIE STREET and =LOVE).
And honestly, I wonder if NiziU losing their spot just means they were only ever favored because of COVID-era conditions.
Ah, so that's it.
That explains why Angerme and Morning Musume keep coming up as candidates.
Their names actually show up in Kohaku predictions a lot.
They really lost momentum hard with 'Kurakura'…
'Kurakura' got less than half the views that 'Vanilla' did.
Even granting that it wasn't a single, that's just not a good look.
Enough with that already. ("Juice" is a nickname for Juice=Juice)
Juice still thinks they're the best-selling group in Hello! Project lol
Even though their tour venues are half-empty.
Juice is done with TV at this point, honestly.
From here on, the agency's music-show slots will go by the actual pecking order — Morning Musume and Angerme.
Maybe Juice should focus on climbing even one spot in the in-house pecking order first.
If anything, they're getting overtaken by Beyooooonds, Ocha Norma, and Tsubaki Factory.
They just didn't sell as well as expected.
The other idols were simply too strong.
They could just slide into that one.
Unlike Juice=Juice, they're actually popular.
Since Tsukiashi announced she's working hard so the member on hiatus can come back, it's turned into a heartwarming story — and that looks like it'll give FRUITS ZIPPER a boost.
It ended up being pure waste.
If they'd allocated it by actual pecking order, that group might have actually sold.
Feel bad for Angerme and Morning Musume.
If they'd gotten on Music Station or CDTV, there's a real chance they could've gone viral.
Cho Tokimeki♡ Sendenbu has a bunch of viral hits though.
Nogizaka46 2026 attendance → 500,000
NiziU 2026 attendance → 240,000
=LOVE 2026 attendance → 220,000
FRUITS ZIPPER 2026 attendance → 200,000
CUTIE STREET 2026 attendance → 180,000
AKB48 2026 attendance → 170,000
Morning Musume. 2026 attendance → 150,000
Juice=Juice 2026 attendance → 100,000 ←←←←← this one
Angerme 2026 attendance → 90,000
Momoiro Clover Z 2026 attendance → 80,000
CANDY TUNE 2026 attendance → 60,000
Ocha Norma 2026 attendance → 30,000
Wait, really?
They got handed all those big venues and that's all they could pull?
So in terms of actual drawing power they're below Angerme.
Guess that's why Morning Musume and Angerme have a better shot at Kohaku.
So they can't even get in through a special slot?
A special slot is a tough ask when you're this unknown.
FRUITS ZIPPER
CANDY TUNE
Nogizaka46
AKB48
2026 idol lineup
FRUITS ZIPPER
CUTIE STREET
Nogizaka46
=LOVE
Juice is below all of these, so it's an uphill battle.
AKB48 looks likely to keep their Kohaku spot thanks to the buzz around "Itomo" (a member's nickname).
Background and Key Points
It’s worth noting that NHK’s Kohaku “predicted lineup” isn’t an official announcement — it’s speculation by fans and watchers based on numbers like streaming counts and attendance figures. Juice=Juice is a mid-tier Hello! Project group, and the attendance and Spotify listener figures cited in the thread are all tallies circulating on 5ch, with no way to confirm whether the calculation methods or time periods are consistent. The debate split into two camps on the cause of the slump — one blaming the agency’s poor allocation of promotional slots, the other framing it as a generational shift toward newer groups that debuted during the pandemic — though neither goes beyond speculation. Raw numbers alone don’t determine Kohaku eligibility either; groups with smaller attendance figures have made the show before, so the thread’s comparison tables shouldn’t be mistaken for established fact.
※This article was composed by excerpting and summarizing the 5ch (Hello! Project board) thread “Juice=Juice Apparently Just Got Dropped From the Kohaku Predicted Lineup…“
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