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The story
The 2026 rice harvest has begun hitting shelves in earnest, with wholesale trading prices among rice distributors running 50% below where last year’s 2025 crop started out. Retail prices could fall as low as the upper ¥2,000 range for a 5kg bag, and with this year’s harvest at record levels, expectations are strong that prices will keep sliding. On 5ch, posters shared a string of photos showing Koshihikari and Akitakomachi rice selling for as little as ¥1,399 or ¥1,699 at local supermarkets, with many welcoming the price drop. Others pushed back, noting that prices were even lower before the spike two years ago, or that rice “is still expensive” — leaving the thread split on just how big a deal this drop really is.
Distribution of the 2026 rice crop has begun in earnest. Wholesale trading prices among rice distributors are running 50% below where the 2025 crop stood at the start of its distribution season, putting retail prices within sight of the upper ¥2,000 range for a 5kg bag. With a record surplus on hand, expectations of further declines remain strong — but if prices keep falling, it risks undermining the sustainability of Japan’s rice production base.
According to spot wholesale prices that Nikkei regularly gathers from market participants, benchmark Niigata-grown Koshihikari stood at ¥18,250 per 60kg of unmilled rice as of the 5th…(continues in the paid edition, 1,063 characters remaining)
Nikkei, October 8, 2026, 11:00 AM
Source: nikkei.com / Original article here
What people said
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My family buys direct from a farmer, but it's not something just anyone can do — it's very location-dependent.
Plus you have to build and maintain the relationship, and when the harvest is bad or something happens — or conversely when market prices get too low — it's on us to help the farmer out in return. It's not all upside.
Blame Trump — the weak yen is making American rice more expensive. Bring the dollar back down to ¥80 already.
For 10kg, it's about ¥4,000 for new rice, ¥3,300 for old rice.
Rice doesn't officially become "old rice" (koime) until November
Going forward, I think ¥2,500 for cheap rice and ¥3,500 for brand-name rice would be just about right.
The price spike happened two years ago
Before that, local new-crop Koshihikari was ¥1,500
But some stores are dumb enough to still be sitting on ¥3,000-range stock from bad buying decisions
Do they think expensive automatically reads as "good rice" to customers? lol
For the record, that's Koshihikari
Same here, bought from a relative last week.
30kg of unmilled rice for ¥12,000.
It's Uonuma Koshihikari, by the way (a premium Koshihikari-growing region in Niigata)
Because they jacked prices up to such ridiculous levels, young people who started living alone in April didn't even bother buying a rice cooker, and more people switched to a rice-free lifestyle
They realized bread or noodles are way cheaper than cooking rice, and faster to eat too
Unforgivable.
Over here they're advertising bentos with "60g more rice!" lol
That's not an increase, that's just putting back what they cut earlier — had me fuming for a good while
Even a 5kg bag, I can't finish it in a month
If you store it in Daiso's food-grade vacuum storage bags, it barely degrades even at room temperature (Daiso is a Japanese discount variety-store chain)
https://jpbulk.daisonet.com/products/4550480125817
Dry goods can be preserved with a food sealer, so it's handy to own a decent one
New-crop Akitakomachi, ¥1,699
Thought Sato's kirimochi (cut rice cakes) were cheap, then realized it's only 750g, lol
Cheap even for a sale, lol — what prefecture is this?
Limit 2 per family
Makes sense, can't have resellers (tenbaiya) swooping in and buying it all up
New-crop Fusakogane, ¥1,699
This year's super El Niño makes a record-low snowfall pretty likely
In past years following a super El Niño, low snowfall meant less groundwater and poor harvests from water shortages
On top of that, the earthquakes and flooding this year mean more regions won't be able to grow rice next year
Don't miss this chance to buy cheap — the odds of being able to buy at these prices again next year are pretty low
The Japan Meteorological Agency gets it wrong all the time — this year's Chiba downpour is a perfect example
If it gets expensive again, people will just shift back to foreign rice or wheat-based foods — that'll only accelerate the move away from rice
They need to scrap tariffs on both rice and wheat and fully liberalize the market
Lol, buying from a convenience store — you seem like the type who'd also blow money on pachinko and mobile gacha games
Domestic nori (seaweed) had a bad harvest and has gotten ridiculously expensive — might even cost more than the rice itself now, lol
They may have already switched to Korean nori
I used to buy from an onigiri specialty shop, but stopped once the label started saying "Made in Korea"
The thing that really should get a price cut is packaged rice (pack gohan)
If a brand doesn't bring that back down to pre-spike levels, I say boycott it
New-crop Koshihikari, ¥1,399
The past two years were just abnormal — it's still plenty expensive
Trend in retail rice prices
Everyone's just gotten numb to it — it's still expensive, you know?
https://imgur.com/CbXOZyA.jpeg
Background and Key Points of Discussion
The rice price surge that persisted from around 2024 — often dubbed the “Reiwa Rice Riot” — kept 2025-crop wholesale prices elevated. The 50% drop reported for the 2026 crop is being driven by a record-large harvest. Thread posters shared multiple photos of cheap Koshihikari as real-world examples, suggesting that actual prices vary significantly by region and purchase volume. At the same time, some pointed out that prices are still higher than pre-spike levels from two years ago (around ¥1,500 for 5kg), splitting opinion between those who saw the drop as substantial and those who saw it as only halfway there. One reply also noted the lesser-known rule that rice is only officially reclassified as “old rice” starting in November. Some argued that Japan’s broader move away from rice consumption, and the resulting drop in demand, is itself a factor in the price decline — suggesting a structural shift that a bumper harvest alone doesn’t fully explain.
*This article is excerpted and summarized from the 5ch (News Speed+) thread “[Rice] New-crop distribution begins at 50% off, 5kg in the upper ¥2,000 range, further declines expected.”
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