New Xbox Title ‘Gears E-Day’ Sells 230K Copies — 5ch: ‘With Game Pass, It’s Really 950K’

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The story

Overseas analytics firm Alinea Analytics estimated that the Xbox-exclusive title ‘Gears E-Day’ sold around 230,000 copies in its first week, sparking discussion on 5ch’s hardware/industry board (Geha). Thread participants pointed out that this figure doesn’t include the 722,000 Game Pass upgrades, suggesting the real number of paying users could be around 950,000. At the same time, many voiced doubts about the reliability of Alinea Analytics’ estimates themselves, and the debate spread to how the numbers should even be interpreted.

What people said

3AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:41
Despite far fewer sales on Steam, Xbox accounts for nearly three-quarters of revenue (about $26 million of $37 million, versus roughly $11 million on Steam). In other words, the "230,000 units" figure understates the number of paying users. Including the 722,000 upgrades, roughly 950,000 people actually paid for E-Day. E-Day is a great game (it's in my top 10), but at a time when Xbox desperately needs a revenue win, these numbers fall short for a flagship title. E-Day sold 62,000 copies on Xbox, with 722,000 premium upgrades — meaning for every one copy sold on Xbox, about 12 Game Pass upgrades were sold.
73AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:19
Re: #3
Re: #71
Can't even read, huh, you creep (5ch slang insult).
88AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:30
Re: #3
So overall it's still short of a million…
5AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:42
(@alineaanalytics estimate)

Enough with this garbage source already.
7AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:42
Estimate

[Sad news for Nintendo fanboys] "Marvel's Wolverine" apparently sold 6.16 million copies lol
https://krsw.5ch.io/test/read.cgi/ghard/1791588169/

They're really cranking out the fabricated puppet show this morning, huh.
12AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:44
These days the Warhammer 40K Space Marine series is getting praised for a similar style to Gears, and conversely, people are getting tired of the Naughty Dog style itself, so third-person shooters in general feel kind of stale.
It's getting harder for campaign-focused TPS games to stand out from the rest.
13AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:45
This.
This studio's getting shut down 100%.
Courtesy of Asha, the god of destruction (5ch nickname for a Microsoft/Xbox exec blamed for studio closures).
14AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:45
This is probably gonna rack up like 30 billion yen in losses, isn't it?
15AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:45
Xbox users keep going on and on about Game Pass, so numbers like this are inevitable.
16AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:46
Criminal mindset: "Say a lie 100 times and it becomes true."
37AnonymousOct 10, 2026 09:59
This is the hot topic everywhere overseas,
yet here's Mr. Creep running from reality.
42AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:02
Re: #37
The claim that it's "the hot topic" is already a lie.
Typical lying "Kizu-Ryutsu Namapo-kun" (5ch nickname for a poster known for spreading fake sales/distribution claims).
41AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:02
Sold better than I expected, gotta hand it to Xbox.
43AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:02
Re: #41
That's worldwide numbers, lol.
46AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:04
This series is basically on its last legs,
so they should've released it on PS too, just to grow the player base even a little.
48AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:04
Re: #46
Deep down you're just begging "gimme gimme."
49AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:05
But this ignores Game Pass revenue, doesn't it.
50AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:05
Re: #49
That kind of thing doesn't mean anything —
Asha herself said their profit is only a tenth of other companies',
remember?
52AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:07
Re: #50
The gaming division is already back on a growth track.
53AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:07
Re: #50
If it didn't matter, they wouldn't bother releasing a Game Pass upgrade path.
56AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:09
Alinea Analytics: "Wolverine tops 1.9 million"
https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/wolverine-sells-19m-despite-the-online

Alinea Analytics: "Gears sells 230K, even Game Pass Day 1 might be over"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUM0H-pXwAAn2ye.jpg


It's painfully obvious which company's paying for these headlines, lol.
61AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:11
Re: #56
Anyone who buys a game that's already on Game Pass is kind of a fool, so this is about right.
72AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:19
Re: #56
Though that's the same outlet that said Saros only sold 300,000.
57AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:09
It's a platform with a culture of "lol anyone who pays full price when you can play it free on Game Pass is an idiot," so honestly didn't it sell better than expected?
63AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:12
Re: #57
You keep dragging that point out, but you're the only one who's actually stung by it.
65AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:14
Re: #1
Asking this neutrally, but I see this site cited a lot on Geha — is it actually reliable?
This just seems way too low for sales.
Steam concurrent players were at 30K, so maybe that tracks?
Or is everyone else playing it on Game Pass and just not getting counted?
70AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:18
Re: #65
It's the only outlet in the world claiming Wolverine "sold a whopping 1.9 million copies" when everyone else is reporting it bombed hard — so yeah, totally reliable!
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHOH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf420d7-a539-4d25-ba23-5d6951d4ed78_1705x959.png
71AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:18
Re: #65
It's just Steam-only stats, and Game Pass users' revenue isn't counted at all.
And calling it an "estimate" is already a stretch — it's basically fantasy.
78AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:22
At least this made more profit than Sony's own first-party titles (the post uses a derogatory 5ch nickname for Sony).
82AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:24
Re: #78
They're over there building Skytowers just to tear them down, so there's no way they're turning a profit.
89AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:31
Even as a PC user, I think Xbox is in a rough spot.
I expect it to stay dead last from here on out.
92AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:32
Re: #89
Last Black Friday, this trash can (Xbox) lost to the Nex Playground and came in 4th place.
99AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:40
That's the same outlet that said 1.9 million — grew a lot, huh. The Gears 230K figure is also from them.
The guy doing the tallying keeps saying "Saros being exclusive boosts the platform's appeal, sales numbers don't matter," while in the same breath chanting "put Gears on PS5" over and over.
102AnonymousOct 10, 2026 10:42
Re: #99
The problem is it doesn't include Game Pass users' revenue, so it's just not credible.

Background and Key Points of This Discussion

The figure at the center of this discussion is an estimate that overseas analytics firm Alinea Analytics worked backward from earnings data and the like — it is not an official statistic released by the platform itself. Because Xbox’s business model leans more on monthly Game Pass subscriptions than on traditional retail sales, a simple “units sold” figure can’t capture the real number of users, and that became the thread’s central point of contention. Indeed, comment 3 showed that, separate from retail sales, there were more than 722,000 Game Pass upgrades, highlighting just how hard a simple comparison is. Notably, the same Alinea Analytics had, just days earlier, estimated sales of the PS5-exclusive title ‘Marvel’s Wolverine’ at 1.9 million copies, and several posts in the thread questioned the consistency and reliability of these estimates.

※This article is compiled and summarized from the 5ch (Hardware/Industry (Geha)) thread “Gears E-DAY sells 230K units — a huge bang of a flop wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.”

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