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The story
A discussion heated up on 5ch’s “Hardware/Industry” board (nicknamed “Geha”) over why Nintendo’s stock keeps rising. The thread’s original poster pointed to worrying factors like the weak yen, Japan’s declining birthrate, and soaring semiconductor prices, but other posters countered that the stock is “rallying in the opposite direction of the semiconductor sector,” and argued that even as AI makes it easier to churn out copycat games, Nintendo’s deep well of in-house IP makes it resilient. Others remained pessimistic about the company’s future, citing the shrinking birthrate and a constantly turning-over customer base, and the thread spun off into comparisons with other companies’ IP sales (like Gundam) and debates over Studio Ghibli’s business management — without ever reaching a consensus.
What people said
Somebody explain this to me
Weak yen
Declining birthrate
Weak yen
Declining birthrate
It's rallying against the semiconductor sector, probably? Dunno though
Re: #5
Is it really plausible that AI chip demand just vanishes?
Like everyone suddenly stops using ChatGPT and Gemini overnight,
investment in self-driving cars and robots dries up,
and we just snap back to a pre-AI world like nothing happened?
If anything we're still at the very beginning of the AI revolution
and if home consoles already smell this "washed up" at the starting line, that just screams a bleak future to me
Is it really plausible that AI chip demand just vanishes?
Like everyone suddenly stops using ChatGPT and Gemini overnight,
investment in self-driving cars and robots dries up,
and we just snap back to a pre-AI world like nothing happened?
If anything we're still at the very beginning of the AI revolution
and if home consoles already smell this "washed up" at the starting line, that just screams a bleak future to me
Someone who knows stocks,
explain the mechanism here
because any way you slice it, Nintendo looks rough
I'm not coming at this as a Sony fanboy or anything
I just think both Sony and Nintendo are in trouble going forward
explain the mechanism here
because any way you slice it, Nintendo looks rough
I'm not coming at this as a Sony fanboy or anything
I just think both Sony and Nintendo are in trouble going forward
Re: #6
From your perspective the stuff listed in Re: #1 looks like bad news, but the market and investors just see it differently, that's all
From your perspective the stuff listed in Re: #1 looks like bad news, but the market and investors just see it differently, that's all
Re: #6
If AI makes it easier to clone games themselves, then IP that can't be cloned becomes the valuable thing
and Nintendo, which is sitting on a mountain of that, gets seen as having a strong future, maybe?
Plus Ocarina of Time's remake is coming, then a movie after that, so the Zelda IP looks set to stay hot
If AI makes it easier to clone games themselves, then IP that can't be cloned becomes the valuable thing
and Nintendo, which is sitting on a mountain of that, gets seen as having a strong future, maybe?
Plus Ocarina of Time's remake is coming, then a movie after that, so the Zelda IP looks set to stay hot
Wasn't it like ¥90,000 before the stock split?
Re: #10
Before the split it was more like ¥50,000
Before the split it was more like ¥50,000
Plain and simple, the companies hurt most by rising chip prices are the ones making game hardware
Software-only companies might manage to survive
but even then, in an era of fewer kids, an aging population, and Japanese people getting poorer,
Nintendo — skewed toward kids and the domestic Japanese market — has to be the worst of the worst off
Even the Switch got a launch boost from 3D Mario and 3D Zelda early in its hardware life
and this time there isn't even that boost
This year's boost is going to PS5 and Xbox, riding on GTA6
and even that's basically the games industry's last fireworks show
it's plain to see PS6 is going to have it even harder than the Switch 2
Software-only companies might manage to survive
but even then, in an era of fewer kids, an aging population, and Japanese people getting poorer,
Nintendo — skewed toward kids and the domestic Japanese market — has to be the worst of the worst off
Even the Switch got a launch boost from 3D Mario and 3D Zelda early in its hardware life
and this time there isn't even that boost
This year's boost is going to PS5 and Xbox, riding on GTA6
and even that's basically the games industry's last fireworks show
it's plain to see PS6 is going to have it even harder than the Switch 2
Re: #17
Yeah, PS6 is definitely going to have a rough time, I'll give you that
but the rest is off the mark…
Well, if you really believe that, why not go buy some AI or memory stocks?
They're supposedly inversely correlated, so they should go up
By the way, Kioxia, which was flying high not long ago, is still in free fall
Yeah, PS6 is definitely going to have a rough time, I'll give you that
but the rest is off the mark…
Well, if you really believe that, why not go buy some AI or memory stocks?
They're supposedly inversely correlated, so they should go up
By the way, Kioxia, which was flying high not long ago, is still in free fall
That thing called "Astra" was wild — auto-generating indie-level games — but OpenAI itself is on record saying it'll keep posting tens of trillions of yen in losses going forward
Can they actually ever earn that back?
Can they actually ever earn that back?
Re: #22
Even if they can't earn it back, they can't stop now
China and everyone else are in the same boat
No telling where this all ends up though
Even if they can't earn it back, they can't stop now
China and everyone else are in the same boat
No telling where this all ends up though
Re: #16
That theory sounds fishy too, honestly
Ghibli-style AI art went viral on X
but Ghibli itself hasn't made a dime off it
if anything they're in such a slump they can barely put out a decent new film anymore
AI is churning out photorealistic gravure idol videos too
but the real-life gravure idols aren't benefiting from that at all — if anything demand for them looks set to keep shrinking
Still, Ghibli and the gravure idols might have it easy since they just slowly fade out
Console makers have to keep their foot on the gas until they've locked in a critical mass of users
being stuck dragging out hardware that isn't selling, unable to just fade away, that's the most painful spot to be in
That theory sounds fishy too, honestly
Ghibli-style AI art went viral on X
but Ghibli itself hasn't made a dime off it
if anything they're in such a slump they can barely put out a decent new film anymore
AI is churning out photorealistic gravure idol videos too
but the real-life gravure idols aren't benefiting from that at all — if anything demand for them looks set to keep shrinking
Still, Ghibli and the gravure idols might have it easy since they just slowly fade out
Console makers have to keep their foot on the gas until they've locked in a critical mass of users
being stuck dragging out hardware that isn't selling, unable to just fade away, that's the most painful spot to be in
Re: #27
IP isn't the same thing as an art style, so your comparison's off
explaining that from scratch is kind of a hassle though
IP isn't the same thing as an art style, so your comparison's off
explaining that from scratch is kind of a hassle though
Re: #27
This has nothing to do with AI at all — Ghibli's artisan mentality has always gotten in the way of the business side, they've been terrible at it from the start
Granted, the rise of AI doujin stuff hasn't made it any better either
but either way, it's just not a good example to use
This has nothing to do with AI at all — Ghibli's artisan mentality has always gotten in the way of the business side, they've been terrible at it from the start
Granted, the rise of AI doujin stuff hasn't made it any better either
but either way, it's just not a good example to use
Re: #33
Simply put, AI lets you mass-produce knockoff games
People are already making a huge fuss over Palworld, just one small indie outfit
but if China builds endless AI data centers, they could crank out knockoffs at 10,000x or even 100,000,000x Palworld's output
Looked at that way, just owning IP doesn't guarantee safety
if anything, like Ghibli or the gravure idols, you've got a rough future ahead unless you play your cards really well
Simply put, AI lets you mass-produce knockoff games
People are already making a huge fuss over Palworld, just one small indie outfit
but if China builds endless AI data centers, they could crank out knockoffs at 10,000x or even 100,000,000x Palworld's output
Looked at that way, just owning IP doesn't guarantee safety
if anything, like Ghibli or the gravure idols, you've got a rough future ahead unless you play your cards really well
Re: #37
Hmm… I bet China and that crowd are dreaming of exactly that
same with countries that can't produce their own IP, or the Hollywood camp that resents Japan's anime boom
but even if a flood of junk mass-produced IP gets born out of this, all it does is dump more garbage into storefronts that are already a dumping ground thanks to indies
Hmm… I bet China and that crowd are dreaming of exactly that
same with countries that can't produce their own IP, or the Hollywood camp that resents Japan's anime boom
but even if a flood of junk mass-produced IP gets born out of this, all it does is dump more garbage into storefronts that are already a dumping ground thanks to indies
Even if AI stocks crash, memory prices aren't going to come down
Re: #40
I heard China's going to start selling it cheap next year though
I heard China's going to start selling it cheap next year though
Saying Ghibli is 'playing it smart' is already off base
that studio is the textbook definition of bad at navigating business
even an all-time classic like Laputa was a box office flop in theaters
they disband the production team after every single film, so none of the know-how ever accumulates — it just leaks out every time
in later years it's basically just been 'let Miyazaki make whatever he feels like,' with zero regard for the company's survival or profits
that studio is the textbook definition of bad at navigating business
even an all-time classic like Laputa was a box office flop in theaters
they disband the production team after every single film, so none of the know-how ever accumulates — it just leaks out every time
in later years it's basically just been 'let Miyazaki make whatever he feels like,' with zero regard for the company's survival or profits
Re: #52
That's not it
Ghibli and the gravure idols were grouped together as 'cases where you're in trouble unless you play it smart'
not as examples of a successful 'playing it smart'
That's not it
Ghibli and the gravure idols were grouped together as 'cases where you're in trouble unless you play it smart'
not as examples of a successful 'playing it smart'
Precisely because they ARE playing it smart, they're not stuck living or dying on a single film the way Ghibli does — they diversify and leverage the content across multiple angles
Re: #57
Same goes for Bandai Namco — they actually cultivate their IP properly, I think they're genuinely doing it right
Same goes for Bandai Namco — they actually cultivate their IP properly, I think they're genuinely doing it right
The Dragon Quest brand used to be treated like something sacred too,
but the landscape can completely flip in about five years
consumers just don't place that much weight on brand loyalty
Maybe it's different for physical luxury goods that keep their value, like Hermès or Rolex…
but say a free PC knockoff of Kirby Air Ride comes out with 1,000x the content volume, people will flock to that instead
Sure, the middle-aged guys who grew up playing the original Air Ride as kids probably won't jump ship
but the thing is, those guys eventually graduate from gaming altogether, and Nintendo's defining trait is that its customer base keeps churning over
They're strong on IP and brand, but it's their fate to keep shedding the very customers who were attached to that IP and brand
but the landscape can completely flip in about five years
consumers just don't place that much weight on brand loyalty
Maybe it's different for physical luxury goods that keep their value, like Hermès or Rolex…
but say a free PC knockoff of Kirby Air Ride comes out with 1,000x the content volume, people will flock to that instead
Sure, the middle-aged guys who grew up playing the original Air Ride as kids probably won't jump ship
but the thing is, those guys eventually graduate from gaming altogether, and Nintendo's defining trait is that its customer base keeps churning over
They're strong on IP and brand, but it's their fate to keep shedding the very customers who were attached to that IP and brand
Re: #70
Even so, Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D still sold well. Its popularity hasn't faded at all
The only thing that's faded is Square Enix's management and Horii
Indie and small-studio games made with stuff like RPG Maker have been around forever, long before any of this AI trend
you're just cherry-picking that to arm your own argument
Even so, Dragon Quest 3 HD-2D still sold well. Its popularity hasn't faded at all
The only thing that's faded is Square Enix's management and Horii
Indie and small-studio games made with stuff like RPG Maker have been around forever, long before any of this AI trend
you're just cherry-picking that to arm your own argument
AI companies' earnings are good, but that's already priced in and there's no more good news left to come
if anything people are now talking about AI regulation and AI not being profitable
Nintendo's stock looking like it should rise but not quite rising, isn't that simply because its software lineup is weak?
Investors want another Breath of the Wild-caliber title, but that's setting the bar way too high
if anything people are now talking about AI regulation and AI not being profitable
Nintendo's stock looking like it should rise but not quite rising, isn't that simply because its software lineup is weak?
Investors want another Breath of the Wild-caliber title, but that's setting the bar way too high
Re: #78
Judging it by whether the "software is strong or weak" is exactly the kind of thing an amateur who picks stocks after watching some TV documentary would say
you're that type, aren't you. Geha (console-war board) is full of guys like that
Judging it by whether the "software is strong or weak" is exactly the kind of thing an amateur who picks stocks after watching some TV documentary would say
you're that type, aren't you. Geha (console-war board) is full of guys like that
Gundam is selling better overseas right now than it ever has
is "overseas" in your head only the US and Europe or something?
is "overseas" in your head only the US and Europe or something?
Re: #80
Gundam's revenue: ¥200 billion
Nintendo + Pokémon Company's revenue: ¥2.8 trillion
You should at least know they're not even in the same league
Gundam's revenue: ¥200 billion
Nintendo + Pokémon Company's revenue: ¥2.8 trillion
You should at least know they're not even in the same league
Re: #93
Even a grade-schooler could figure this out in a few seconds
Every bit of Nintendo's revenue comes from its own in-house IP
Bandai Namco's revenue, outside of Gundam, is mostly other companies' IP
If you think IP matters, that's the only number you need to be looking at
Even a grade-schooler could figure this out in a few seconds
Every bit of Nintendo's revenue comes from its own in-house IP
Bandai Namco's revenue, outside of Gundam, is mostly other companies' IP
If you think IP matters, that's the only number you need to be looking at
And then on your deathbed you realize it was an empty life spent chasing nothing but money
Re: #87
That's exactly why people trade stocks, no?
If you try to earn it the normal way by working, think how much of your life you'd burn away just for money
That's exactly why people trade stocks, no?
If you try to earn it the normal way by working, think how much of your life you'd burn away just for money
Re: #89
I cashed out stock I bought and forgot about back during the second wave of Abenomics,
and paid off my mortgage in full 😚
I'll be grateful to Sony and Capcom for the rest of my life 😆
I'm going to get the mortgage lien cleared next month
and celebrate with the refund at Jojoen (a yakiniku restaurant chain) 🥳
I cashed out stock I bought and forgot about back during the second wave of Abenomics,
and paid off my mortgage in full 😚
I'll be grateful to Sony and Capcom for the rest of my life 😆
I'm going to get the mortgage lien cleared next month
and celebrate with the refund at Jojoen (a yakiniku restaurant chain) 🥳
Re: #8
It's not going to disappear, but the moment people start thinking 'wait, is this even profitable?' it'll drop regardless of the actual results
It's not going to disappear, but the moment people start thinking 'wait, is this even profitable?' it'll drop regardless of the actual results
Re: #98
I mean, at this point semiconductors are basically a situation where everyone's piling up cash to fight over something that doesn't even exist yet
I mean, at this point semiconductors are basically a situation where everyone's piling up cash to fight over something that doesn't even exist yet
The stock dips every single time there's a Nintendo Direct, any real gamer knows stock price doesn't mean much
Background and Key Points of the Debate
The discussion rests on a backdrop where demand from AI data centers has driven up prices of memory and other semiconductors, squeezing the cost of building game console hardware. Within the thread, posters cited different figures for Nintendo’s pre-split stock price — “around ¥90,000” (post 10) and “around ¥50,000” (post 28) — and this article cannot confirm which is accurate. Opinion split mainly over whether a rise in AI-made copycat games is a tailwind or a headwind for an in-house-IP company like Nintendo: one camp argued that owning IP guarantees safety, while the other pointed to Ghibli and mass-produced AI IP as proof that “it all comes down to how well you play your cards.” It’s also worth noting, for readers less familiar with investing, that a stock’s rise or fall doesn’t always track neatly with a company’s actual earnings or user numbers.
※This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry, “Geha”) thread “Why Is Nintendo’s Stock Price Shooting Up So Abnormally.”
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